Patience Pays: The midterm results could mark the beginning of a more stable phase in India-US ties

The November 9 phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underlined India’s starting points for a peace process a day ahead of US-brokered talks scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi. Aware that several actors are involved in the prolonged hostilities that have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, the Indian position took into account interests of both Ukraine and Russia and stressed the benefits for countries of the global South in particular. A truce might seem distant but a meaningful start amid the haze of distrust and uncertainty that separates the two combatants would count as progress.

The actionable points India placed before Ukraine and Russia – external affairs minister S Jaishankar conveyed the gist to Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov within hours of the Modi-Zelenskyy call – begin with mutual restrictions on drone and missile attacks in the Black Sea. Ukraine, often referred to as the granary of the world, needs to move wheat stocks that are a lifeline to many countries in Africa. Russia too needs to secure oil and gas cargoes leaving Black Sea terminals and ports. Russia is also a major exporter of wheat. The possibility of a “food corridor” mentioned by the Ministry of External Affairs aims to open sea lanes based on the “no attack” principles outlined in conversations with Ukraine and Russia.

Indian’s diplomacy with regard to the Ukraine war has stepped up in terms of its direct engagement, with MEA spokesperson Randhir Jasiwal informing the media that New Delhi is in touch with other interlocutors as well. Indian embassies have been busy conveying the Modi government’s approach in European capitals, emphasizing India’s access to Kyiv and Moscow. The pro-active measures signal India is not just offering platitudes while it continues to purchase Russian oil but is serious about reducing tensions and initiating a viable peace process. The Russian foreign ministry acknowledged the Jaishankar-Lavrov conversation with a brief two-paragraph statement that noted that “The two ministers discussed current issues of Russia-India cooperation, as well as relevant regional and international affairs.”

Modi has spoken to Zelenskyy twice in August setting out India’s commitment to a peaceful settlement of the conflict and while the Modi-Zelenskyy call may not have a direct bearing on the results of the midterm elections in the United States, India’s keenness to engage with the principal adversaries is evident. In the immediate aftermath of Republicans losing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, President Donald Trump has struck a seemingly conciliatory chord and in a rare admission accepted the war on Iran and its impact on gas prices as well as the drive for mass deportation of illegals being too tough hurt Republicans. He has expressed a willingness to work with incoming Democratic majorities while warning against subpoenas and investigations targeting his administration. Trump’s second term in office has been marked by heightened unilateralism as he rode roughshod over allies and partners who will find his humbling as not an unwelcome development. India has been at the receiving end of Trump’s capriciousness ranging from tariff bullying to an opportunistic cozying up to Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir who he has described as his “favourite field marshal.” The Modi government has had to work hard to assert its strategic autonomy in buying Russian oil in the face of American pressure before the inflationary fallout of the Iran war forced Trump to source diesel from Moscow. The increasingly abusive attitude of the MAGA crowd towards Americans of Indian origin was another sore point even as restrictions on work visas hurt Indian nationals.

US presidents have vast powers over foreign policy and a section of commentators estimate the days following midterm results have seen just some preliminary jousting. The Democratic agenda will almost certainly include hostile actions and this means acrimony and bickering are round the corner. Defence secretary Pete Hegseth’s aggressive reaction to moves to “impeach” him could indicate a stormy final two years for the Trump presidency. Having placed himself alongside the tallest of US presidents, Trump would not like to leave office humbled and defeated. At the same time, his statement ruling out military action against Iran immediately cooled oil prices, bringing them below $ 90 a barrel, providing relief for India. This could mean Trump understands that renewing high tempo military action will be unpopular at home, prompting him to persist with economic measures. Though the US President is keen to get out of the conflict with Iran, the stakes have been raised by hardliners in Tehran who demand America lift its naval blockade, unfreeze Iran’s accounts and lift the embargo on oil. So, while an early end to the conflict is not in sight, Trump’s reduced room for military action could mean a period of relative calm as reflected in falling crude prices.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has spoken of a QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) leaders meeting in Manila in mid-November on the sidelines of a ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) summit which the White House is yet to confirm. But the chances are high that the QUAD leaders will meet and this will provide an opportunity for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address the gathering while Trump can be expected to set out his thoughts on the Indo-Pacific and China. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have already met twice this year and are expected to meet again when the US President travels to Shenzhen after he attends the November 15-17 ASEAN discussions. After the midterm rout, which included Republican bastion Texas falling to the Democrats, Trump will need to guard against the impression that he is not standing up to China’s geo-political ambitions. As it is, the popular verdict is that both Xi and Russian leader Vladimir Putin have got the better of Trump. US caution on China should help India pursue its options for cooperation with Trump. Though there is a definite note of caution in India’s engagement with the US, there is a pragmatic preparedness to work on common areas of interest during the remainder of Trump’s term even as MEA points to a “bi-partisan” consensus over relations with India. On its part, Indian missions have actively cultivated ties with US politicians across the spectrum.

