Bihar Assembly Election: At Full Throttle

 CHHABILAPUR IS A BUSY PITSTOP ON THE PATNA-RANCHI road but a small group of men sitting on wooden benches at a local store are not very occupied. They do not seem in a hurry to get anywhere and are willing to discuss the unfolding election. The village is part of Rajgir block and falls in the Nalanda Assembly constituency, for long a Janata Dal (United) stronghold, with Shrawan Kumar, a confidant of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, winning successive elections since 1995. The chief minister’s home district boasts of a significant presence of his Kurmi caste and Kumar is widely expected to extend his enviable unbroken record of 30 years as MLA.

The men at the shop acknowledge Shrawan Kumar’s prospects but pitch for “badlav (change)”, indicating their support for the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) candidate Kaushalendra Kumar, who like the JD(U) MLA, is also a Kurmi. The reasons range from com­plaints about “jativad (casteism)” to local-level corruption to lack of compensation for crops damaged by heavy rains. The charge of casteism levelled against the ruling National Demo­cratic Alliance (NDA) dispensation is rooted in the perception that the state government is playing favourites by privileging one set of voters over another. The allegation, despite probing, is not spelt out until it is almost time to move on.

Dressed in a crisp white kurta-pyjama with a gamcha (a thin cotton towel) around his neck, Umesh Prasad is dark, of middle build with sharply etched expressive features. “One samaj  [caste] is being singled out. Did you not see what happened in Mokama?” he asks. He is referring to a local strongman Dularchand Yadav, whose murder while campaigning for the Jan Suraaj Party candidate sent shock waves through Nalanda. A trim and fit 60-year-old Umesh lashes out at NDA, asking, “How was such a crime committed so brazenly?” He points to the suspected involvement of JD(U) candidate from Mokama Anant Singh who has a lengthy criminal record. “Why is media highlighting alle­gations of violence against Dularchand and not showing how he was gunned down? Is it not your job to present the right picture?” Umesh Prasad’s anger spills over. His outburst silences the gather­ing even as Upendra Prasad, a quieter, older man nods in agreement.

Umesh Prasad isn’t finished though. “You ask questions about whether RJD’s promise about a job for every household is fea­sible, but don’t ask other questions…The prime minister comes here and speaks of kattas [illegal hand guns] and bombs, is this the level of the prime minister?” he asks. Modi’s reference to RJD’s al­legedly armtwisting Congress into declaring Tesjashwi Yadav as the Grand Alliance chief minister nominee and Home Minister Amit Shah’s forceful reminders about ‘jungle raj’ during Rash­triya Janata Dal (RJD) rule have hit a raw nerve.

Never tiring of underlining their Yadav identity, Umesh and Upendra lash out at the alleged calumnies heaped on RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad’s clan. “Nitish is just a mukhauta [mask] and he is asantulit [unbalanced],” they opine, echoing Tejashwi’s charge that the chief minister is a BJP chess piece. The ‘jungle raj’ narrative is sought to be countered by the argument that the time for such regimes is over. “I am educated and literate, so are many other communities; no one can bully anyone else. It cannot be the same again. Tejashwi should be given a chance,” Umesh rounds off. A day after the conversation, Anant Singh was arrested in relation to Dularchand’s murder. The action is unlikely to have assuaged the Yadavs at Chhabilapur much.

WITH NITISH KUMAR close to completing 20 years as chief minister after he first unseated Lalu in 2005, the question whether ‘jungle raj’ still strikes a chord with voters is relevant. At Goraul village on the Hajipur-Muzaffarpur road, Sanjay Singh displays a wry sense of humour while provid­ing an answer. “Do people remember jungle raj? Well, the Bhu­mihar community certainly does. It is a buddhijeevi [intellectual] community and they certainly haven’t forgotten what jungle raj was like,” he says. Though many of Bihar’s younger voters have seen no government other than the one led by Nitish Kumar, the phrase is a trigger word. Working to NDA’s advantage is the perception that the two brief periods when RJD was back in office in the company of Nitish were lawless—almost similar to Lalu’s so-called jungle raj—and the Opposition has not changed its ways.

It is galling for the RJD first family to see Nitish Kumar referred to as “sushasan babu (mister governance)” as a contrasting and pre­ferred alternative. The court cases relating to alleged land transfers for jobs when Lalu was railway minister have provided substance to allegations of graft and nepotism and deepened the scepticism over RJD’s pledge to provide a job for every family.

