Look Who’s Pulling I.N.D.I.A. Apart

VETERAN MARATHA POLITICIAN and elder statesman of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc Sharad Pawar dis­missed speculation over fissures in the Opposition grouping with typical candour on January 14. The I.N.D.I.A. arrangement, he told the media, was cobbled together for the Lok Sabha elections and there was no discussion on strategies for state or local elections. “There has never been any talk in [about] state or local elections,” he said. The alliance leaders will, he added, discuss matters and take a view soon. Any such talk among I.N.D.I.A. constituents seems unlikely with campaigning for the Delhi Assembly polls in full swing and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress targeting one another without compunction. The possibility of a discus­sion on the forthcoming municipal elections in Maharashtra also seems remote with the Uddhav Shiv Sena declaring its intention to contest the local body polls on its own.

It is not that the alliance is being disbanded and I.N.D.I.A. leaders can indeed be expected to exchange notes in a more sub­stantial manner once the Delhi election is over. A convergence of interests will be visible when they take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Budget Session of Parliament. The constituent parties will likely display a common purpose in opposing the Modi government’s plans for One Nation, One Election and leg­islation to amend the Waqf Act in the proceedings of the parlia­mentary committees considering the relevant Bills. In all of this, they are driven by a shared objective to oppose BJP and their com­mitment to voter segments opposed to the Modi government. But as the recent Winter Session of Parliament revealed, there is an absence of synergies with ego tussles and lack of communi­cation presenting a disjointed picture. As the high of improved numbers in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls subsided and emphatic wins in Maharashtra and Haryana resuscitated BJP, I.N.D.I.A. seemed more a collection of separate strands than a purposeful coalition.

AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal fired the first shot even before the dates for the Delhi polls were announced, stating there would be no alliance with Congress. His decision was based on AAP’s difficulties in sharing constituencies since it has 62 seats in the Delhi Assembly with BJP holding the other eight. This is different from the Lok Sabha situation where neither AAP nor Congress won any seat in the 2019 polls; nor did they in 2024. There was an additional factor weighing on the AAP leader. The alliance for the Lok Sabha polls clearly identified AAP as senior partner and the party best placed to defeat BJP in Delhi. The candidates Congress picked did little to inspire confidence. Thereafter, elections in Jammu & Kashmir, where Congress failed to deliver as part of an alliance with the National Conference (NC), and crushing losses in Haryana and Maharashtra raised doubts about its capabilities to contest elections effectively. But Congress’ response might have surprised AAP as the party unveiled plans to contest the Delhi elections energetically, fielding Sandeep Dikshit, son of three-time Former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, against Kejri­wal and former Congress student union president Alka Lamba against Delhi Chief Minister Atishi. This too might not have been very threatening but AAP’s angry reaction indicates the voter sentiment might not be as favourable for the party as in the past. AAP’s concerns could be well-founded as Congress seeks to regain vote banks in slums and unauthorised colonies by promising sops that rival the ruling party’s schemes. In a battle of freebies, Congress’ pledges may seem credible given that both parties believe in extravagant welfarism. There is no evidence as yet of Congress regaining heft in Delhi but Kejriwal’s sharp rebuttal of Rahul Gandhi’s mocking of AAP’s record shows the party has hit a raw nerve.

When the Vajpayee government lost office in 2004, the Nation­al Democratic Alliance (NDA) shrank too. Regional leaders like Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu, who lost the Andhra Pradesh state election to Congress, went his way and BJP’s older allies like the Akalis and Shiv Sena flexed their muscles. Rumblings within a losing alliance are not unexpected but there was a common thread that held NDA together, allowing the alli­ance to recoup when the political climate became more promising.

NDA constituents were opposed to Congress in their areas of influence and shared this alignment with BJP. The parties had till then never contested as Congress allies. Tensions were evident when a coalition of regional parties formed the United Front government in 1996-98 with the outside support of Congress which was not at ease supporting adversaries. Congress leaders from states like Andhra, Kerala and Assam could not reconcile themselves to seeing their local opponents moving around in official cars with flashing beacons due to an arrangement their party underwrote. The other differentiator is lack of a central pole as Congress’ modest numbers and unpreparedness to hold a productive dialogue with other I.N.D.I.A. constituents prove to be handicaps. In the 10 years BJP was in opposition, the party won 138 and 116 Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 and 2009 General Elections. Though it significantly lagged behind Congress’ 206 seats in 2009, BJP was able to put its perch as the main Opposition party to good effect and savvy parliamentary tactics allowed the party to pin down the government. Managing allies and coalition interests wore down Congress.

