Why Yogi Is Confident

THE SMALL BUT sturdy chopper has just taken off from Shahbad in Uttar Pradesh’s (UP) Hardoi district. The dust whipped up by the blades is swirling, but people lined on the roofs or dispersing from the field where a “chunav sabha” (election meeting) has just concluded are still waving at the departing bird. Just as Yogi Adityanath settles back in his seat, an aide reaches out with a single sheet of paper with talking points for the next meeting, outlining key local notables who would be present and issues that needed mention.

It takes Adityanath a few minutes to scan the sheet before he closes his eyes for a catnap. Elections for the third phase are closing and the UP chief minister and Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) poll mascot is on a quick foray into Hardoi and Rae Bareli, the schedule having been drawn up at the last minute. “I was told that this push would help, so we are going to places that were finalised just last evening,” he says as the chopper begins its descent for the next halt 20-odd minutes later. The campaign venues are in the rural interiors as evident from the unbroken rolling green and brown patchwork of the countryside and have been chosen with care, small bastis and markets that are nerve centres of local life.

The crowd at Mallawan, as at other places, numbers a few thousand and has been waiting impatiently. Shouts of “Modi, Yogi” break out as the chief minister reaches the ground. Given the relative remoteness of the location, it is a goodly gathering. Adityanath dives straight into his speech once greetings and introductions are over, asserting that his government has changed the paradigm of development and governance in contrast to caste and political mafias who ruled the roost under his predecessors. “There is a difference that is obvious to all of you. This is because development is not just a slogan for us and we are committed to deliver what is due to you,” he says.

THE VACCINATION PROGRAMME is a significant component of Adityanath’s pitch, a decision reflecting confidence that rather than being a weak spot as some analysts and political opponents have argued, the state’s Covid management is in fact a marker of efficient governance. The chief minister points to the mild impact of the Omicron wave to contend that UP has done a good job and targets rivals like Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav as naysayers. “The arrival and departure of the third wave was hardly noticed. This was because we worked tirelessly to ensure vaccines reached everyone. This saved us. Now, there were those who said this is a ‘BJP vaccine, Modi vaccine’…Please tell them it is Modi vaccine that worked. Inko vote ki chot do (Make them feel the hurt of the vote). Reject them on polling day with a slap,” he says. With UP delivering 28.8 crore doses (16.45 crore first doses) for a population of 25 crore, the chief minister feels he has earned bragging rights and doesn’t hesitate to rub it in. “How many of you have been vaccinated?” he asks and seeing raised hands, adds, “Did you have to pay for the shots?” The crowd roars back “No!”

The crowds at Adityanath’s meetings have a strong representation of enthusiastic youth and a fair number of women. The chief minister refers to this as the chopper resumes its onward journey, saying this would not be the case if the opposition’s claims about widespread discontent over unemployment were true. He counters by pointing out that the state has stayed afloat despite two years of Covid and welfare schemes have sustained the vulnerable. The situation could very well have been the other way round, he says. Adityanath intersperses his short speeches, usually no more than 20 minutes, with a series of questions seeking affirmative responses. “Unlike in the past, are you getting regular electricity? Earlier there would be no electricity on Diwali and Holi but there would be on Eid…Now, are you not getting electricity without any discrimination?” he asks. The same goes for law and order, which the chief minister says touches everyone, and with free rations. The robust and approving responses bolster his assessment that the election is going well for BJP.

As the UP polls hurtle to a much-anticipated finale, it is clear that Adityanath is fighting the most important election of his career, ever since he took over the Gorakhpur parliamentary seat from his guru Mahant Avaidyanath in 1998 and at 26 became the youngest member of the 12th Lok Sabha. A personal and political voyage that began in the Garhwal hills as Ajay Bisht and sent him to New Delhi as a five-time MP via Gorakhpur took an unexpected turn when he was named chief minister after BJP’s big win in the 2017 Assembly election. The decision moved Adityanath from the sidelines of his party to centrestage, making him a key factor in BJP’s political planning as sweeping verdicts in UP, that came at the expense of caste satraps Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati, have set up Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s successive Lok Sabha majorities. A win in the current election will reaffirm BJP’s front-runner status for the 2024 General Election but will also secure a seat for Adityanath at BJP’s high table. He became chief minister as a nominee of the leadership, but if he succeeds, it will be as much because of his Hindutva and ‘doer’ credentials apart from the Modi factor. His cut-outs jostle with Modi’s at rallies and the reception he receives, particularly from younger voters, sets him apart. He is unapologetic in his advocacy of Hindutva as he says being Hindu is his identity and he does not need to tom-tom the fact (see interview). In the politically polarised cauldron of eastern UP, his Hindu Vahini was seen as a counter to political mafias of a rival colour and he made no bones about his unflinching support for causes like cow protection. Yet, as an administrator, he surprised many, including those in his own party. He displayed a natural instinct for fiscal prudence (the poll promise of a farm loan waiver was mostly financed from the state budget) associated with economic conservatives. But he also adopted a welfarist approach, using technology to improve accountability while the economic viability of welfare schemes was not lost sight of. Adityanath rebuts suggestions that the schemes are ‘doles’ encouraging dependence, saying government assistance has led to asset creation and higher incomes.

