South Asia to See Intense Monsoons in Future

The monsoon hit India in record time this year, hitting Kerala first on May 24 at its earliest in 16 years, and then moving to other states. Mumbai had never recorded a monsoon this early when it arrived two days later on May 26. This might not be an anomaly. A just released report by the World Meteorological Organization says that the monsoon has been unusually intense in recent times and predicts that across South Asia this will continue in the immediate years to follow.

Titled, The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029), it states: ‘Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been anomalously wet and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.’

To get the prediction WMO collected models from 14 institutes. The forecast was not just about the monsoon. It also had not very salutary news about global warming. Last year, 2024, was the warmest year on record since observations were available going back 175 years. The last ten years were also the warmest ever and there seems to be no change in the trend. A WMO press release quoted its Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett saying, ‘Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”

The report itself gave probabilistic estimates for what could ensue. The release said, ‘There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. The report does not give global predictions for individual years.’

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