Half Measures in Guwahati

If the Bharatiya Janata Party is keen to regain power at the Centre, its latest party conclave showed that it wouldn’t like it to happen anytime soon

GUWAHATI The year 2010 ended on a high note for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The principal opposition party, with the help of others, managed to corner the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government on the 2G spectrum scam, even if it meant paralysing Parliament for almost the entire length of the winter session. Invigorated by its own vehemence, the BJP declared that the Budget session would see similar disruptions if its demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) to probe the scam was not met. The start of 2011 has seen the party equally voluble. Its chorus on Congress corruption hit a high octave after the Bofors scam of the 80s was raked up by the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal’s saying that kickbacks for that arms deal were indeed paid to Ottavio Quattrocchi and Win Chadha.

So, when the BJP met for its national executive meeting last week in Guwahati, Assam, internal expectations ran high that the top brass would chalk out a serious strategy to declare an all-out war against the Congress-led UPA and set the stage for a comeback of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), perhaps as early as later this year.

In the event, conclave attendants did get the satisfaction of some angry fist clenches; BJP speakers did make direct attacks on Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, signalling an escalation in hostilities. But overall, it is the Congress that can derive satisfaction from how the Guwahati meeting turned out. For all the rants against corruption and roars against inflation, the BJP would rather wait for the 2014 general election to try ousting the UPA rather than try toppling it now. An opposition unprepared for a mid-term poll is not just an assurance, it’s sweet music to the Congress’ ears as it prepares for a potentially difficult Budget session next month.

All the same, the BJP is not giving up on its long list of rallies and public meetings planned to slam corruption—the 2G spectrum, Commonwealth Games and Adarsh Housing Society scams—according to party General Secretary and Chief Spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad. “From 20 January, we will have block-level public meetings for a month,” he says, “In March, we will have meetings in villages to highlight the rampant corruption and rising prices during the UPA regime.” The village outreach effort in March will coincide with the Budget session of Parliament, likely to be wracked by the Bofors scandal as much as howls for a JPC.

The Bofors gun scandal has armed the BJP with fresh ammunition that the party doesn’t want squandered. Yet, despite the tirade against the UPA, the BJP seems wary of a mid-term poll. This is an odd way for any opposition to behave. LK Advani, the party’s prime ministerial hope in 2009, even went on to tell delegates that talk of any mid-term poll is “scare mongering orchestrated by the Congress to deflect attention from issues of corruption”.  This, after BJP President Nitin Gadkari announced in his opening address that the “BJP-led NDA would form the next government in 2014.”

Many BJP members are puzzled. After all, last year saw the NDA storm back to power in Bihar with an enhanced victory margin, even if this happened after the BJP agreed to play second fiddle to its ally, the Janata Dal-United, and the latter’s campaign was all about Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The fact still is that the BJP won nearly 90 per cent of the 100 plus seats it contested. In Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, too, it has raised its representation in local bodies at the cost of the Congress.

Yet, the BJP also knows that this is not a year of major electoral gains for it. In the major states where elections are scheduled—Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu—it is neither the ruling party nor the main challenger. Also, on how aggressive its approach in the Budget session should be, there are differences among top leaders. Recently, in a response to Open on whether the party would prevent the passage of the Finance Bill in the coming session, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj said, “No, not at all. We never create constitutional crises. Even in the winter session, we allowed the Government to pass supplementary demands.” Another senior BJP leader, however, said that it was well within the rights of the opposition to block the Bill and topple the UPA Government. “It is not a matter that will be decided by one leader. The party leadership will decide,” the leader added.

Differences among top BJP leaders are also a concern for the party. In his address, Gadkari referred to “differences amongst senior leaders on important issues” and warned that these would harm the party’s electoral prospects. In the same speech, he remarked that BJP leaders and workers should “follow the high moral standards set by leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani”. “Our party has a legacy. I appeal to our chief ministers, leaders and party workers not to do anything which would spoil the name of the party or make anybody point a finger at us,” Gadkari said in his presidential address, as Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa listened on. But, the Chief Minister who is facing a judicial enquiry on corruption charges in his state seems to have got away with just that. In the proceedings that followed, the corruption allegations against him were not even discussed. “The matter was not discussed at all,” National Spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman confirmed.

There are differences not just between the party’s top leaders, but even between different NDA constituents. Despite JD-U Chief and NDA Convenor Sharad Yadav’s assertion that the party’s proposal to hoist the national flag at Lal Chowk in Srinagar should be deferred in the interests of peace in the Kashmir Valley, the party is keen on going ahead with the plan. “We will certainly hoist the flag in Srinagar. We are not doing anything illegal, but if we are, arrest us,” says Anurag Thakur, MP and president of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, and also the man leading the yatra from Kolkata to Srinagar. He is oblivious of murmurs within the BJP that the yatra could distract the party from its campaign against corruption and end up blunting it. “There are so many parties in the NDA,” says Thakur in response to Sharad Yadav’s objection, “There are bound to be differences on some matters.” As it happens, the ‘so many parties’ that Thakur refers to were not visible at the NDA’s ‘Maharally against corruption’ that followed the national executive meet last Sunday at Guwahati. Yadav was the only non-BJP senior leader of the NDA at the rally. Noticeably missing was Shiromani Akal Dal (Badal) Chief Parkash Singh Badal, as also his son Sukhbir Badal. Instead, they sent a lightweight local leader of the party, Prem Singh Chandumajra. The Thackerays of the Shiv Sena also sent a substitute. In fact, with the exception of Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister PK Dhumal, other BJP chief ministers also skipped the rally—including Narendra Modi. Even senior party leader Jaswant Singh, recently entrusted with the task of forging relations with other parties for a resurgent NDA, was missing. At this rate, ousting the UPA at the Centre will take foever.

BJP