The Oscar Cheat Sheet

And everything else you need to know to make smart cocktail conversation in the run-up to 27 February

There’s only one week to go before the Oscars. If you’re still confused between The King’s Speech and Black Swan and why Inception has eight nominations but not one for Christopher Nolan as director, here’s a handy cheat sheet: essentially all that you need to know for cocktail party conversation.

The best picture nominees are: The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone.

The King’s Speech is the clear front-runner in this category. It has everything the Academy loves—disability, classy acting, an uplifting and inspirational story and an inherent conservatism that won’t ruffle any feathers. In contrast, The Social Network and Black Swan are too ambiguous, edgy and dark. Toy Story 3 is only the third animated film ever to win a spot in the best picture race but it is unlikely to win. Neither is one of my favourite films of 2010—The Kids Are All Right.

The best director candidates: Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan; David Fincher for The Social Network; Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech; Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit and David O Russell for The Fighter.

Why isn’t Christopher Nolan on this list? One theory is that Nolan is so successful commercially that the Academy has a hard time thinking of him as an artist. Until a few weeks ago, David Fincher was tipped to win, but then the Directors’ Guild of America skewed the race by giving their top award to Tom Hooper. The King’s Speech is a wonderful film, but I’m rooting for Fincher. Every frame of The Social Network is a director’s triumph.

Best actor nominees: Colin Firth in The King’s Speech; Javier Bardem in Biutiful; Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network; Jeff Bridges in True Grit and James Franco in 127 Hours. There is little doubt that Colin Firth will pick up his first Oscar for his brilliant performance as the stammering monarch King George VI. Firth was also nominated last year for A Single Man but lost to Jeff Bridges. This year, the Academy is bound to recognise his incredible body of work. The other nominees have also done great  work—Bardem is gut-wrenching in Biutiful, and Eisenberg, tragically lonely in The Social Network —but this is Firth’s year.

Best actress nominees: Natalie Portman in Black Swan; Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone and Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine.

Black Swan divided critics—several dismissed it as overheated melodrama—but there were no two opinions about Natalie Portman who is in almost every frame of the film. She is by turns fragile and ferocious and gloriously unhinged. The closest competition she has in the race is Annette Bening. Bening’s performance as the overbearing, hard-drinking lesbian doctor, whose wife has an affair with their sperm-donor, is so emotionally naked that at times you want to look away. I’m rooting for Bening but I think Portman will win.

Other nuggets to toss around: Christian Bale is a front-runner for best supporting actor for The Fighter. The Razzies, given for the worst achievement in film, have honoured M Night Shyamalan’s The Last Airbender with nine nominations, including one in the new category: ‘Worst Eye-Gouging Mis-use of 3D’. And James Franco will be juggling duties as nominee and co-host of the show. Franco said that one of the reasons he agreed to play host was that it would take his mind off the nominations. He could just show up and not think about winning anything. The Oscars will be held on 27 February. Enjoy!

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