Like a clutch of other Assembly seats bedevilled by the Grand Alliance’s inability to settle contending claims, Vaishali has both a Congress and RJD nominee. DN Sahni, who runs a sweets shop at Goraul, says he is a PhD in Hindi and was once a college lecturer. The work done by the Nitish-led government is strikingly visible (kaam jhalakta hai), he says. A wider well-made road has reduced travel time to nearby destinations as well as Patna, electricity is regular, there are no complaints about health and education facilities and there is a new IT centre. But when it comes to the voting choice of Sahnis, the community the former lecturer belongs to, the word is awaited at a rally scheduled to be addressed by Tejashwi Yadav and Vikassheel Insaan Party leader Mukesh Sahani. “They will indicate which one—the Congress or the RJD nominee is to be supported— and we will vote accordingly,” he says. The knot of people at the shop, who have been listening to Sahni spout Hindi poetry, smil­ingly agree. In the 2020 election, Mukesh Sahani was with NDA and had helped shore up some of the losses caused by Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan contesting on his own. This time round, Paswan is in the NDA tent, but Sahani’s departure is likely to see the loyalties of his caste, a shade under 3 per cent of Bi­har’s population, shift to the Grand Alliance. Sometimes referred to as the “son of Mallah”, the VIP leader’s shifting alliances is typical of smaller parties in a state where caste is an insistent political reality.

More often than not, caste defines a voter’s perception of individ­ual well-being and perception about the incumbent government. As vehement criticism of NDA by the Yadavs at Chhabilapur and the inclination of Sahnis’ vote for the Mahagathbandhan demon­strate, caste lines define political choices. Nagini Khatoon’s family with 17 registered voters at Unsar village in Bochahan Assembly constituency is all set to vote for Tejashwi Yadav as chief minister. Most of Khatoon’s sons work in other states, with three of them in Ahmedabad in Gujarat. One of them, Mohammad Ijaz, has become an employer, having set up a small tailoring unit that caters to busi­nesses based in Gujarat. Along with two younger brothers, Ijaz is back to attend a wedding and cast vote. Neither Khatoon nor her sons are aware of the constituency their village is a part of but have no doubt about what they need to do on voting day. “The sons and their families come home for marriages and voting. This time, there was a family function and I asked them to stay till the election is over,” says Khatoon, adding the large number of votes in the household attracts a steady stream of local politicians. “Whether for a ward election or any other election, I make it clear that we will not be influenced by offers of mon­ey,” says Khatoon. Ijaz and his brother Mohammad Sarfraz say they will leave on the evening voting is over and are representative of many of the village’s 250-odd Muslim households. Like the Yadav commu­nity, they are strongly aligned with the RJD-Congress-led Grand Alliance.

BUT JUST AS the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) align­ment provides RJD and its allies a strong opening advantage, the Grand Alliance’s prospects hang in balance as the social coalition also imposes a limitation. Caste considerations similar to those working in favour of the Grand Alliance are at work in case of NDA too. The resonance of the ‘jungle raj’ slogan with voters outside the Grand Alli­ance core is evidence of a counter-caste coalition. The ruling alliance needs to contend with the inevitable wages of incumbency but the blow has been softened by perceived improvements in all walks of life under the JD(U)-BJP government. Despite his long stint in office, Nitish Kumar continues to be well regarded by NDA voters and there are no signs of any significant depletion in their ranks. At Machhariawan in Fatuha block, a village just off the Patna-Ranchi road, Sugita Devi and Gudiya Devi, who are sitting with a group of people near the local bank, have both received the `10,000 an­nounced by Nitish Kumar for members of JEEViKA societies sup­ported by the Bihar government to help women form self-help groups as per provisions of the rural livelihoods promotion scheme.

“The government is working for us, there is no need to change it,” says Sugita Devi. Both she and Gudiya Devi have school-going children and report that scholarships and money for uniforms is paid out on time and availability of textbooks is not a problem.

 They are aware of RJD’s promise of a job for every household, but are sceptical whether it is implementable. They also believe that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s support has been a key factor in ensuring development projects and flow of funds to the state. The sentiment is echoed by Manish Kumar and Anjit Kumar, two youth who identify as Mahto—a caste label used for OBC (Other Backward Classes) such as Kushwaha in Bihar—and who question the job pledge asking what could be the criteria for selection. “Can jobs be given to people who cannot sign their names or have not completed their education? If the jobs are going to be just manual labour, what does that amount to?” asks Manish. Another young man, Rohit Kumar, a psychology graduate who works in Kolkata as a risk analyst, feels there are opportunities for people who study diligently. A careful study of job advertisements and a relevant pro­file on apps like LinkedIn helped Rohit get a job. He is currently back on a short holiday and plans to vote for NDA, like the others.

If the Grand Alliance had not expended much of its energy over the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which has failed to move voters, the Opposition might have found it profit­able to hone in on the perception of corruption at the local level. All sections of voters, including those supporting NDA, complain that petty graft has soared and this is a change for the worse. From JEEVi­KA members to elected local body officials, all are unanimous that the most routine of paper work requires money under the table. The resentment over the pervasive corruption at the lower levels has not boiled over into anger and a desire to replace the govern­ment perhaps because for many NDA voters the Grand Alliance is not an option and are pleased with welfare benefits. They fear the return of Yadav domination in political and social life, which has been heavy-handed in the past. “At least at present, I don’t have to deal with someone claiming to represent a phalanwa Rai [an influ­ential Yadav] and who will armtwist me,” says Kailash Kushwaha, sitting at a small metal work and welding shop at Amnour in Saran district. The shop owner, who claims that “dal roti chal rahi hai (I am making ends meet)” to a question about his well-being, and some half-a-dozen others are mostly extremely backward classes (EBCs) from caste groups, such as Nonia and Dhanuk. They are clear about voting for NDA and despite their average condition, are not seeking change. This is a crucial constituency Nitish Kumar has assiduously cultivated and the state’s 2023 caste survey places these numerous castes at 36 per cent of Bihar’s population, though they are not a homogenous lot.

