A Fragile Truce

US President Donald Trump has a ceasefire he wanted, although he would have liked two more. The anger he unleashed on Israel—for planning to retaliate to three Iranian missiles fired after the ceasefire was announced—before leaving for the NATO summit in the Netherlands did bring the IDF’s pilots back. But what will the Iranians do now? Iran wasn’t made to give any commitments. If it doesn’t resume cooperation with the IAEA, it means Tehran plans to salvage its nuclear programme. Despite the bunker busters that penetrated Fordo, nobody quite knows where the regime has kept its 400kg of enriched uranium. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emerged from hiding to claim victory on June 26 but surely found a nation much changed, with the regime’s fragility writ large. Israel, too, is battered, with 28 people killed in Iranian missile strikes while 600 Iranians reportedly died. Given the enmity between Israel and the Islamic Republic, the “12-day war” remains a part of an enduring conflict that isn’t over. As long as Iran refuses to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist and Israel perceives an existential threat, vigilance will be needed every minute.

Are Iran’s Nuclear Sites Obliterated or Degraded?

Donald Trump is a military strategist’s nightmare. The president doth say too much—before and after. Trump’s claims of having “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites were belied by an initial assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) which said Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back by a month or two at most. Its enriched uranium stocks remain unharmed. The White House dismissed the DIA report as “flat out wrong” but then told the UN Security Council that the facilities had been “degraded’, well short of Trump’s claims of obliteration. The Israeli military’s assessment was closer to early US intelligence that the strikes severely damaged Fordo but didn’t destroy it. That’s surviving twelve 30,000-pound bunker-busters. Pentagon bosses, of course, echoed the president’s claims, under allegations of pressure. And then, the CIA chief claimed the strikes had “severely damaged” Iran’s nuclear programme based on “new intelligence”, followed by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth slamming the media. In the maelstrom of competing claims, as the assessments continue, who will emerge the closest to the truth? Not all the president’s men and women.

The Shaken Axis

China built the Isfahan nuclear facility; North Korea designed Iran’s underground tunnels; hundreds of Russian nuclear experts work in Iran. Yet, Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang aren’t coming to the assistance of Tehran, which completes the anti-Western axis. They can rebuild all that Iran has lost and restock its conventional arms. But the military insertion of the US in the Israel-Iran conflict has changed their calculations for now. China, as Trump said, can continue to take Iranian oil thanks to the ceasefire. The geopolitical risks of helping Tehran right now are too high. But what the axis eventually does will determine war and peace from Korea and Taiwan to the Middle East.

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