The Trump Coalition Unravels

The killing of two US citizens in Minneapolis may have pushed immigra­tion politics to the tipping point, and the January 27 attack on Representative Ilhan Omar wasn’t good publicity either. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have crashed by 18 points. Support for abolish­ing ICE has increased by 50 points since September.

The sacking of Greg Bovino as commander of US border control was evidence the administration recognised its handling of immigration, one of the two major planks that helped Trump win in November 2024, was backfiring. In fact, district after district is slipping away from MAGA. The strongest evidence so far is the New York Times/SienapollofJanuary22 (published before the shoot­ing of nurse Alex Pretti) that shows only 40 per cent registered voters approve of Trump’s performance while 56 per cent disapprove. As NYT’s Nate Cohn writes: “The major demographic shifts of the last election have snapped back.” Meaning, non-white and young voters (69 per cent disapproval) who had flocked to Trump have swung back.

Trump’s current ratings are lower than on the eve of the 2020 election. Still, it was a surprise to hear him talk of “de-escalation” and change course. The “Trump Realignment” seems to be history even as the president completes a year in office. But there’s a reason bigger than ICEscapades: cost of living. Trump was also elected to tackle inflation. He has delivered nada on that score.