The Uddhav Sena’s announcement that it will contest corpo­ration elections in Mumbai, Thane, Pune, and Nagpur on its own steam is revealing. The argument that the party needs to test its strength, advanced by senior leader Sanjay Raut, is not surprising in the wake of a blame game following the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) debacle in the Maharashtra election. “Whatever happens will happen. We have to test our strength at some point,” said Raut. For one, the Uddhav Sena, despite its diminution, does not feel a partnership with Pawar or Congress will be fruitful in local body elections including in Mum­bai where it has a lot at stake. There might be an unstated acknowledgement that the disenchantment of its traditional vot­ers was not compensated adequately by other voter constituencies. A consolida­tion of Muslim votes and apathy among BJP voters caused in part by the inclusion of the breakaway Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Ajit Pawar in NDA saw the I.N.D.I.A. parties gain at the ex­pense of BJP and its allies in the Lok Sabha polls. The surge proved temporary as an increased turnout in the Assembly election proved to be advantageous to BJP which won 132 seats in the 288-member Assembly while the Shinde Shiv Sena won 57 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP picked up 41 seats. It was apparent that BJP’s accusation that the Uddhav Sena had abandoned Hin­dutva and was unrecognisable from the outfit founded by the late Balasaheb Thackeray had hit home. After topping the charts in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha polls with 13 seats, Congress slumped to 16 Assembly seats a few months later. After the defeat there has been no discussion within MVA as to how the allies will move ahead with important municipal elections round the corner. An NDA consolidation, particularly if it wins in Mumbai, will deepen MVA’s marginalisation.

Even before the results to elections in J&K were in, NC leader Omar Abdullah had expressed scepticism about Congress’ performance in the Hindu areas of Jammu, wondering if the ally had pulled its weight. The problem was that after a slow start, BJP picked up pace in Jammu, and the results announced on October 8, 2024 saw BJP sweeping Jammu, winning 29 seats while Congress won just six, reducing it to a minor partner of NC that won 42 seats. Since the formation of the NC-led ministry, Abdullah has shown scant regard for Congress, departing sharply from its stridently anti- BJP rhetoric and refusing to endorse allegations of faulty EVMs and the Election Commission’s (EC) alleged bias. He shared a platform with Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the inauguration of the Sonamarg tunnel, praising Modi for development initiatives in J&K and raised the demand for restoration of the region’s statehood in a non-confrontational manner. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been equally unambiguous about not supporting Congress’ attacks on EVMs and EC with party leader Mamata Banerjee’s heir apparent Abhishek Banerjee pointing to a detailed procedure in the operation of the machines and the counting process. “If work is done properly at the time of EVM randomisation and the people who work on the booth check during mock polls and counting, then I don’t think there is any substance in the allegation,” Banerjee told the media during the Winter Session of Parliament.

There is little doubt that had the I.N.D.I.A. bloc scored an upset win in the Lok Sabha polls it would have hung together, weathering all manner of contradictions, just as the United Pro­gressive Alliance did. Congress would have had an opportunity to lead an alliance and revive its credentials as a national party. Since that did not come to pass, the transactional nature of the Opposition grouping, bound solely by its rivalry with BJP and minority-centric politics, has risen to the surface. Could a different result have been possible? It is increasingly clear Congress is out of sync with the other Opposition parties. The programme for Rahul Gandhi’s forthcoming visit to Patna revolves round the theme of BJP being a “threat to democracy” despite the scepticism of allies whether the idea resonates beyond a small echo chamber. Congress’ unilateralism and the apparent lack of traction with voters alienates I.N.D.I.A. constituents and revives the latent anti-Congressism of parties like TMC. MVA in Maharashtra, where the Uddhav Sena struck a Faustian bargain with Congress and NCP, parties it tradition­ally opposed, was a similar experiment and met a predictable end once denied the elixir of power. The loaves of office are an effective glue, and though this dictum applies to all alliances, shared ideologies and a strong lead player—as BJP is in NDA— are essential to presenting a credible choice to the voter. So far, repeated attempts by Congress to rake up caste identities and continuously criticise the Modi government on all policy fronts have paid limited dividends. The absence of strategic thought in Congress and the inability to listen to others, including allies and inner-party voices, is quickening centrifugal forces within.

Akhilesh YadavArvind KejriwalAssembly Elections 2025DelhiI.N.D.I.A. allianceOmar AbdullahRahul GandhiSharad PawarUddhav Thackeray