In an interesting aside, Hegseth told American generals on March 2 to “stay focused” and “don’t listen to the noise”. What noise? Was it disturbing noise from the war he had started?

WAR AIMS MUST BE tethered to clarity and capability. This applies equally to Iran. Can the Ayatollahs, convulsed by pain and rage, measure the difference between reach and overreach? They might have considered it tactically necessary to send a violent message to the Gulf, since they are convinced that the Saudis played a crucial role in persuading Trump to attack Khamenei when talks were on the point of success, as Omani mediators have indicated. But an unremitting offensive against the Arab Gulf can only mean a consolidation of resources against an isolated Iran.

For Israel, this war has been a special bonus. It has unleashed American might on Iran, turned the Gulf into an active belligerent, and provided another opportunity to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Israel, too, must calculate the distance between reach and overreach. Miscalculation can be dangerous in an inflammatory environment.

Trump rules through press conferences. On occasions this week he has seemed apprehensive. He admitted, for there is little that he does not reveal, that he had never expected Iran to hit Arab states. But he certainly does not want to emerge second-best from the debris, which includes economic consequences as energy prices rise and panic hits financial assets worldwide.

The Washington planning room did not keep sufficient space for the boomerang propelled by unintended consequences. The litany began at home with public doubt and played out among American allies. The Pakistani street rose from a long slumber, leading to violence, deaths and curfew. Dozens of Pakistanis have been killed by police and guards during demonstrations at American missions. Trump’s “favourite general” Asim Munir, Pakistan’s de facto ruler, has become guilty by association. Events have exposed the colossal strategic confusion among decision-makers. Within a few hours Islamabad expressed solidarity with Iran against America, and with Saudi Arabia against Iran. There was no sign, incidentally, of Pakistan rushing military assistance to Saudi Arabia after Iran’s drones hit the Aramco refineries and targets in Riyadh. Was the military alliance between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for peacetime purposes? On Wednesday Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, admittedly not a renowned intellectual, discovered a secret alliance between Iran, Afghanistan, and India to destroy Pakistan.

The Gulf, confident that American bases were synonymous with safety, has discovered that Israel precedes them by some distance in the security queue. The Gulf’s reputation as a secure haven for everything from tourism to taxation is in tatters. If the economy of the region implodes, it will impact stability.

America’s alliance with Europe is under further strain. Trump has declared that the special relationship with Britain is over, after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pointed out the obvious, that no regime can be changed from the air. France has described the killing of Khamenei as “illegitimate”. President Emmanuel Macron announced an increase in France’s nuclear arsenal, implying that America’s nuclear umbrella could no longer be trusted. Europe has reason for grief. It expected Trump to fund and arm Ukraine against Russia; instead America has chosen what is already proving to be a difficult war against Iran.

In the ultimate unintended consequence, the biggest gainer of this war is going to be Vladimir Putin and Russia. Suddenly, there are no weapons for Ukraine in the pipeline as all supplies go to West Asia. All sanctions on Russia suddenly become meaningless as nations seek energy from wherever they can find it. Oil prices are rising, which will bulk up Moscow’s financial resources.

Who would have known that the death of one man could change the world so much, and so rapidly?

As a young man he was known for his love of Persian poetry, and played the traditional stringed instrument known as the tar; as a cleric and political leader Khamenei understood war. He was president of Iran for the decade of the war with Iraq in the 1980s, in which his country lost over half-a-million dead, was driven to extreme privation but never surrendered to Saddam Hussein, then backed by America. He was nearly killed in 1981 when a rival political group planted a bomb in a tape recorder at the Abuzar mosque in Tehran. It damaged his arm, lungs and vocal chords, but convinced him that God had saved him for a greater mission. Iran’s leaders accept death in war with more equanimity than most others because they believe shahadat, or martyrdom, leads to heaven. Shaheed is the highest accolade in Shia iconography. The last time I visited Tehran, more than a year after their hero-general Qasem Soleimani of the IRGC was killed in an air strike ordered by Trump on January 3, 2020, the city was adorned with hoardings showing him in paradise. Khamenei’s death on the 10th of Ramadan was described as “dignified”; he was lauded as “an inspiring legend in the history of Iran and Islam”. The official statement added, ominously: “He will remain a living nightmare for his killers forever.”

War breeds chaos, but chaos does not have borders. West Asia is a region of regimes living in status-quo comfort zones. When war destroys the status quo, change can go viral.

Iran After the Imam

War on Iran: The Axis of Resistance Has Broken

War on Iran: Enter the War President

The Afterlife of Ali Khamenei

The Rites of Freedom In Tehran