I.N.D.I.A. Has a Congress Problem

FORMER RAJASTHAN Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s meeting with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) patriarch Lalu Prasad, two days after the last date for withdrawal of nominations for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly election, to sort out a messed-up ticket distribution and settle the matter of projecting a chief minister is an extraordinary comment on the state of affairs in the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) that hopes to unseat the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In most circumstances, such a development would be cause for disbelief and disdain but such is the theatre of the absurd in Bihar that discussions between Gehlot and the Lalu clan were seen as nothing more than par for the course with assurances that matters would be sorted out. Matters have been sorted out in the sense that Congress has come around to a formal endorsement of Lalu’s younger son Tejashwi as the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s chief ministerial face and the vexed matter of allies putting candidates in the same seats may, to a large extent, be resolved too. But the fact that it took so long for the Gehlot mission to happen points to significant differences between partners despite the unifying dislike of BJP and shared animosity towards the Election Commission (EC) that RJD and Congress claim is biased against the Opposition. CPI(ML) Liberation General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya, whose party did well in the 2020 Assembly polls, pressed for a resolution of the standoff, his anxiety driven by a desire to retain gains and concerns about the negative impact of the bickering. Tejashwi took part in Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in August during which the partners railed against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the Bihar electoral rolls. The political mobilisation saw Rahul raise the “vote chori” charge against EC, calling it an appendage of BJP. So far, Rahul’s allegations of manipulated voting in the Maharashtra Assembly election held in November 2024 have not been substantiated and neither has the Supreme Court found merit in the claim that SIR led to largescale deletion of eligible voters. This has, of course, not prevented Rahul and other I.N.D.I.A. bloc leaders from pursuing their politically charged tirade against EC. Yet, despite the apparent convergence, Congress held back from accepting the seat-sharing formula suggested by RJD and maintained an intriguing ambiguity about leadership. Reports suggest that RJD is not keen to part with more than 50 seats as Congress won just 19 of the 70 Assembly segments it contested in 2020. Congress’ poor strike rate was held as an important reason for the Opposition’s underperformance. The decision of a Delhi court on September 13 to frame charges against Lalu, his wife Rabri Devi and Tejashwi in the “land for jobs” scam when the RJD supremo was railway minister in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has provided leverage to Congress. Though the party does not refer to the case, it is certainly a bargaining chip that can be used to extract a better seat-sharing formula. To what extent will the court decision impact voter choice is more difficult to fathom. It is unlikely to cause the slightest dent in the support of the Yadav community and Muslims—which together constitute a sizeable vote bank—for RJD. Yadavs see Lalu as their leader and Muslim voters regard RJD as the best option to unseat BJP and its ally Janata Dal (United). But the long-drawn suspense does give NDA a potent talking point, raising questions about the coherence of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc and reminding swing voters that the BJP-JD(U) combine, despite the inevitable wages of incumbency, is the best bet for Bihar. Alongside, BJP has launched a strong attack on RJD over the framing of charges against the Lalu family that provides it an opportunity to warn voters that the alternative to NDA is a return to “jungle raj”. In truth, the problem in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc centres round Congress’ electoral viability, or rather the lack of it. In the Jammu & Kashmir polls in 2024, Congress won just six of the 38 seats it contested, leading to similar grumbling within the National Conference as seen in the RJD ranks that the national party failed to pull its weight. Congress proved completely inadequate in challenging BJP in the Jammu region where the Hindu vote stood by the saffron outfit. In the Maharashtra polls, while all I.N.D.I.A. bloc parties fared poorly, Congress won just 16 of the 101 seats it contested. While Congress contested the most seats within the Maha Vikas Aghadi, it inexplicably put up candidates in just a handful of seats in Mumbai itself. Despite attempts to build a political narrative against BJP, the weaknesses in Congress are evident to its partners and are often enough centred round its organisational dysfunctionality. This is plain enough in Bihar as well where Congress state in-charge Krishna Allavaru faces the ire of Congress ticket aspirants, some of whom claimed decisions were taken due to considerations other than merit. As per initial reports, the SIR issue has failed to stir voters and complaints about deletion from the voting lists are not significant. The “vote chori” slogan resonates with those who are committed to the Mahagathbandhan and the campaign is akin to preaching to the converted. If Congress continues to place hurdles in the path of Opposition unity, it might end up severely damaging the I.N.D.I.A. bloc and pulling RJD down with it. Congress’ disproportionate salience in the Bihar electoral debate, besides being a case of punching well above its weight, is a handicap for the Opposition. The constant squabbling and poor administration in states with Congress governments, such as Karnataka, is a poor advertisement of the party’s governance record. It would serve the Opposition cause better if the focus is on RJD as a local alternative capable of representing regional interests. This, however, does not sit easily with the ambitions of the Congress leadership keen to be seen as a lead player and the belief of Rahul confidants that the anti-SIR campaign is a success. It is possible the narrative promoted by the party is an early peep into its strategy for the next Lok Sabha polls due in 2029. With the electoral gains in the 2024 election largely undone by setbacks in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, Congress is struggling to find a casus belli that will power it past BJP. Though NDA’s failure in the Jharkhand election, also held in 2024, is a silver lining, the result is credited more to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. BJP is seen by some commentators to have missed the mark in J&K, but it held its own in Jammu. Expectations that BJP would do well in Kashmir were never a real prospect. All in all, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s tangled wires in Bihar do not augur well for the Opposition and Congress is at risk of being seen as part of the problem.

I.N.D.I.A. Has a Congress Problem

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