AI, Climate and Security: The New Triad of Geopolitical Power

In a world of melting glaciers, quantum chips, and cyber command bunkers, power is no longer defined by armies and oil alone. Historically, big countries battled mostly over military strength, energy resources, and industrial power. This isn't just a guess; it's already happening in the Arctic, the Indo-Pacific, and along borders that are sensitive to the environment. This triad has a huge impact. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that global surface temperatures have already risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. This has exacerbated major weather events and rendered entire regions less stable.

Climate change is a challenge for both the environment and national security, as more than 3.3 billion people live in areas exposed to it. AI's rapid expansion has transformed it from a specialized technology to a valuable asset. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that military AI applications will cost more than $35 billion per year by 2028.

In 2023, global AI investment reached $166 billion. Concerns about climate security are already having an effect on the world. The World Bank says that climate change could force 216 million people to move to other countries by 2050. The countries that can best use AI to make climate predictions, help with the energy transition, and build infrastructure that can adapt will control important chokepoints in this new world order. As climate shocks worsen and AI reshapes global military architecture, India is at the crossroads of this evolving power balance.

Strategic Application of AI and Climate

Climate change is speeding up, which makes environmental problems more important than ever for national security. Extreme weather, rising sea levels, a lack of resources, and damage to the environment are already making supply lines less reliable. This is forcing people to move and making tensions in the region worse. The idea that climate change is a "threat multiplier" is now part of a lot of security material.

AI has evolved from a nice piece of technology to a valuable tool for statecraft. We use powerful AI models to predict climate shocks and water shortages, manage energy networks, and provide early warning systems for national security. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), artificial intelligence (AI) can help us understand more about the hazards of climate change, develop effective responses, and strengthen communities.

Developed countries are increasingly leveraging AI-powered climate knowledge to strengthen their resilience plans. According to the US Department of Defense (DoD) “Climate Risk Analysis,”  climate change poses a substantial threat to future capabilities, alliances, and competition.

The International Electricity Agency (IEA) believes AI can help make the electricity grid safer and more reliable, but it also claims the demand for data centers is growing too quickly. Subsequently, SIPRI says that countries that have AI technologies, data, and infrastructure will have a structural advantage when it comes to climate security. This combination is changing how states think about future crises and how they use force ahead of time instead of reacting.

Great Power Competition in the AI-Climate Space.

Nuclear capability determined twentieth-century power hierarchies, while AI-climate capability is shaping twenty-first-century strategic hierarchies. The United States is integrating AI into its defense, diplomatic, and energy resiliency strategies. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) seeks to integrate sustainable energy transitions with digital collaboration, with climate as a key strategic pillar. Beijing sees AI-climate technology as a way to consolidate regional power.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funds green infrastructure projects that include energy, climate technology, and surveillance/AI components. These projects create dependencies that link energy security and digital architecture. Brussels wants to be seen as the regulatory superpower. This triangle dynamic extends beyond technology and climate action to include who sets legislation, controls supply networks, and shapes the strategic future.

India and the Global South: Strategic Balancers.

For the Global South, particularly those like the Republic of India, the AI-climate-security nexus represents both a risk and an opportunity. The Indian government is developing AI-powered early warning systems for floods, droughts, and excessive heat.

Through the International Solar Alliance, India positions itself as a green-energy leader among developing countries. Furthermore, India is balancing partnerships with the United States, Europe, and China while developing indigenous climate-tech infrastructure and data analytics capabilities. Beyond India, climate-vulnerable countries in the Global South are increasingly utilizing AI-driven resilience and adaptation as a strategic tool in multilateral forums. Access to AI-driven climate solutions and financing has become a top priority. This indicates a shift in how developing countries interact with major powers, not merely as recipients of assistance, but also as agenda setters.

Geopolitical Implications: The New Architecture of Power

The rise of the AI, climate, and security trifecta is reshaping power in numerous ways. Security is becoming more ecologically mindful. Climate change is no longer an external problem; it is embedded in strategic planning, defense doctrines, and national security organizations. Technology is becoming geopolitical capital. Control over AI, data flows, and analytical capability determines which regimes can leverage resilience into power. Climate change will shape geoeconomics.

Supply chains, trade agreements, and investments are becoming more tied to green technologies and energy transitions, bringing climate into the geoeconomic domain. The strategic alignments will shift. States that successfully integrate climate security and AI governance are more likely to build new coalitions, often crossing old alliance lines.

The Road Ahead

In the coming decade, AI-driven climate adaptation will assist in determining which countries preserve strategic stability and which resort to reactive crisis management. This trinity has already influenced defense strategy, commercial negotiations, and multilateral diplomacy.

However, the essential question for policymakers in India is no longer whether AI, climate change, and security are interconnected—but who will take the lead in weaving them together to create a cohesive, strategic force. The solution to that question includes a map of future global influence.