Change Weathering

The world, it is said, is connected in every which way. A flutter of a butterfly in the Amazon setting off a cyclone might be an exaggeration but it makes the point. A new study has found a correlation between El Niño and a rise in dengue cases in Kerala. Warming of the Pacific Ocean at the other end of the world led to conditions in Kerala that made it more inviting for mosquitoes to breed and flourish, biting more humans and transmitting more of the virus. The researchers could make a model that predicts how dengue cases could increase from climate indicators. It forecasted that dengue cases in Kerala will continue to rise across all emission scenarios; up to 20 percent by 2040, and will keep going up.

There are two ways to look at such a study and decide what to do about it. One is to prepare. El Niño is predictable now. We know months earlier it is going to happen and even the intensity of it. Given that knowledge, it should be easy to amp up measures against breeding of mosquitoes and increase prevention awareness. A dengue vaccine has just been approved in India. The government could start giving it through drives. This is termed adaptation.

The alternative is to fix the root cause; to reverse the forces that create climate change. Human beings are responsible in large part because of emissions from industries. For decades governments and international institutions have tried to bring them down without achieving much. They are a byproduct of development. Rich nations are rich because of what they emitted in the past. To turn the switch off globally means poor nations can't catch up. Naturally, countries like India and China pay lip service but are clear about where priorities lie, removal of crushing poverty, not cleaning the air.

Adaptation is the pragmatic option. Technology helps. Prediction of weather with such accuracy is possible because of supercomputers. It is only getting better. To change the earth itself is a great ambition, but the earth is too big for it.