Within a few months of Trump’s second term, the Modi government began to pursue alternate export markets and quickened negotiations for trade deals with developed nations. Trump’s claims to have ended the May 7-10, 2025, India-Pakistan hostilities and his attempt to invite Modi to the White House at the same time he was hosting General Munir were a low point in ties. Modi categorically denied any third party role in ending the confrontation with Pakistan during a well-publicised phone call with Trump and this led to a fairly lengthy freeze that began to thaw only after Sergio Gor– a confidant of the US President– was appointed Ambassador and arrived in India in January, 2026. There is now an opportunity to cement ties while continuing the hedging policy that has been India’s guiding mantra. India will look to a dialing down on actions such as onerous restrictions on Indian companies and workers as also offensive rhetoric such as US Vice President JD Vance’s reference to qualified H1 B employees as foreign indentured workers. The interactions at Manila will set the tone for a likely Modi-Trump bilateral in Florida in December on the sidelines of the G 20 summit meeting.

Even before the midterm shock, Rubio’s visit to India in October, his second this year, sought to smoothen some of the jagged edges in India-US ties. His visit to Jamnagar where he met Reliance Industries supremo Mukesh Ambani drew conflicting reactions. On the one hand, questions were asked whether India’s top business house was now “conducting” foreign relations on behalf of the government. But on the other hand, the meeting in Jamnagar underscored US need for investments in its oil industry and a desire to find markets for heavy Venezuelan crude. Rubio’s meeting was a snub to tech czar Elon Musk who had lashed out over delays in his Starlink satellite communication system receiving permission to operate in India by derisively calling the Reliance chairperson “Prime Minister Ambani.” Rubio’s visit and Trump’s decision to hold in abeyance a law empowering him to impose 100% tariffs on countries that import oil from Russia point to an easing of tensions in India-US relations. At a time when the US is trying to wriggle out of the Iran war, bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine and balance ties with China, picking fresh fights with India does not make much sense despite an inherent unpredictability in Trump’s manner of functioning.

On November 5, deputy chairman of Iranian Parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee Amir Hayat Moqaddam announced that India along with China, Iraq and Qatar will be exempt from “transit restrictions” in the Strait of Hormuz. “Ships from these countries pass freely and the Americans do not restrict them either,” he said. The decision comes in the wake of Iran securing access to medicines and pharma products from India. The Iranian safe passage will greatly restore India’s ability to source oil and gas from the Gulf states as though it has significantly diversified access, this comes at enhanced costs. In the months following the US tariff impositions, Indian exporters have found newer destination while also reworking their supply routes to America through partners in third countries. The ingenuity of Indian exporters and dozens of policy and duty tweaks by the Indian government softened tariff shocks and protected the economy from severe economic dislocation.

The changed complexion of the US Congress means Trump will find confirmation of top level appointments an uphill task if his choices are strongly ideological. For example, making an appointment like Hegseth can almost certainly be ruled out. On the foreign policy front, a Democrat-controlled Congress will hold back on funding Trump’s wars. In fact, many Democrat leaders read the mandate as a public desire to end the Iran war and keep the US out of messy conflicts that have resulted in the price of fuel and groceries shooting up. The Trump project’s cultural agenda, built around a nativist “America for Americans” has not been entirely dumped by voters but the push back from “progressives” evident along with the desertion of voting blocs – including a sizable section of Indian Americans – who supported Trump in 2024. These trends are no longer just straws in the wind and can assume the force of a hurricane as the next US presidential election draws closer. The midterms are bound to stir the Republican camp as well with leaders unhappy with Trump’s ways sensing an opportunity to win back the party and move more to the Centre.