Hope and Deliverance

THE HOT SEASON has just begun but the arid landscape and bare hilly outcrops of the Aravallis that skirt Jaipur, running through Alwar and Dausa on the one side and Sikar and rural parts of the dis­trict on the other, are already wilting under a midday sun. Patches of farmland, unevenly spread out along the countryside, are fallow with the winter crop harvested not too long ago. A forecast of a good monsoon is eagerly awaited in a region where water for agriculture is scarce. Accessing groundwater can be prohibitively expensive— without any certainty of success—at depths over 700 feet. A black-top road that runs along the Sariska Tiger Reserve in Alwar rises between shallow hilltops and descends into a rolling flat panorama dotted with farmsteads and shrubbery. It is not surprising that lack of water, for farming as well as drinking, is integral to animated discussions about the prospects of parties and candidates in chaupals (village squares), tea shops and eateries, and dust-blown farms in this slice of rural Rajasthan. Though the problem is easily identified, claims and promises of rival contenders are keenly scrutinised to settle the crucial question: Who is more likely to provide a solution?

Pratapgarh lies in Alwar district, a part of the Thanagazi Assembly seat, but falls in the Dausa Lok Sabha constituency and conversa­tion here soon splits into contending camps. One set of locals on benches in front of a small shop offers the view that while development has lagged, the Congress government voted out of office in the state just a few months ago had a dismal track record. On the other hand, the Modi government had delivered on availability and subsidy on fertilisers, direct payments to farmers, and better facilities like roads and hous­ing schemes. Listening to the conversation for a while, Parag who has been minding a bubbling tea kettle, offers that the Bharati­ya Janata Party (BJP) supporters outnumber Congress voters. Sarvar Lal and Hari, who identify themselves as farmers, disagree. Congress cannot be discounted, they aver, adding BJP lacks sup­port among Dalits and tribal voters. They are from the backward castes and argue inflation and the region’s development lag are key factors, and Congress has its adherents. The Thanagazi seat did go to Congress in the November 2023 state polls, but not by much. The BJP contender lost by less than 2,000 votes, suggesting the party could not have depended only on upper-caste votes as argued by some of the discussants. A little earlier, another set of farmers and workmen were set to vote against BJP but did not sound hopeful about the opposition’s prospects. Ayub and Abdul are vehement in arguing that the BJP government has not ben­efitted them. The odd voice in their midst that claims Congress has taken voters for a ride on quotas, draws an angry response from a neighbour listening to the conversation. Abdul mildly chides the man, while the BJP supporter is revealed to be their Hindu acquaintance. But will the opposition upset BJP’s efforts to secure a third consecutive term? “Yeh toh namumkin hai (This is impossible),” says another onlooker, flipping the BJP slogan, “Modi hai to mumkin hai (If it’s Modi, it’s possible).”

The mood is clearer at a halt along the road from Jaipur to Chomu near Sirsa village, on the way to Sikar. The contest is be­tween BJP’s Swami Sumedhanand Saraswati and I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s Amra Ram, a former MLA belonging to CPM for the Sikar Lok Sabha constituency. Amra Ram has been a farm union leader and the choice is expected to have some resonance with the Jat com­munity he hails from. Swami Sumedhanand, seeking a third term, enjoys a mixed reputation, with some complaints that he has not been effective in dealing with constituency issues. BJP leaders argue the party has just returned to office in the state and better results can be anticipated if the Modi government gets a renewed mandate. The argument has its takers even as some Jat voters seem swayed by Amra Ram’s candidature. “Modiji has done more than what has been achieved earlier. The sway of caste-based parties has declined and decisions like the [scrapping of] Article 370 and the construction of the Ram Mandir ended big disputes. In his next term, such quarrels will end altogether,” says Ram Kishan, in his mid-30s, while his younger companions nod in agreement. As else­where, water woes are a sore point, but other issues have salience too. A question about the Congress manifesto and its promise of generous payouts to youth and women and government jobs fails to impress. This group is not convinced the poll pledges are feasible or even desirable. “This is a path to indebtedness. Even if you pay money for a year or two, what will happen thereafter? What is needed is…incomes must grow,” says a youth astride a motorcycle following the con­versation keenly.

