Modi’s praise for Trump’s Gaza plan is a window to repair ties

Twice within the space of a week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has strongly backed US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Trump’s 20-point plan holds the promise of a “just and durable peace,” Modi said on Saturday, praising the President for decisive progress in peace efforts. A few days earlier, Modi welcomed the proposal announced after Trump met Isreal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a “viable path to long term and sustainable peace, security and development.”

Is Modi’s ringing endorsement of Trump’s leadership a bid to improve India-US ties that have been in the doldrums for several weeks? The question has absorbed the attention of commentators at a time when a resolution of differences over a bilateral trade deal being negotiated since March continues to elude resolution. Just a day after Modi’s reaction on X set off a buzz, external affairs minister S Jaishankar offered a sober assessment of India-US relations, stating that a “landing ground” has not been found and that India’s red lines must be respected.

Jaishankar’s remarks at a conclave in New Delhi provide important context to Modi’s praise of Trump’s leadership. Relations between the two leaders nosedived after Modi pointedly denied Trump’s claim to have mediated in the May 7-10 India-Pakistan conflict. The disparaging remarks of US President and some of his cabinet ministers about India’s economy made matters worse and Modi vowed to pay any price for his decision to stand up to trade bullying. Thereafter Trump seemingly held out an olive branch telling an Indian reporter that there is no cause for concern about US-India bilateral relations and spoke of Modi in warm tones.

Modi welcomed Trump’s comments but carefully avoided referring to the President as a “friend” as he has on earlier occasions. Thereafter a certain warmth returned to Modi’s references but a sense of wariness was apparent. It will be a mistake to read Modi’s fulsome support for Trump’s Gaza plan as a preparedness to dilute India’s positions in the trade negotiations. India is indeed keen to end the trade impasse and get rid of the 25% “penalty” tariff imposed by the US on the trumped up charge of aiding the Russian war effort. But that does not mean Modi will roll back his commitments to Indian farmers.

The agriculture and dairy sector will remain out of bounds of any trade deal with the US. Jaishankar’s remarks on Sunday provide an important context for Modi’s reactions to developments in Gaza, particularly after Hamas accepted the basic principle of a hostage-for-prisoner swap. The Prime Minister is signalling he has no hesitation in publicly lauding Trump’s leadership in the international arena and is keen to restore the momentum in bilateral ties. India is ready to close the gap on trade if US agrees to take a couple of steps forward.

At stake are potential benefits to both sides as India is ready to make up for excluding the agriculture and dairy sectors and saying no to GM foods by significantly increasing India’s purchases of American energy and defence supplies. Though some sectors will be out of bounds, the US will get unprecedented access to a large Indian market and commercial exchanges – which have remained shallow despite best efforts – could witness an unprecedented boom. For this to happen, the US needs to accept the principle of reciprocity and acknowledge the reality that India’s state of development cannot be considered at par with the US.

Indian negotiators have understood that a certain basic tariff in the range of 15-20% on Indian exports to the US is inevitable. Even a US ally of long standing like the United Kingdom has not escaped a 10% tariff. But the 25% Russian oil “tariff” has to go followed by negotiations on the 25% rate previously announced by Trump.

The US President seriously misread Modi when he felt the Indian leader would rubber stamp his claims to have mediated an end to the May conflict. Trump is not hugely bothered with the nuances and intricacies of international affairs but his team perhaps failed to impress on him the significance of India’s consistent rejection of any third party mediation with regard to Pakistan and why it has remained an unchanged stance of successive governments, even coalitions far weaker that the current National Democratic Alliance.

Despite signs of a thaw in relations, time is running out on India-US relations. Unless there is a breakthrough, the possibilities of misunderstandings will grow as will resentments. Modi has for long understood the importance of a partnership with the US, something that goes back to his private visits to America much before he became Gujarat chief minister. India is willing to shake hands over a deal that reboots ties. It’s for Trump to figure out whether snake oil salesmen from Pakistan or India’s robust economy and democratic credentials offer better prospects for America.