Now the BJP Finds Its Centre Can’t Hold

The BJP’s troubles in Karnataka are set to worsen, as Yeddyurappa gears up for the next Assembly election in the state

BANGALORE ~ It’s quite ironic. The man who faced several rebellions when he was Karnataka’s Chief Minister for three years, is today leading one himself—trying to force the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) central leadership to reinstate him as Chief Minister. It seems to matter little that BS Yeddyurappa has been indicted in the state Lokayukta’s report on mining and he faces a series of private complaints in courts for favouring his friends and family, or that he had to give up the post of Chief Minister at the height of the 2G scam so the BJP could keep its anti-corruption image propped up. Regardless of all this, the ex-Chief Minister of Karnataka has been setting deadlines for the party’s central leadership, and these leaders in Delhi don’t quite know what to do with him. It’s a classic Catch-22 situation: to capitulate would send out the wrong message and ignoring him would weaken the party’s grip on the state.

This week, Yeddyurappa and 70 more MLAs checked into a highway resort on the outskirts of Bangalore. From this stronghold, he served a 48-hour ultimatum to his party bigwigs, telling them to reinstate him before the Budget Session, or at least make him the state’s party president. He pointed out that even the High Court has given him a clean chit in the mining report. The BJP leadership, however, continues to back Sadananda Gowda as Chief Minister despite an electoral setback in the Udupi-Chikmagalur Lok Sabha seat bypoll—a seat that Gowda had vacated when he became Chief Minister.

“Any other decision would bring the party closer to an early poll [the current Assembly term is scheduled to end in May 2013]. Yeddyurappa has also lost the moral right to be CM thanks to assorted corruption and discretionary land denotificaton cases. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), with its ear to the ground, has given many adverse reports against reinstating Yeddyurappa,” a senior BJP leader reveals.

The ex-Chief Minister’s stand has left the party flummoxed, and the RSS, which has brokered peace once too often, at its wits’ end. A grassroots leader, Yeddyurappa has clearly driven a wedge between the two dominant communities in Karnataka—Lingayats and Vokkaligas—and billed his reinstatement as a contest between the two. His refrain is: “Lingayats have supported the BJP and enabled it to come to power for the first time in South India. The community cannot be insulted.” This has also been seconded by many seers who had gained from his largesse. Lingayats form 22 per cent of the state’s population, roughly the same as Vokkaligas.

During Yeddyurappa’s tenure, the Karnataka government had granted over Rs 200 crore to various religious maths and temples. A god-fearing man himself, Yeddyurappa spent a lot of his time temple hopping across South India praying for various rebellions to end. He even offered elephants to appease several gods, a practice that is banned in Karnataka. Such is his belief in all things spiritual, that when someone told him to perform suryanamaskar in the buff, he is said to have done that too.

The 18 March byelection to the Udupi-Chikmagalur Parliament seat had become a test of strength for various BJP factions, which worked hard to undermine one another. It is now clear that the party didn’t back its official candidate due to all the internal bickering.

The byelection victory has left the Congress smiling, which had galvanised itself for the contest and rolled out a galaxy of leaders to campaign for this Lok Sabha seat. The Congress has also, for once, started preparing well in advance for a possible Assembly poll. It has also put four Union ministers in charge of the state’s various districts.

Yeddyurappa—facing a host of corruption charges and allegation that he favoured the Congress candidate in the bypoll—feels that he is being victimised. The former CM was obviously instrumental in building the party in Karnataka, from a handful of seats two decades ago to the current 120, but his three-year stint as CM was known more for the dozen odd rebellions he faced and an overactive governor who was seen as going all out to get rid of him.

It is not as if Yeddyurappa’s image has improved. He had employed less than squeaky-clean means to shore up the required numbers for government formation, even offering ministerial berths to sundry independents. Operation Lotus too was hardly befitting of a chief minister of the ‘party with a difference’. The ‘operation’ involved poaching opposition MLAs, who resigned and contested again on BJP tickets.

Later, faced with waves of insurgency, Yeddyurappa bought time, brokered deals and even bullied the BJP central leadership to toe his line in trying to ensure the survival of it’s first-ever government in South India. To his credit, he successfully managed to avert a crisis at least two times after the infamous Reddy brothers of Bellary rallied against him. However, while fighting all these fights, Yeddyurappa lost many of his trusted ministers to various scams. The final blow came in the form of the Karnataka Lokayukta’s report on mining, which indicted him and his family members for allegedly favouring a company in exchange for payoffs.

His precarious position worsened when Karnataka Governor Hans Raj Bhardwaj sanctioned the prosecution of Yeddyurappa, based on a petition by a lawyer duo who had alleged several counts of corruption. The unprecedented step had raised a big a debate about governors pushing the envelope on constitutional matters.

However, still worse news for Yeddyurappa came when the undue haste and actions of the Governor led to a showdown between the Congress and the BJP. That was also the time that the 2G scam was making headlines. When accused of double standards in dealing with the corrupt, the BJP replaced Yeddyurappa. There was a tacit understanding that he would be brought back once all the noise had died down. It is this assurance that Yeddyurappa wants fulfilled, especially after a reprieve from the High Court.

Suddenly, he now seems to feel that he is an undisputed leader, the BJP’s best possible CM, and wants to come back and complete his term.

But things have changed. Insiders say that Yeddyurappa is aware that the party’s honeymoon with Karnataka’s voters is over. The BJP too is aware that it may not fare too well in case of an early poll. “Whenever elections are held, the Congress is going to come back to power,” says state Congress President G Parameshwar. Till a few months ago, Parameshwar had a tough time keeping his flock together, as the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was fishing in troubled waters and had even extended an invitation to Yeddyurappa.

It is here that the importance of Yeddyurappa comes into play. Alienating Lingayats (who are currently united behind him) will be seen as being anti-Vokkaliga (whose vote is divided between the BJP, Congress and Janata Dal Secular). In fact, the Congress has already sensed that Vokkaligas are key to their fortunes. After the bypoll, one of the first things that External Affairs Minister SM Krishna did was pay obeisance to a Vokkaliga seer. Krishna is expected to play a major role in the Congress resurgence. The seer too has indicated that if the BJP sacrifices CM Gowda, the community could desert it. Traditionally, seers heading various religious maths have influenced vote swings.

The crisis for the BJP worsens. Yeddyurappa is getting ready to fight the next election without the BJP, if needed. Though Gali Janardhan Reddy has been jailed in the Andhra Pradesh illegal mining case, Yeddyurappa has managed to win over his brother Gali Karunakara Reddy. He has also brought together new fund managers from north Karnataka who had prospered under him. He seems ready to roll on even without party credits.

For the BJP central leadership, the going will only get tougher with the demise of VS Acharya, a senior BJP leader and former minister who was a balancing factor. “Acharya was someone in whom Yeddyurappa confided. He was also the favourite state leader the central leadership consulted,” says a BJP source.

As the state looks certain to head for an early poll, a heady cocktail of math heads, educationists and liquor barons is slowly fgetting admixed. It is a signal the BJP cannot ignore.

BJPBS YeddyurappaKarnataka