At a nondescript village set in a lush and green countryside in Bakhtiyarpur, rains due to a cyclonic circulation have flooded fields. Half-submerged men can be seen along the narrow but well-tarred road clearing weeds and occasionally catching small fish they fling to waiting children. The rains have flattened paddy in many fields but a group of people, all from the Paswan com­munity, are in good spirits. The village, they say, has a mixed population of Paswans, Yadavs and Mahtos. Some have received money under the PM Awas scheme to build houses but one of them, Pappu Paswan, complains that the final instalment has not been transferred. They are happy with Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan’s decision to remain in the NDA fold and this has solidified their inclination to support the incumbent government. Primarily agriculturists, the Paswans say that payments for sale of crops are free of hassles and money is deposited seamlessly in bank accounts. Like other voters who favour Nitish Kumar, they note the improvements in electricity supply and connectivity—the road that snakes past their village is a testimony to progress—and have good things to say about the law and order in their area. Their loyalty might have been tested if Chirag Paswan had not been in NDA just like the Sahnis at Goraul who are voting for the Grand Alliance. As is often the case, caste is a powerful arbiter and BJP’s success lies in having a successful alliance with JD(U) and keeping a large number of non-Yadav OBCs within the saffron tent by deploying a shrewd mix of policies framed by its development-plus-Hindutva plank.

Like the Yadavs at Chhabilapur, several men from the com­munity waiting for transport at Pirota village in Gaighat Assem­bly constituency are championing “badlav ” as they point to the inundation caused by excessive rainfall and the lack of any official action in draining the swamps. They agree to having received benefits under official welfare schemes, like free rations and old-age pension, but claim that bigger landlords have skimmed the cream. “The government’s record is poor and there should be change,” says Ashok Singh Yadav. Standing with the clutch of Yadavs, Sushil Sahni chimes in with an offer of a tour of the vil­lage which does reveal large tracts under water. Getting across to dwellings through the flooded areas is a challenge and Sahni avers the thinfoot paths have turned to slush. Just as has been noted earlier, while flooded fields are a source of considerable anguish at Pirota, they are not a tipping point at other places. The affin­ity of Pirota’s residents with RJD and its leader and fellow Yadav, Lalu Prasad, is the difference. The village is well spread out and most houses have several buffaloes and goats tethered outside, indicating a reasonable level of rural prosperity. The dairy ani­mals are a healthy supplement to farm incomes in a community known for being proficient cowherds.

THE 2023 CASTE survey revealed a Yadav population of 14.2 per cent and Muslims comprised 17.7 per cent, giv­ing RJD and its allies a significant headstart with a solid block of almost 32 per cent of potential voters. BJP relies on up­per castes and a section of OBCs while Nitish Kumar commands the following of his caste Kurmis, who are barely 3 per cent of the population, they are part of a larger cohort of OBCs and EBCs who have drifted away from RJD. The protestations that times have changed and the jungle raj referred to by NDA leaders is no longer feasible, do not as yet cut ice with these populous caste groups. Conversations reflect an awareness that benefits have flowed individually and to the state as a whole with the presence of NDA governments at the state and the Centre and there is a reluctance to experiment with alternatives that do not seem as convincing. The public sparring over seat-sharing and presence of more than one Grand Alliance nominee on several seats has conveyed a message of disunity as compared with the smooth distribution of seats among NDA partners. An element of ambigu­ity over whether Nitish Kumar will be the chief minister again has been answered by BJP leaders endorsing his leadership. With both BJP and JD(U) contesting 101 seats each, the questions about what would a higher tally for the saffron party mean is relevant but is not a negative in electoral terms. As things stand, it would not be easy to deny Nitish’s claim to be chief minister and any “handover”, whenever it happens, will need his concurrence.

A former mukhia (head of a village panchayat), Rakesh Mahto, sits outside his house at Ekangasarai in the Islampur Assembly constituency and ticks off “positives” working for NDA. “The `10,000 transfer to JEEViKA members, the increase in old-age pension from `400 to `1,100 and the regular supply of electricity are very well appreciated,” he says. The “women constituency” sought to be addressed by incentives such as the JEEViKA pay­ments seem to be responding to the overtures even though gender is not a sweeping classification. Caste and community affinities cannot be brushed aside and the M-Y vote is strongly rooting for the Grand Alliance. Yet, NDA’s effort to raise a larger tent by blend­ing caste, welfare and development themes might stand it in good stead in a hard-fought election.