Verdict 2026: Future Shock to I.N.D.I.A. Bloc

ON MAY 3, 2023, in a video message, Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief and then West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee made an ap­peal to all opposition parties to unite to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), saying that no power could overcome people’s might, as she flaunted her triumph in the state. That was the second an­niversary of her third victory in the Assembly elections, having defeated BJP in 2021. A couple of months later, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, or the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, a coalition of 30 parties, was formed.

Exactly three years later, trounced by BJP, which captured West Bengal for the first time, Banerjee revived her call for oppo­sition unity, this time after losing the state. One of the creators of I.N.D.I.A., Banerjee’s defeat in her bastion besides that of another of its torchbearers, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) chief MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu, has left the an­ti-BJP formation on the ropes. Congress itself, barring its victory in Kerala, faced a rout in Assam for a third consecutive time; it won just five of the 28 seats it contested in Tamil Nadu, and emerged victorious in two of the 294 constituen­cies it fought in West Bengal. The Left, another crucial constituent of I.N.D.I.A., defeated by Congress in its last citadel Kerala, does not rule any state for the first time in nearly half-a-century.

Even as the opposition tries to bol­ster its anti-BJP alliance, I.N.D.I.A. faces another dilemma, with political equa­tions changing in Tamil Nadu after the emergence of actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). With Congress, which was in alliance with DMK, shifting its allegiance overnight to TVK—after it emerged as the single-largest party in the 234-member Assembly but short of a majority by 11 seats—it is likely to cause heartburn within I.N.D.I.A. While Vijay’s ideological narrative and icons like EV Ramasamy (Periyar), BR Ambedkar and K Kamaraj qualify him to enter the anti-BJP formation, DMK, which he took on in the run-up to the polls, is a vital component of the bloc. This, however, is not the first time that Congress and DMK have parted ways. To DMK’s charge dubbing Congress a “back stabber”, the party said it was in touch with its former ally which would continue to be part of I.N.D.I.A.

In the run-up to elections in four states, the paradoxes within I.N.D.I.A. were stark—in Kerala, Congress faced off with the Left; in West Bengal, while confronting BJP, TMC also fought the Left and Congress; in Tamil Nadu, Rahul Gandhi evaded campaigning with his ally Stalin. Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Akhilesh Yadav, who had said in January after meeting Banerjee in Kolkata that “only Didi can counter the onslaught of BJP in the country,” skipped the election campaign in West Bengal, confin­ing his support for her to social media.

Once the dust from the elections settled, rattled by the shadow of defeatism, the constituents of I.N.D.I.A. stood by Banerjee after she lost. Rahul Gandhi, who had launched a scathing attack on her before the polls as he campaigned for Congress, came out in sup­port of her allegations of vote manipulation. Yadav, who faces BJP in elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) next year, was among the first op­position leaders to seek a meeting with her. “One by one, they will all come. My target is very clear. I will strengthen the I.N.D.I.A. team,” Banerjee said, describ­ing herself as a free bird, addressing the media a day after BJP swept the elections.

Like Banerjee’s TMC and Stalin’s DMK, the former Uttar Pradesh chief minister’s SP, along with Congress, had outperformed its rivals in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, crushing BJP’s hopes of crossing the majority mark on its own for a third consecutive term. SP won 37 seats against BJP’s 36, jolting the latter in the Hindi heartland. Of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, TMC holds 29 against BJP’s 12, while in Tamil Nadu DMK has 22 seats and Congress nine, with both AIADMK and BJP drawing a blank. Although the regional leaders’ numerical leverage in Lok Sabha remains unchanged, their sway waning in their strongholds is bound to cast a shadow over I.N.D.I.A., inside and outside Parlia­ment. Routed in their backyards, their national ambitions face a tougher test in taking on a formidable BJP.

Before the elections, Mamata Banerjee herself had blown hot and cold when it came to the opposition alliance, sending signals that her priorities lay in West Bengal. After her defeat, however, she welcomed the support from top I.N.D.I.A. leaders, including Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal, Shiv Sena (UBT) president Uddhav Thackeray, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, and Jharkhand Chief Minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) president Hemant Soren.

An opposition leader admits that the anti-BJP bloc has to go beyond optics, starting afresh by first eliminating mistrust, which cannot hold as the foundation of a strong structure. In Banerjee’s defeat, there may be lessons for other constituents of I.N.D.I.A. like Yadav and Congress—minority consolidation is no match for the might of majoritarianism, according to the leader.

While BJP, stung by the Lok Sabha outcome, struck back, win­ning a series of state elections over the past two years, opposition parties floundered in retaining their momentum. It resounded in anti-incumbency catching up with Mamata Banerjee after 15 years and a political greenhorn defeating Stalin. BJP will leave no stone unturned to retain UP where SP and Congress are in al­liance. In AAP-ruled Punjab, which also heads for elections next year, Congress and AAP are at loggerheads. The challenge before the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is to balance state politics and national ambi­tions, bury the hatchet and redraft its playbook before it faces rivals in the next round of elections less than a year away.