HomePoliticsRahul’s Muslim Mousetrap: A shrinking Hindu base leaves Congress electorally exposed

Rahul’s Muslim Mousetrap: A shrinking Hindu base leaves Congress electorally exposed

Minhaz Merchant
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Since 1991, the Congress vote share hasn’t crossed 30 per cent as the core Hindu vote has deserted it. Muslim voters have largely replaced departing Hindu voters but their numbers don’t add up

Indian Muslims have a veto over Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Without Muslim votes, Congress seats could halve in the next Lok Sabha election. Out of Congress’ 21.19 per cent national vote share recorded in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, over half likely comprised Muslim votes.

According to the outdated 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 14.2 per cent of the population. Sixteen years later, when the 2027 Census is completed, that could rise to 15 per cent.

Muslims are spread across India. While most vote for Congress nationally, a significant portion votes for Muslim-leaning regional parties. It would therefore be safe to assume that around 12 per cent of India’s Muslim electorate votes nationally for Congress. The balance 3 per cent is spread regionally. Since many—for example, IUML in Kerala, NCP in Maharashtra, SP in Uttar Pradesh, and NC in J&K—are allies of Congress, the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc absorbs this balance Muslim vote.

So how does Congress go from its 12 per cent national slice of Muslims to a 21 per cent national vote share? Two further elements take it there. First, the Christian vote which is 2 per cent of the national electorate. This, too, swings towards Congress. With a lock on 14 per cent votes (12 per cent Muslim and 2 per cent Christian), that still left Congress 7 per cent short of its 2024 Lok Sabha vote share tally of 21.19 per cent. The shortfall was made up by the second element: left-leaning, ‘liberal’ Hindu voters who despise BJP and support Congress nationally.

But the 7 per cent Hindu vote is still a fraction of the 79 per cent Hindu electorate. Where does this 72 per cent ‘Hindu’ vote go? Around 45 per cent gravitates nationally to BJP and its NDA allies. The Hindu vote, unlike the Muslim and Christian vote, is fragmented. It does not vote en masse. The plethora of castes ensures it spreads out evenly. Broadly speaking, NDA captures three-fifths of the Hindu vote—45 per cent of 79 per cent. The rest is distributed by caste, region and ideology.

Is a 45 per cent national vote share enough to win a Lok Sabha election? Since India’s first Lok Sabha election in 1951-52, the highest recorded vote share for a single party is 49.1 per cent for Congress under Rajiv Gandhi in December 1984 after Indira Gandhi’s assassination. Jawaharlal Nehru won three successive landslide victories in 1952, 1957 and 1962 with a vote share of, respectively, 44.99 per cent, 47.78 per cent and 44.72 per cent. Indira Gandhi won in 1971 with 43.70 per cent and in 1980 with 42.69 per cent. PV Narasimha Rao won in 1991 with 36.26 per cent.

Since 1991, Congress’ vote share hasn’t crossed 30 per cent as the core Hindu vote has deserted it. Muslim voters have largely replaced departing Hindu voters but their numbers don’t add up. Congress under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi recognised that their dependence on Muslim votes is growing. When alive, Rajiv Gandhi had sensed the nascent problem. His solution was to play both sides—first, appeasing Muslims by using legislation to overturn the 1985 Supreme Court verdict granting alimony to a Muslim divorcee, Shah Bano, against the diktat of powerful Muslim clerics, and then, appeasing Hindus by allowing shilanyas for the Ram Mandir in 1989. He ended up alienating both and lost the 1989 Lok Sabha election. Congress plunged from 414 seats to 197.

It was the steepest fall (52 per cent) between any two Lok Sabha elections till Congress, now under Rajiv’s son Rahul Gandhi, took Congress from 206 seats in 2009 to 44 seats in 2014, a fall of over 80 per cent. But Gandhis made the fateful decision to double down on their Muslim-first policy. The policy failed in 2019 with Congress limping from 44 to 52 seats.

The epiphany came in 2023 before the crucial 2024 election when Congress joined the multi-party I.N.D.I.A. bloc. With vote cannibalisation reduced, Congress won 99 seats in 2024. Its national vote share, however barely rose from 19.49 per cent in 2019 to 21.19 per cent in 2024. If the 12 per cent Muslim vote slice had not voted en masse for Congress in 2024, its 99 Lok Sabha seats could have halved. That is the reality for Congress going forward: the mousetrap has shut.