West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026: Banking on the Modi Mystique

 A BJP TEAM THAT TRAVELLED TO DARJEEL­ING in February to seek inputs from various inter­est groups for the party manifesto was struck by the rather basic nature of demands cutting across almost all voter segments like youth, civil society, ex-service­men, and traders. The civic mess was appalling and stood in poor contrast with the cleaner, modern and organised experience of Gangtok in Sikkim less than three hours by road. The BJP delegation did understand the need to address the Gorkha sentiment and promised a resolution to politi­cal demands without any division of West Bengal, but was struck by despair and anger over lack of amenities and opportunities in the tourist destination popularly known as the ‘Queen of the Hills’.

Looking to regain the ground it had lost in north Bengal in the 2021 Assembly elections, the party has launched a strong push ahead of polling in the region on April 23. Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the way with a 15-km roadshow in Siliguri which drew large, enthusiastic crowds. The decision to hold a roadshow was carefully considered. While a large attendance at a rally can be ascribed to people being bused in, the crowds lining the streets are there of their own volition. The prime minister’s campaign was followed by Home Minister Amit Shah address­ing a rally at the Gorkha Stadium at Lebong. BJP MP Raju Bista called on people from the Darjeeling hills, Kalimpong, Kurseong, Terai, and the Dooars to attend in large numbers as Shah inten­sified his campaign. Speaking at a rally in support of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari who is pitted against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee at Bhowanipore in Kolkata, Shah had declared on April 2 that he would camp in West Bengal for 15 days during electioneering. The pronouncement was certainly a bid to rally party cadre and encourage BJP voters but it also heralded an im­mersive approach to managing details of an intense and a hard-fought poll battle.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has targeted the Election Commission’s (EC) Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the elec­toral rolls on grounds that it selectively delists voters opposed to BJP. While the entire process continues to be under the scrutiny of the Supreme Court, the deletion of 58 lakh voters in the draft roll published by the EC on December 16, 2025 is seen to be significant as it got rid of many electors in the “dead, doubtful, shifted” catego­ries that BJP leaders believe worked to the Trinamool’s benefit in the past. The apex court-mandated adjudication process resulted in a further 27 lakh voters being removed from the rolls with significant deletions in Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur as also North 24 Parganas and Nadia where the Matua commu­nity was affected. The effects of the SIR—whether Muslims have borne the brunt or if BJP has lost out due to Matua deletions—are being debated but the impact is likely to be substantial.

BJP functionaries argue the clean-up of the electoral rolls was much needed as manipulation at polling booths had become an established practice that advantaged the ruling party. BJP leaders admit that Namashudra voters have been affected by the SIR as well but doubt whether this will result in a major change of voting preferences, pointing out that the Centre has worked to quicken the process of applications under the Citizenship Amendment Act . “The functioning of certification authorities has been streamlined and recognition of citizenship certificates for inclusion in voter roll have helped the Matua community,” said a BJP office bearer.

The unhappiness among those who got left out is understand­able but the possibility of inclusion is much higher if BJP were to assume office, the party has told these voters. Party leaders argue the adjudication process was directly supervised by the Supreme Court and carried out by judicial officers and therefore claims that it was biased are unfounded. The procedures and algorithms of the EC that delivered the final electoral rolls cannot be manipu­lated and any discrepancy that disqualifies voters will not be overlooked until corrected.

Anirban Ganguly, director of the Syama Prasad Mookerjee Re­search Foundation, who had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Jadavpur, said the current state of the Trinamool govern­ment resembled the Left Front in its last throes with the difference that the communists had an organisational structure while the current government depends on a network of local strongmen.

 “Locally influential persons have been given the freedom to in­timidate and threaten voters. You can see this in the coarse lan­guage and threats being used to browbeat voters into supporting the ruling party,” Ganguly told Open.

Another BJP functionary who has been camping in Kolkata for close to two months said many ordinary residents were feeling cornered with certain parts of the city becoming “no-go” zones and instances of criminal intimidation—often by gangs compris­ing illegal immigrants from Bangladesh—is on the rise. Yet the race is admittedly a close one and BJP leaders acknowledge that the momentum appeared to shift from week to week. Trinamool has made “protection” of regional identity a key issue by arguing that BJP was led by outsiders and had no consideration of Bengali culture or palates. By focusing on perceived shortfalls in gover­nance and the rise of criminal syndicates, BJP is attempting to flip the identity debate by warning voters that they could become a disenfranchised community in their own land. This lies at the centre of BJP’s anti-illegal immigration-Hindutva pitch.

AWARE THAT THE party faces an experienced cam­paigner with a well-earned reputation for street fighting in Banerjee, BJP has pulled out the stops in taking on Trinamool, leveraging corruption cases against senior leaders and the ubiq­uitous presence of syndicates which, BJP leaders claim, demand a cut for anything from construction of private residences to commercial operations. BJP planners say Trinamool had un­derestimated Modi’s appeal in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and Banerjee spent considerable time and political capital in putting together an opposition alliance which did not work out. Mean­while, BJP won 18 of West Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats, delivering a sobering message to the Triamool chief. Banerjee made the necessary course corrections and warded off the BJP challenge in the 2021 Assembly polls. Now, she is keenly conscious that Trin­amool faces its toughest test in an election where BJP has spared no effort to exploit incumbency against the ruling party. A fourth term, feel some observers, is not beyond Banerjee’s reach as the elections are seen to be a cliff-hanger. But BJP leaders are hopeful that the party could be at a tipping point where public sentiment overwhelms conventional calculations.

Voters are seen to be cautious about revealing their choices though their enthusiasm or lack of it at rallies is an indicator of the popular mood. Instances of political violence could be a reason for their reticence. Sitting MLA and BJP candidate for the Falakata seat Dipak Burman was roughed up, allegedly by Trinamool members, while campaigning a day ahead of Shah’s visit. He was rescued by security personnel and taken to hospital. Memories of post-polling retribution that saw hundreds of BJP supporters having to flee their homes have not faded and voters are not wearing allegiances on their sleeve. BJP has paid attention to the dense cluster of seats in Kolkata and surrounding areas that go to polls on April 29. While the committees are in place for all 80,000 booths, BJP is paying par­ticular attention to about 45,000 booths.

Party functionaries believe there is a shift in the ‘Bhadralok’ mood as the rising incidence of crime and a perception that Islamist outfits enjoy immunity that places them above the law have made voters reconsider support for Banerjee. The rape and murder of a young woman doctor at RG Kar Medical College & Hospital in North Kolkata and the rape of a medical student from Odisha who was abducted from right outside a private medical college in Durga­pur have shaken public confidence. Women voters in particular are worried about personal safety and this has, BJP poll managers feel, eroded Trinamool’s support in a key demographic as the election hurtles towards a heart-stopping finale.