Under Siege

DASAPUR IS LESS THAN an hour from Bhubaneswar. This nondescript village sits at the edge of the Cuttack-Athagarh road soon after the Mahanadi bridge that spans the mighty river. Sitting patiently by the roadside is a small knot of vegetable sellers. They don’t seem too bothered that the small piles of vegetables haven’t depleted by much. They are a talkative bunch, open to a discussion on the two-tier election in Odisha and soon enough, unload their peeves. The problem with the state government’s schemes, they say, is that the benefits are cornered by a creamy layer that owes allegiance to the ruling party. Despite the proximity to the river, there is a drinking water problem and agriculture is a challenge for most residents of this village, with a large number of tribal households who till modest holdings. They are particularly unhappy about the erratic supply of potable water and, aided by the familiarity of a couple of them with Hindi, explain there is no water tank to store the precious resource. They have made up their minds. They will vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

The pocket of turbulence, just at the door­step of Bhubaneswar, is not an isolated one. The elections in Odisha, particularly for the state Assembly with Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik seeking a record sixth term, have been a much closer contest than might have been anticipated. The discontent with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is evident in constituencies that fall in the districts of Cuttack, Angul, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Kendra­pada and Puri that polled in the sixth and seventh phases of the Lok Sabha election. Though some of these seats lie in western Odisha, where BJP is seen to enjoy support, the sharpness of the anti-incumbency sentiment is surprising as it reflects gover­nance gaps that are leaving voters increasingly impatient. Patnaik strides the Odisha landscape like a colossus, winning elections by big margins, relegating Congress to an also-ran and checking the advance of BJP. Rivals have despaired at the leader’s ability to pull in votes while maintaining a public profile that hides more than it reveals. But as the conversation with Pramod Behera, Bolaram Behera, Hira Rana and their fellow vegetable sellers disclosed, the sentiment that 24 years in office should have resulted in a better deal is finding traction.

Some way farther from Dasapur, at Athagarh, which is part of the Cuttack Lok Sabha seat and an Assembly constituency, a diverse bunch of voters at a tea stall at a bend in the road that leads to Sambalpur are as vocal about their choices. The BJP candidate is veteran parliamentarian Bhartruhari Mahtab who has switched to the party after a long career in BJD and while this is a matter of debate, the unhappiness with the Patnaik government is not far from the surface. Health services are a matter of particular con­cern, with a lack of doctors a serious handicap. Patients are taken elsewhere for treatment and private care is more expensive. Trav­elling to Cuttack for major ailments is taxing but even immediate attention for more common health issues is lacking. Ajay Singh and Atulya Behera, who own mid-sized farmsteads, point out a similar deficit with schools where they say teachers struggle to cater to a large number of students. The company at Athagarh shares the view that BJD has not done enough for those at the lower end of the socio-economic scale, possibly a comment on the relative prosperity of local party functionaries, often a spinoff of a party being in office for a long period of time. They do have a grouse over the slow pace of work in widening of the NH-55 that connects Bhubaneswar to Sambalpur. The highway is in a state of disrepair resulting in the diversion of heavy traffic through the smaller state road passing through Athagarh, resulting in congestion and noise. The work has dragged on for years and patience is running thin. The grievance is a rare adverse comment on the Centre’s highway ex­pansion that generally receives good reviews.

Chandan Naik is a banking correspondent and is often found outside the ATM of the bank he works for in the busy market of Rasol, a small but densely populated settlement. A customer offers his Aadhaar card, which Naik inserts into a card swipe machine while the man presses a thumb on a sensor. Once the transaction is verified, Naik gives the man `6,000. Why use a banking correspondent when an ATM is available? It’s just more convenient, says the customer, adding Naik is more reliable and the ATM sometimes does not function. Naik says on a busy day, he does transactions of between `1-2 lakh and travels in nearby areas. Many of his customers live in rural parts and find him a useful medium to access pensions, government payouts like PM Kisan, and other state benefits. The crowd at the ATM is also largely from surrounding villages and soon the talk turns to the lack of opportunities in the region, where many go to other states in search of employment. Some feel BJD would remain their option for the state government, expressing support for Patnaik. Asked about reports that former civil servant VK Pandian, a Tamilian, is the anointed successor, the response is negative. Those voting BJD expect Patnaik to be the chief minister and for others seeking change, Pandian is one more reason to support BJP. Those tilting towards BJP are fairly categoric, asserting there is a need for “total change” in the system, with BJP and Modi seen as the preferred options both in the state and at the Centre.

