Ali Larijani: The Hardline Pragmatist

 The assassination of Ali Larijani on March 17 has plunged the Iranian leadership into deep crisis as its most experienced policymaker has been removed. Time magazine had once called the Larijani clan the “Kennedys of Iran”. Born in Najaf in 1958, Larijani was the son of a grand ayatollah and a mathematician and computer scientist by training. He was the speaker of Iran’s parliament for 12 years and last August was appointed head of the National Security Council. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death on February 28, Larijani had emerged as the de facto leader, deciding the broad contours of Tehran’s war effort even as military commanders were left to take their own calls. It was Larijani who had struck Iran’s defiant tone, warning the US and Israel of a long and expanding conflict across the Middle East. While a continuation of the US-Israeli tactic of regime decapitation of uncertain returns, Larijani’s death makes an operational difference for Tehran. The regime is finding it increasingly diffi­cult to replace assassinated leaders and Larijani was evidently the head that directed the body.

Never a fan of the West or of talking to the Americans, Larijani was neverthe­less among the pragmatists within the regime. He was unwavering on ideology and his loyalty to the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolution made him a hardliner. But he was also a technocrat who preferred strategy and diplomacy to rhetoric and grandstanding. That was perhaps the most important reason, apart from his experience, that Larijani had led Iran’s efforts to build its partner­ship with China. He was also in charge of Iran’s nuclear programme and the negotiations with the US disrupted by the war. It was no surprise that Larijani was also the man managing the domes­tic crisis that had resulted in largescale protests and the subsequent brutal crackdown in January. With his death, the balance of power might decisively shift towards the Iranian military even as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retain their initiative and authority. Replacing Larijani is not the same as naming Ali Khamenei’s son as the next Supreme Leader. This was never a ceremonial role.