The US-Saudi Rapprochement

 The guest was more restrained than his exuberant host. But for all that, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Saudi Arabia are back in America’s best books. That’s not a bad thing geopolitically from the US point of view, as the Saudis had been inching ever closer to China, doing joint military exercises with the PLA and, not long ago, willing to bury the hatchet with Tehran.

Turned into a pariah in DC and the capitals of the West by the Biden administration, with retrospective regret, MBS always held the cards and was clever enough to bide his time. After all, the White House would need help with oil prices, to say nothing of diplomatic navigation. But it is one thing to sell Riyadh F-35 stealth fighters and another to say, even in Trump’s apparently unthinking way, that the US would come to the defence of Saudi Arabia under attack. Such commitment to war is usually thought through. Nevertheless, the rapprochement is good news for Israel despite the fact that MBS is holding out against joining the Abraham Accords without a return to the two-state roadmap. And Trump is not helping Riyadh with civilian nuclear energy yet, given Saudi ambitions of chasing nuclear weapons.

 Who’s Afraid of Sanae Takaichi?

If China invaded Taiwan, the resulting war, with or without US involvement, would be catastrophic for Japan. Because there would be a blockade disrupting trade, stopping food and energy imports without which Japan cannot function. That’s why Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave a frank answer to a Diet member’s question whether a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening” situation envisioned in a 2015 law under which Japan might have to take military action. The Chinese response was immediate and out of control. Unprintable abuse was heaped on Japan’s first woman prime minister from official social media accounts and even by diplomats. The outburst of the wolf warriors was followed by Chinese tour­ists and professionals being told to stay away, temporary snapping of business ties, and aggressive Chinese coast guard patrols around Japan. Beijing’s reaction is usually over-the-top at any unfavourable mention of its designs on Taiwan but perhaps the CCP is worried that given time, Takaichi, the hawkish protégée of Shinzo Abe, will further harden Japan’s evolving military doctrine. Thus it would make sense, as Walter Russell Mead argues in the Wall Street Journal, to weaken her by making her political op­ponents panic. Will Takaichi, with ambitions of being Iron Lady 2.0, yield to bullying?

 Ocean of Spies

The Yantar is at it again. The alleged Russian spy ship, owned by the defence minis­try, was escorted out of Dutch waters soon after it stopped broadcasting its location north of the Latvian coast in early November. Now, the Yantar has used lasers to disrupt RAF pilots in pursuit north of Scotland. Taking serious note of the lasers, UK Defence Secretary John Healey said military options were ready should the vessel change course: “My mes­sage to Russia and to Putin is this: we see you. We know what you’re doing.” Russia says the Yantar is a research vessel but NATO believes it maps undersea cables, with a mandate of surveillance in peacetime and sabotage during conflict.