Uddhav Thackeray: The Price of Betrayal

THOUGH SHIV SENA is counted as BJP’s oldest ally, the equation was far from even. There was a time, BJP veterans recall, when Sena founder Bal Thackeray treated seat-sharing as a “take it or leave it” affair. Sena was the unquestioned senior partner and when the Hindu­tva allies won an unexpected victory in the 1995 Maharashtra election, Sena’s Manohar Joshi became the chief minister.

Having no taste for office, Thackeray wielded power through a remote. But the saffron allies lost the next three elections before a remarkable turn of events. In the run-up to the October 2014 state elec­tion—after the formation of Modi 1.0 at the Centre—Sena demanded a share of seats BJP baulked at conceding. As a result, Sena, BJP, Nationalist Congress Party and Congress all contested separately.

The irony is that if Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray—Bal Thackeray passed away in November 2012— had settled for the seat-share he rejected, he would still have led the government. The result stunned political pundits. BJP won 122 seats, followed by Sena with 63 and Congress and NCP, 42 and 41 each. NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s offer of “outside support” to BJP on grounds that he did not want political instabil­ity left Sena with no option but to make amends with its ally.

This was, however, not the only time Uddhav would underestimate the Modi effect. For five years, Sena leaders close to Uddhav grumbled about playing second fiddle and vented their ire on voters for forsaking Sena for Modi. The 2019 election returned the alliance to of­fice but this time Uddhav claimed a pre-poll deal to share the chief min­ister’s chair. When BJP rejected the claim, Uddhav ‘switched’ partners and became chief minister with the support of Congress and NCP.

It was not a betrayal BJP was prepared to live with. Even as the government became embroiled in corruption-related controversies, a section of Sena MLAs led by Eknath Shinde defected and struck a deal with BJP. Uddhav was ousted and Shinde was sworn-in as the chief minister. The Sena split was followed by one in NCP, with Ajit Pawar part­ing ways with Sharad Pawar. In a reversal of fortunes, two breakaway factions of Sena and NCP became partners of BJP.

A setback to BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra with the MahaVikas Aghadi (MVA) winning more seats proved short-lived. BJP and its allies returned to office only a few months later with a sweeping win that reduced Uddhav Sena, Congress and NCP(SP) to 20, 16 and 10 seats, respectively. The bad news did not stop. Uddhav Sena lost the Mumbai civic polls and was then reduced to three MPs in Lok Sabha and one MP in Rajya Sabha.

Uddhav Thackeray’s angst over being a junior partner to BJP led him to seek solace with partners that Bal Thackeray never entertained. In the process, he lost his party and the Hindutva brand that is now solely owned by one-time ally BJP.