Pintu Saha, who has been listening to the discussion at the bank, offers the view that the wind is blowing in BJP’s direction. He has a particular reason to think so. The area around Rasol has a strong representation of Sahas, a Scheduled Caste, and the candidate from the community has been replaced, resulting in unhappiness with BJD, he claims. An articulate man, fluent in Hindi and English, Pintu teaches at a private school and is looking to further improve his prospects. His views are heard carefully and Naik suggests the teacher is being a little “political” and voters are more divided. The delivery of welfare schemes is, however, fairly evident and most people said eligible persons receive free rations as well as a rice scheme—which BJP says is a case of re­branding by the state—provided by the BJD government. But eking out livelihoods remains a demanding task and Prabhat, a student finishing college, points out the limitations. His family runs a grocery store and he does not see much possibility of private employment. While agriculture lacks irrigation and is largely dependent on the monsoon, there is no cold storage to encour­age farmers to consider cultivating perishables that command a seasonal price. It is evident that while Patnaik is not accused of personal enrichment and is free from serious taint, he is being subjected to much closer questioning than has been the case. Will the discontent reach a tipping point? The question is hard to an­swer as BJD has its backers and has financially strong leaders and legislators. Also, BJP’s message could require greater amplification among tribal voters who make up a large part of the electorate.

The frequent references to Modi indicate the prime minister is a draw in Odisha and the discourse is at least in part linked to consumption of social media and greater access to information. The state has a large migrant population that travels to cities like Hyderabad, Chennai, Gurugram, Surat and Ahmedabad for work and comparisons are unavoidable. The stories that migrants carry back lead to heightened expectations and questions arise about why opportunities are so scarce closer home. Without being re­ferred to in specific terms, the voters are evaluating various as­pects of the “Modi model” and linking it to the possible change in their circumstances. BJP has consistently attacked BJD for not implementing the Centre’s Ayushman Bharat scheme and for dragging its feet over the Har Ghar Jal Yojana that aims to deliver a water supply connection to every household. The contrast with a state like Uttar Pradesh, where the taps have become ubiquitous in villages, is hard to miss. While the BJD government is wary about the schemes being associated with BJP and therefore deliv­ering political dividends to the rival, not implementing the initia­tives does not help. It has only added to the popular discontent and while voters may not always recognise the schemes devised by the Centre, BJD does not seem to be the better for it. The mood in­dicates BJP may find strong support in the Lok Sabha election and the contest at the Assembly level is too close to call in several seats.

At Raigorha, a group of men and women wait for local trans­port along a road that cuts through the interiors of Angul district. They identify themselves as Naiks, a caste group that is often a Dalit community. Simply attired, they work as labour and some have small lots of farming land. They, too, complain of a lack of accessible medical care, with the nearest outpost being Angul town. Hiring vehicles to take patients to hospital is vexing and as far as electoral preferences go, the mood in their community is divided. The consistency with which references to lacunae in healthcare pop up in interviews with voters should worry BJD and the party will hope the displeasure has not crossed a criti­cal threshold. A passerby stops to listen and is agitated by the responses of the Naiks, which do not seem to suit his views. He insists the sarpanch will be able to provide better answers. The Dalits, however, are not put off their stride and Jamini and Mamata Naik continue to list the needs they feel should be ad­dressed if their community is to lead a better life. Dalits and Adiva­sis are just as upfront in expressing their views as other communi­ties, and while many have been supportive of Congress in the past, the option has declined. Some transferred their allegiance to BJD while BJP has tried to consolidate its appeal among the Adivasis in western Odisha. The shrinking of Congress on Odisha’s politi­cal landscape has helped the saffron camp as tribals, Dalits and small and marginal farmers were an essential part of the party’s support base. The failure of Congress to frame organic narratives rather than accusing BJP of conspiring to undo reservations or subverting democracy—which fails to convince voters—has hurt the party.

