Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Five things to watch out for in the days to come

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is on. The deal was brokered by Qatar, with the help of the United States and Egypt. In fact, before he took oath, the US President-elect Donald Trump had engaged one of his close friends, Steven Witkoff, to convey to the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, that he wanted the deal in motion before he took office. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported how Netanyahu tried to stave off Witkoff citing Shabbat, the Jewish day of rest, but Witkoff, who is Jewish himself, responded by saying that he did not care what day it was. This forced Netanyahu to come on board quickly. In the first stage of the ceasefire, that is to last 42 days, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, while Israel will release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (in the first stage Hamas and Israel will follow a release ration of 1:30).

Here are five things to watch out for once the first stage is over:

1. Who gets to reign over Gaza?

This depends on what happens in the second and third phase of the ceasefire. Israel has maintained that the Hamas leadership will have to go. Attempts are being made to create a national unity government, of which all prominent Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Fatah will be part of. This government will then take over the “free” zones of Gaza, West Bank, and Jerusalem. In July last year, China facilitated a deal for “national unity” that was signed by 14 Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah.

2. Will Israel release Marwan Barghouti?

The most popular leader among Palestinians is currently in an Israeli prison. He is the one who will be acceptable to every Palestinian faction for heading the national unity government. “He is the man who can bring the entire Palestinian society together,” says Saurabh Kumar Shahi, an expert on Middle-East affairs. Someone who has led both the first and second intifada against Israel, Barghouti has been in jail since the early 2000s. How dangerous Israel considers him can be gauged from the fact that in 2011 during a prisoner exchange deal for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, it chose to release the now slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar among more than a thousand others, but held back Barghouti.

3. What happens in the West Bank?

A concession Trump has offered to Israel for the ceasefire deal is to cancel sanctions on militant Israeli settlers in West Bank who often use extreme violence against Palestinians, killing them and destroying their property. This, says Shahi, will only result in more violence in the area, as it will embolden extremist Jews. This in turn could lead to further conflict, with countries like Iran getting more involved. For instance, it could lead to the further rise of a new militant organisation called the Lion’s Den. For the last couple of years, the group has carried out several attacks against Israeli soldiers and settlers in West Bank. “With anger inside Jordan rising against its own government (for collaborating with Israel) some resistance elements there could bypass the government and actively get involved in the West Bank,” says Shahi.

4. How will the Israeli blockade of Gaza play out?

Since the mid 2000s, Israel has severely restricted movement from Gaza, isolating it from the rest of the Palestinian territories. How this will play out will depend on the United States, primarily its new president, Trump. That is difficult to see since Trump himself is extremely unpredictable on such matters. On January 15, Trump shared a video of Jewish-American economist Jeffrey Sachs on his social media platform in which Sachs called Netanyahu “a dark son of a b****.” On the other hand, Trump has said in past that there will be hell to pay if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages before he assumes office.

5. Will there be a churn in the US Democratic Party?

There are clear indications now that the party’s Vice President Kamala Harris lost votes because of what Democratic voters considered Biden’s complacency in the destruction Israel caused in Gaza. According to a poll, for 29 percent of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris in 2024, “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was the top issue affecting their vote choice, more than the economy that came at 24 percent. For the new generation of Democratic leaders whose Israel policy may not get influenced by the legacy of Holocaust, there might be a turnaround. In another eye-opening survey, 42 percent of American Jewish teens believed that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Democratic Party leaders, who wish to fight elections, can no longer afford to ignore this opinion.

BarghoutiCeasefireGazaHamasNetanyahuTrumpWest BankWitkoff