A Congress of Diminishing Returns

The Winter Session of Parliament is at hand and it is almost certain the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is set to renew its protest against the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in several states. Trinamool Congress, DMK, Samajwadi Party and Congress are likely to take the lead and though all of them want to keep the focus on SIR, they are not really on the same page. Trinamool has made it clear it will continue with its policy not to ally with Congress and contest next year’s West Bengal Assembly election on its own. Samajwadi leaders are sceptical of Congress’ utility too, though they are mindful of the virtue signalling of ‘secular’ unity. DMK is on good terms with Congress but Tamil Nadu is an MK Stalin show. Despite levelling fresh accusations of “vote chori (vote theft)” after its rout in the Bihar elections, the party’s excuses are growing thin and other I.N.D.I.A. constituents are concerned about Congress being a liability rather than an asset.

In Maharashtra, Congress is in a dilemma over Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and Raj Thackeray’s MNS, joining hands for the Mumbai civic polls. Uddhav Thackeray has said Congress fighting on its own will strengthen BJP, but he is not abandoning MNS. NCP (Sharad Pawar) has already broken with the Opposition over participation in a parliamentary committee that will examine a Bill that seeks to mandate resignation of the prime minister, chief ministers and Central and state ministers if charged with serious offences.

Fourth Winter For Ukraine War

Despite US President Donald Trump lashing out at Ukraine over stagnated talks to end its conflict with Russia, the war is dragging on into a fourth cold and dreary winter. Russian forces are straining to capture the city of Pokrovsk but are making slow progress. According to the Hudson Institute’s situation report, battle lines remain relatively stable despite an average of 150 tactical engagements per day. Russian forces launched intense positional attacks on several sectors but did not yield breakthroughs. Bad weather, fewer daylight hours and mud-affected troop movement as Russia attempts to lock in territorial advantages before deepening winter, force a standstill.

Rajnath’s Straight Talk

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s remarks at an event attended by the Sindhi community that the region, which became part of Pakistan after Partition, could become part of India again is not a casual utterance. It needs to be seen in conjunction with his previous warning that Pakistan’s military exercises in the Sir Creek area should not translate into offensive action against India. The route to Karachi, he had told troops at a military garrison in Gujarat, runs through Sir Creek. While the Pakistan army has scoffed at the statements, it may consider the utility of caution being the better part of valour.

Owaisi’s Googly

Undeterred by criticism that AIMIM is a ‘B’ team of BJP and hurt the ‘secular’ cause in Bihar where it won five seats in constituencies with a high number of Muslim voters, party leader Asaduddin Owaisi declared he will support the NDA government in the state. Now, with 202 seats in a house of 243, NDA does not need any assistance. But Owaisi has played his cards shrewdly as he says the decision reflects his desire to ensure development of Seemanchal, often seen as a crucible of Hindu-Muslim politics. BJP has no ideological common ground with Owaisi but it is hard to spurn an offer made for the cause of development. Owaisi was a participant in the Modi government’s parliamentary outreach after the Pahalgam attacks and, more recently, condemned the use of educational institutions by terrorists.

Khalistan in Canada

Khalistan supporters gathered in Ottawa recently to vote on a ‘referendum’ and pictures of men lining up prompted some Canadians to ask if a “yes” vote would mean repatriation of the agitators. Unfortunately, that ship sailed long ago and Canadians are saddled with Khalistanis, many of whom are overgrown adolescents. As some Indian handles on X put it, Canadians have successive governments to thank for the lawlessness in the name of a separatist movement well past its expiration date.

Trump Not Missed At G20

The G20 summit in South Africa ended without anyone missing Donald Trump. Rather, discussions seemed to have been more purposeful in his absence. Of course, the US is a key factor in G20 deliberations, just as in the case of G7. The stage was taken over by other leaders and the subtext of the agendas—this will hardly please Trump—was about forging new partnerships and strengthening old ones to hedge against uncertainties caused by the US weaponisation of tariffs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had no hesitation in holding discussions with Brazil’s Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, two leaders to have attracted Trump’s ire, as a part of the India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) grouping.

A Failed Act

Self-styled political activist Yogendra Yadav claims the Election Commission’s SIR of electoral rolls is actually meant for West Bengal, and that Bihar was a “dry run”. There is clearly no end to Yadav’s inventiveness. With his allegations of voter deletions falling flat in Bihar and electors voting in record numbers, Yadav has quickly shifted goalposts and is looking to tailor his facts for the next election, even when his cache of fanciful allegations have failed to pass the smell test.