There is no doubt that local issues are being debated and discussed with voters expressing a desire for speedier local and regional devel­opment along with progress on national goals. But the nub for Congress is one of credibility. There seem few takers, even among those who indicate they might vote for Congress, for the populist spread the party has laid out to woo voters. In contrast, the Modi government—despite gaps and the burden of enhanced expecta­tions—is seen to have fulfilled commitments. Some voters point to the recovery in livelihoods after Covid, saying India has fared much better than many countries, including those in its neighbourhood. There is a general air of satisfaction over the farm procurement process, availability of schools, and medical care. “If Covid had not been controlled, the story would have been over,” says Vinod. Asked about their social backgrounds, the gathering is revealed to be a mixed bunch of Sainis [malis by caste and OBCs], Yadavs, and a cou­ple of Jats. Some distance ahead, short of the town of Palsana, which lies on a road that branches off to Khandela and Neem ka Thana (both Assembly constituencies), voters reflect a similar frame of mind. They point to the Ashok Gehlot government’s underwhelm­ing performance and the desire for visible change among people that extends to candidates and leaders. “Much of the Congress government’s time was consumed by the rivalry between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Maybe, they should have given Pilot a chance,” says Hansraj. Asked about BJP’s decision to appoint a fresh face as chief minister instead of Vasundhara Raje, the response is apprecia­tive. “It was a good decision on the part of BJP,” says Sandeep, adding the Gehlot-Vasundhara revolving door phenomenon had become stale even as it was felt there was an unstated agreement not to tread on one another’s toes. The point, felt this group, was that Congress did not have anything new or gripping to offer. If you know the odds are against you, why not essay a few bold strokes? The Congress manifesto comes across as another version of the one that prevailed in the Karnataka election in May last year. Yet, the failure of the “for­mula” just a few months later in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh does not seem to have triggered a rethink.

THERE HAS BEEN an improvement in administrative services with the introduction of online options and local officials are displaying greater efficiency, perhaps due to more effective monitoring. And though options for earning a living remain limited to local businesses like tile manufacturing and heritage and resort tourism, the sentiment is largely upbeat. At Palsana, a bustling town with a busy market, Ram Chandra, runs a shop in the main bazaar. He says employment is an issue and people here are in search of opportunities. Despite his disap­pointment over the region’s halting progress, he is dismissive of Congress’ promises of ₹1 lakh a year for youth and women. “Such offers should not be made in the first place. You will consign fu­ture generations to debt,” he says. Chandra is a Jat by caste and has farmland too. The shop is an addition to the income. It is very noticeable that arguments of Congress and other constituents of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc that the Modi government poses a threat to de­mocracy and has subverted other organs of the state and Constitu­tion find no mention. The vigorous and even combative debates and free expression of views among various sections of voters point to an aware electorate, keenly conscious of its rights and interests. In what holds lessons for parties, voters are examining manifesto pledges with greater care. The shopkeeper at Palsana remembers that the Gehlot government’s scheme of medical insurance was attractive. “Maybe, it needed to be implemented better. But a ₹25 lakh cover is very useful,” he said.

