The Lame Duck Who Won’t Act Like One

Donald Trump is gathering his wits and Republicans the wreckage. The people have paid Trump back in his own coin, handing him a rude, crude shock. With a solid electoral punch after two years of broken promises, failed policies and a deeply unpopular war, the repudiation was so complete that a president known for questioning election results was chastened into acceptance.

But only in the immediate aftermath. Within six days of defeat in the midterms, Trump had revived charges of election fraud, saying early voting (which generally favours Democrats) made it “impossible” for Republicans to win. “Does anybody really believe this “Election” was honest?” he wrote on Truth Social, casting doubt on the legitimacy of polls, voting machines and ultimately the people’s decision.

Here we go again, said the weary. Groans could be heard coast to coast. Is he delusional or just dishonest? Take your pick. Will the next two years be used to beat the same dead horse he has been beating since 2020—that the election was stolen and the votes flew into his rival’s box? Or was this a bone thrown to MAGA to rejuvenate them from defeat and get energised?

It feels familiar and like the old Trump. He may be a bit wounded and a bit caged by circumstances but not enough to change course, rebuild and reconnect to the people. He may be a lame duck but he won’t act like one. He will double down, defend his discredited policies and fight back. The essential Trump stays.

Although he admitted that the Iran War was partially to blame for the Republican rout, he declared he would do it again because it was “the right thing”. Make of that what you will but after more than eight months of a war that has crippled oil supplies to the entire world, he has no qualms about it.

The extreme self-assurance means more rounds of war than peace and therefore periods of instability for the world. Nothing in the past two years should give anyone confidence he will approach Iran with the required discipline and strategic clarity.

The proposed trilateral summit of the US, China and Russia in Shenzhen to sort out the two wars has already run into trouble. Trump wants a free-wheeling meeting to discuss an array of topics, including nuclear arms control (an attempt at legacy building) but Xi Jinping has demanded a tightly scripted meeting with pre-determined announcements. Still, a G3 summit of great powers to attempt to negotiate a new global order means India must remain watchful and flexible.

China, India, Pakistan

How Trump deals with China given the Nvidia scandal and Democratic demands to curb sale of AI chips to Beijing will be something to monitor as his policy of accommodation faces a major stress test. Will he continue to barter chips for soybeans? Congressional Republicans are not China fans and tighter export controls could be an important area of bipartisan cooperation for the new Congress to try to rein in the White House.

India will carefully study the turbulence, no doubt, but at the same time Delhi must engage more deeply with all shades of Washington. Questions on its foreign and domestic policy will multiply. Democrats will ask about New Delhi’s crackdown on protesters, state of minority rights and curbs on media freedom as they try to repair the damage to US-India relations under Trump.

As the incoming Congress investigates Trump’s friends, family and their many sweetheart deals, Pakistan and his favourite field marshal is bound to come under the spotlight. Asim Munir personally facilitated access for the many questionable characters who rushed to Pakistan to make a quick buck. As details surface, Munir’s reputation will take a beating as the focus shifts from his utility to his conduct at home, especially with regard to the continued imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Trump too will face questions about government corruption—a major issue for nine out of 10 voters this election. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise given the number of shady deals and pay-to-play schemes in the public domain. Trump’s net worth reportedly went up by $3 billion in one year. When asked about it, his response was a version of “Let them eat cake.” It’s your fault if you don’t own stocks as he does or have access to inside information.

Cruel and Unusual Punishment

After the midterm debacle, Trump also admitted that harsh crackdowns on illegal immigrants had “hurt” Republicans but within hours promoted Stephen Miller, the architect of those very policies, as his chief of staff. That’s not a mea culpa but a sign of battle-readiness.

In Trump’s view, the backlash wasn’t a referendum on his policies; it was the absence of his presence. “The biggest issue is that I wasn’t on the ballot.” Period. He may actually believe it because his reality is so different and uniquely crafted. With an approval rating of 37 per cent, only he could imagine his name would do the magic.

Post mortems of the Republican collapse will continue as Democrats celebrate the “Blue-nami” and plan their legislative assault. The idea is to push back against Trump’s tariffs, put conditions on defence spending and force accountability.

Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war, is in line for impeachment.

With both houses of Congress under their control, Democrats can restrain the president but only to a degree. What that degree might be will depend on their legislative savvy, ability to stay united and stick to their message on affordability and accountability and not go on excursions on culture war issues. The tussle between the leftists and the moderates to set the agenda and push for their favourite causes can exact a toll.

Dems are eager to score a few quick wins. Trump’s tariffs on Canada are on top of the list. Removing them could provide some relief to American consumers. But their ability to refashion presidential trade authority and claw back power over trade policy is limited. Besides, Trump would be ready with his veto. To override it, Democrats need Republican votes which are not guaranteed. And that is where the game will likely be played since Democrats don’t have a two-thirds, veto-proof majority.

In the ensuing confusion, countries that have not signed a trade deal such as India might benefit. But it is important to remember that economic nationalism is here to stay and animates both parties. Democrats can be just as demanding on trade issues.

As of now Democrats have 254 seats in the House to Republicans’ 164, with some results still to come. In the Senate, Democrats dominate 54-44, with two seats yet to be declared.

A New Republican Party?

What do the 2026 results mean for Trump’s one-sided relationship with his party? Is the era of fear and silent loathing over? Old-school Republicans are hoping the current lot grows a spine but there are no early signs of that yet. A public break-up with Trump is currently unimaginable except for those retiring.

Republicans who survived the tsunami and won their seats will likely continue to work in his shadow.

Many have privately declared the demise of MAGA and talked of a need for a reset but so far, they have spoken only via surrogates. They built their identity around Trump, voted for his war and approved most of his agenda. Besides, he will continue to wield influence and control their future as 2028 draws closer. They know the man and his appetite to punish. They wouldn’t want to gamble with their future. Vice President JD Vance was an exception in publicly blaming the Iran War as the cause of disaster and some say he may have permanently lost favour.

Future Tense

The next two years will be bumpy and unpredictable, as everything with Trump generally is. He will want to secure his legacy. Building monuments to himself may be necessary but not sufficient. Matters of war and peace are more seductive and a clearer path to a Nobel Peace prize, which he still wants. Will he go on a new foreign adventure to divert attention or escalate the Iran War to bring Tehran to the table in a final attempt to find an exit route?

Some say Trump might play nearer home and force ‘regime change’ in Cuba, which already is under tremendous US pressure, to tighten America’s grip on the western hemisphere. Marco Rubio, secretary of state, national security advisor and son of Cuban immigrants, would like nothing better than to flaunt Havana as a hole-in-one to brighten his presidential prospects for 2028. Miller, the new and powerful chief of staff, would enthusiastically agree.

Miller has used his power and proximity to Trump to influence both domestic and foreign policy. He was an active proponent of tariff wars and blamed Canada and Mexico for depleting America’s manufacturing capacity. He called the so-called liberation day tariffs the “most important economic event of our lifetime.”

Miller can conjure extrajudicial actions without difficulty. Last year he pushed for the controversial strikes on boats off the shores of Central America that killed more than 240 people and not all of them were drug dealers. He has openly defended the overthrow of foreign governments and grabbing of resources as part of real-world politics. Some would call it imperialism.

Hakeem Jeffries, who is expected to take over as speaker of the House, called Miller a “dangerous xenophobe” who should have been fired, not promoted. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate, said making Miller even more powerful showed Trump had “learned nothing” from Republican losses.

It appears to be the case. In sum, it’s best to prepare for a more Trumpian Trump and hope for a lesser one.

(Seema Sirohi is a Washington-based columnist and the author of Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story)