India Likely to See Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026: IMD Forecast Explained

India could see a weaker-than-usual monsoon this year, according to the India Meteorological Department, raising concerns for agriculture, water supply and economic stability.

In its first-stage forecast for 2026, the IMD said rainfall during the crucial June–September southwest monsoon season is likely to fall short of normal levels.

“The quantity of monsoon rainfall this year is expected to reach 92 per cent of the long-period average this year,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said while addressing a press conference.

He added that “the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal (95-90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).”

What does ‘below normal’ rainfall actually mean?

The IMD defines normal monsoon rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long-period average, which is based on 87 cm of rainfall recorded between 1971 and 2020.

With the forecast pegged at 92 per cent of this average, the monsoon falls into the “below normal” category.

“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of +- 5%,” Ravichandran explained.

What climate factors are influencing this year’s monsoon?

Several global climate signals are shaping this year’s outlook, and most of them are not particularly supportive of strong rainfall.

“At present, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions over equatorial Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD) conditions presently over the Indian Ocean we are expecting the second half of the monsoon period to develop IOD positive,” Ravichandran said.

He further noted that “these two factors in gerneral are both a little bit negative,” suggesting a dampening effect on rainfall.

Adding to the uncertainty, climate models point toward a possible shift later in the season.

“The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Nino conditions during the South West Monsoon season,” the IMD said.

Are there any positive signals for rainfall?

Despite the largely negative indicators, one factor could slightly support rainfall levels.

“The good northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months is slightly favourable so inverse relation between snow and monsoon we will be getting better... Al these put together we will be getting 92 per cent,” Ravichandran said.

This suggests that while the overall outlook remains subdued, certain global conditions may help prevent a sharper deficit.

When will the forecast be updated?

This is only the first-stage forecast, and more clarity will emerge in the coming weeks.

Ravichandran said this is the first forecast for the 2026 monsoon, with an updated forecast for the monsoon season to be given in the last week of May this year.

The IMD follows a two-stage forecasting system, issuing its initial outlook in April and refining it by the end of May using both statistical and dynamical models.

How does IMD make its monsoon predictions?

Over the years, the IMD has upgraded its forecasting approach to improve accuracy.

It now relies on a mix of statistical methods and advanced climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, which uses multiple global climate models to generate projections.

This system also provides region-wise forecasts and monthly updates through the season, helping policymakers and farmers prepare for changing rainfall patterns.

(With inputs from ANI)