On the route to Neem ka Thana lies the village of Chala, a hamlet of about 1,000-odd households. Despite its nondescript appearance, it is at a crossroads and not far from the old Jaipur- Delhi highway. Its utility as a halt for travellers is evident from the eateries around the intersection and waiting tourist buses. Young men at a photocopier and internet services provider are willing to spend some time discussing the elections. Some of them are from the Jat community, and indicate a preference for Amra Ram, saying he has been a “sangharsh sheel neta (a leader who has struggled for causes),” a likely reference to the candidate’s left farm union background. Some others are ambivalent about their choices, but the mention of leaks of exam papers for government recruitment sparks a sharp reaction. The episode is a serious black mark against the Gehlot government and continues to evoke an­ger. The corruption of the exam process is seen to have benefitted those with resources to bribe their way through the system while honest students suffered, losing out on time spent on prepara­tion for the tests and sometimes eligibility as well. The response to the issue is uniform and is no different here, even though the sentiment leans towards the opposition candidate. Mukesh and Mahendra, who are passing by, complain no party bothers to find out what voters are thinking about when elections are not immi­nent. “If they did, like the way you are asking about what is happen­ing here, they would get a better idea of the situation,” says Mukesh.

On the other side of the square, an older bunch of men, more agrarian in appearance, is engrossed in a game of cards. It is not easy to attract their attention, but some who have thrown in their hand, are ready to talk. Their grouse, like in most other places, is about the irregular water supply. But their dissatisfaction over the situation has not made their voting choices any easier to resolve. Their experience of the inefficiency, and in some instances corrup­tion, in the previous state government’s administration makes them hesitant about considering the I.N.D.I.A. candidate. “I hear it’s a tough fight and the comrade has his chances. But what’s the use? What’s the use of being represented by someone who has no clout?,” asks a voluble member of the card-playing club, giving vent to his exasperation. Quizzed about Congress’ promises in terms of jobs and other sops, he remains unconvinced, asking “Did they not offer ₹72,000 a year to farmers last election? Do such promises mean anything at all?” Their final voting preferences remain unclear, but it is striking that the dissatisfaction with the main contestants is almost equal. Sensing the unhappiness over water supplies, BJP leaders are highlighting the Centre and state plans for irrigation and canals and also arguing that the saffron party has only just regained the reins of office in Jaipur.

Not far from Kotputli which sits on the road that meets the Jaipur highway, the village of Nareda looks like a work in prog­ress. The roads are muddy and there is a steady traffic of tractors and road-building equipment. Private transport is crowded by devotees headed for the Jind Mata temple, some 25km from Si­kar town. The annual puja held there during Navratri attracts hundreds of devotees every day, leaving the fields and homes bordering the roads with a deserted look. Subash Chand runs a shop selling household items and the people sitting on benches in front of his small establishment are not customers—they have dropped in for a chat and tea handed out in tiny paper cups. Nareda is part of Jaipur Rural Lok Sabha seat and Chand’s as­sessment that the BJP nominee is ahead does not draw much opposition. The conversation drifts to a discussion on arrests of opposition leaders in corruption cases and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s claim that these are acts of political vendetta. The argument does not seem to have many takers, with Balbir Singh, who wears a cap jauntily pointing backward, interjecting to say that those guilty of corruption must be punished. “How can the Delhi chief minister claim immunity from investigation? In Rajasthan also, we want those guilty in the paper leak case to be punished and sent to jail,” he says. The lack of empathy for opposition figures is evident not just in this muddy village. Even earlier, at Chala, the card players were vehement about prosecuting those accused of corruption. “The courts are not giving them any relief. Are the courts under the control of anyone? I don’t think so,” one of them asserted.

The contest for the 12 seats stretching from the sprawling Bikaner seat to the west to Bharatpur in the east has been engag­ing and intense. BJP’s larger narrative that a government with a strong majority is a necessity to achieve economic growth and safeguard the nation wrestles with pockets of local discontent. A vibrant democratic discourse in cities, towns, and villages is evidence that every view has been considered and evaluated. The distrust of extravagant promises as opposed to the perceived delivery of the Modi government welfare schemes, as well as an appreciation of the prime minister’s preparedness to tackle lingering sticky problems might provide a hint to the outcome. But that does not make the heat of the battle any less intense.

2024 Elections2024: CountdownAmit ShahBJPCongressGeneral election 2024local issuesRajasthan