The Sambalpur Lok Sabha constituency is large and diverse. The road from Bhubaneswar to Sambalpur traverses dry land and a forest range. The route from the main Sambalpur town to Deogarh traverses a luxurious forest and vil­lages with Adivasi populations that is a part of the reserved (Scheduled Tribe) Kuchinda Assembly seat, cur­rently held by BJD. The Sambalpur constituency stretches all the way to Chhendipada, which is almost halfway back to Bhubaneswar. At a small pitstop on the road to Deogarh, a teacher at a local school explains the challenge he and his colleagues face. The school has about 100 stu­dents and three teachers. “How can teaching be done in a proper manner? If one of the teachers is on leave or falls ill, it becomes more dif­ficult. The syllabus we cover is from Class I to 8,” he says. The contest, say locals here, is a keen one and it is hard to tell whether BJP or BJD will make it. Close races seem to mark elections in Assembly segments that are part of Sambalpur. The Lok Sabha contest has pitted BJP’s Dharmendra Pradhan against BJD’s Pranab Das (Bobby) in a tough fight but it is felt the Modi factor gives the former the edge. Pradhan sharply attacked BJD over videos of Patnaik, criticising a “clerk” (that is, Pandian) over the appropriateness of making the leader wear a shabby lungi. Later, BJP alleged Pandian pushed Patnaik out of the campaign in light of his own ambitions. Asked whether such attacks may allow BJD to invoke regional sentiment, Pradhan said it is BJP that represents the regional identity issue. The Pandianfactoriscertainlybeingdebated, andwhileitisnotagitating voters beyond a point, it helps BJP keep BJD off balance.

A NEW BRICK CONSTRUCTION is coming up at an Adivasi village closer to Deogarh, past the forested areas, and a group of women are doing all the work. Rasmita Soreng can speak Hindi well but is hesitant to spell out the voting choices of the village. Along with her neighbour Archana, she is prepared to talk about life in the village of Gan­dam, which according to Census 2011, has a 40 per cent tribal population, with Dalits comprising close to 15 per cent. The wa­ter comes from a handpump shared by many households and, not unlike other places, medical services are at a distance. The women point out that the subsidised cooking gas under the Ujj­wala scheme is not easy to access as there is no delivery at the village. People have to travel a good 10-12km to the nearest retailer, adding to the costs per cylinder, and reduc­ing the advantage of using cooking gas. As the conversation progresses, the women, most in their 20s and 30s, point to the lack of options be­yond the small family farmsteads. They have not heard much about initiatives like “lakhpati didis” that the prime minister touched upon in the context of empowering women at the grassroots, and not very familiar with BJP. However, they agree that if given the oppor­tunity, they would like to explore the possibility of forming self-help groups and adding to agricultural incomes through apiculture and vegetable crops. In a revealing pointer to Congress’ missed chanc­es, Rasmita says they do think of the party, but realise it has no pros­pects. “Kya karein, Congress toh aati nahin (What to do, Congress does not win),” she said. To the south of Deogarh’s hilly parts, in the Assem­bly segment, the anti-BJD mood is evident. A group of men include Biju and Dasra Naik, and Dinesh and Dhruv. Most work far away, engaged in skilled jobs like weld­ing and construction. Biju says he is prepared to earn less if he could find employment nearer home. Dinesh subsists on the meagre fishing catch at a nearby water body that offers returns during and after the monsoon. “Right now, there is no water to drink and bath, what to speak of fishing,” he says. Their spirits, despite their tough circumstances, are more upbeat than might be expected. They are clear that BJP and Modi are their choice, noting it is time for change.

The busy village of Hariprasad in Puri is quite distant from De­ogarh, but the mood here too is one of “parivartan (change)”, and the beneficiary is BJP leader Sambit Patra. The leader’s slip of the tongue about Mahaprabhu being a devotee of Modi does not appear to have cost him much. The mood is pro-BJP and voters laugh off the gaffe and say BJP will do well in the four Assembly seats too, two of which the party holds. Polling day is at hand, and both BJP and BJD are holding rallies. Several motorbikes carrying BJP flags head to a nearby meeting. Half-a-dozen young men, some of them students, are going to a BJD show. The youth are all voting BJD in the Assem­bly election as they feel the Patnaik government has done well. They have never seen any other government in the state but do not think it is time for change yet. For the Lok Sabha election, however, it is BJP. Odisha’s politics is in ferment. It is unclear whether BJP can topple BJP. But the BJD bastion is besieged.

2024 Elections2024: The CountdownDharmendra PradhanGeneral election 2024Naveen PatnaikOdishapolitics