The Globetrotter: Two Nations under Trump
Perhaps it’s in the nature of things that every election in the Americas will turn into a civil war when Donald Trump looms over it. A polarised Brazil didn’t so much vote on October 4 as choose sides as Flávio Bolsonaro took nearly 47 per cent of the first round vote to Lula’s 45. The runoff on October 25 may be too close to call but on it hinges Brasilia’s worldview. With Lula, it’s a multipolar-leaning Brazil, wary of Washington, friendly with Beijing. Bolsonaro Jr would swing the South American giant behind Trump, joining the Shield of the Americas with Argentina and El Salvador. Four years ago, Lula had barely defeated Jair Bolsonaro whose 27-year sentence for plotting a coup will end overnight if his son wins the runoff. While Lula is backed by the poor, Catholic and northeastern communities, the Bolsonaros draw their power from the affluent south, the business classes and evangelical Christians, although the last don’t inhabit the same geography of affluence. Class and creed have sorted Brazilians into near-neat, mutually hostile demographies. The irony is that Trump’s bullying, including tariffs and visa bans, helped Lula milk bruised Brazilian pride. But it wasn’t enough. The winner on October 25 will inherit half a country, a republic of two nations.
Kidding the Barricades
What began in late September at a single lycée in Créteil, over teacher shortages and threadbare resources, snowballed into students blocking gates from Lille to Marseille. Protests in France have a tendency to become larger than their causes. Bins burning, projectiles flying, police using batons and tear gas, a student’s hand blowing off—little of this would be extreme by French standards. About 2,000 lycées were blockaded or disrupted, with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu reporting 215 pupils and 85 staff hurt, plus 715 officers; and over 5,000 arrested, mostly minors. Yet, beyond condemning the violence and defending the police, there was nothing concrete on offer from the government.
Reckoning on the Red Sea
The last time Riyadh’s patience ran out, in 2015, the Saudis couldn’t finish the job. Saudi patience ran out again and Yemen’s government has embarked on Operation Dawn of Yemen to take back territory from the Houthis, supported by Saudi air power. Within a day, government forces claimed ground along the Bab el-Mandeb coast and Mokha followed while Taiz remained contested. But the Houthis seized Al Turbah, cutting the road to Aden. That’s why caution is warranted about the claims as the Houthis still hold Sanaa and rule almost 70 per cent of Yemenis. Their missiles and drones keep landing on Saudi airports and Aramco sites. Yet the stakes couldn’t be starker. With Hormuz shut, Saudi crude diverted to Yanbu and out through the Red Sea, the Houthis’ blockade took that lifeline hostage. If Bab el-Mandeb were to be closed entirely, about 7 per cent of global supply would vanish. And even then, oil prices wouldn’t be the biggest worry. It’s the precedent that is the greater danger: a militia that can throttle one strait, while its patron throttles another, has rewritten the rules of maritime leverage. The Houthis must be beaten, and not only for Yemen’s sake.
Shipping lanes cannot belong to whoever owns the nearest missile.