A mid-air lunch is served as the chopper sets course for Rae Bareli and while the rest of the company opens boxes with roti, kichadi with gram dal and a beans and potato mix, Adityanath unzips a pack with three small containers. No carbs for him, as he quickly disposes modest portions of lightly fried vegetables and a helping of fruit. He elaborates on why he considers police reforms an important agenda, looking beyond political aspects of law and order where he reminds voters of the bias of the SP government and the free run of politically aligned mafias. “When I assumed office, the Supreme Court had banned police recruitment due to scams. We presented a plan to make the process transparent and the court relented…this took some time,” he said, adding that he instructed the testing agency to ensure no leaks. “Even I should not know what you are doing,” he says as having emphasised. Promising fair policing is one thing, making it happen is another. Fresh recruitment was followed by upgrading capacities for forensics and cyber crime investigation. “New police stations and living quarters and more women personnel,” he says were some of the goals set, adding that modernisation of the police force is absolutely essential in view of the diverse—and even transnational—nature of security challenges.

THE CHIEF MINISTER’S ‘tough guy’ image has been fashioned by the ‘encounter’ policy the police adopted early in his tenure, where criminals wanted for serious offences risked being shot if they resisted arrest, and later measures, such as seeking reparations for damages during the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests. The damages sought for rioting have come under adverse scrutiny of the Supreme Court but Adityanath believes such pro-active steps nipped the violence in the bud and says that there was a clear design to spark riots first in Aligarh and then in Kanpur, Lucknow, Bareilly and Varanasi. “It was no coincidence that violence broke out at Aligarh around the same time as it did at Jamia [in Delhi],” he says. Pointing to the incidence of rioting having plummeted during his tenure, Adityanath tells a crowd at Mallawan in Hardoi, “I caught hold of the pulse [nabz] of the rioters.” Like Modi, he seeks to make a political connection between ‘cycle’ and the anti-terror verdict of a Gujarat court in the serial blasts case where IEDs were planted on bicycles, and reiterates his message that unlike in the case of SP, his government has not been slack in combating terrorism, a discourse that goes down well with the crowd.

At Lalganj in Rae Bareli, Adityanath focuses on Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, accusing them of being bystanders during the Covid crisis. “Did the brother-sister from Delhi turn up and ask about you? All that they did was raise doubts about vaccines,” he says, adding that Priyanka’s list of 1,000 buses to be provided to ferry migrants was riddled with inaccuracies. “Registration numbers of two-wheelers were passed off as buses,” he claims. More damagingly, he accuses Congress of having ‘obstructed’ the construction of the Ram Mandir, saying the Gandhi siblings are scrambling to prove they are Ram bhakts. He points to BJP’s commitment to a temple in Ayodhya as an example of its ability to walk the talk. The mandir is not the main point of his speeches but comes in handy in arguing that the construction of the temple would not have begun if BJP had not been in office in Delhi and Lucknow. As his pointed messaging indicates, Adityanath deftly weaves in Hindutva themes with development and governance, often playing to a subtle overlap when he targets mafias he says were promoted by SP. Interestingly, though BJP managers insist BSP’s vote has not dwindled to the levels anticipated by some commentators, the chief minister does not dwell much on Mayawati, apart from referring now and again to public funds vanishing without trace in the elephant’s large belly, an obvious reference to the party’s poll symbol. While raising the stakes on law and order, the chief minister picks on Rahul Gandhi’s remarks in Lok Sabha describing India as a “union of states” and not a nation to argue that BJP’s opponents cannot be trusted with handling national security in a responsible fashion. As he winds up campaigning for the day, Adityanath takes a few minutes to respond to the “Baba bulldozer” jibe levelled by Akhilesh Yadav, saying the machine can target properties of criminals as well as flatten the earth for highways which he says the government is building speedily. Aware of the significant presence of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in the seats going to the polls, he refers to the late Kalyan Singh and rebukes SP leaders for failing to pay their tributes, indirectly raising the question whether this was due to vote-bank considerations.

As a setting sun casts long shadows, the energy levels at the large clearing where the Rae Bareli meeting was held remain high. Shouts of “Yogi, Yogi” follow the chief minister as he latches the safety harness and the chopper’s blades spin faster and the engine noise rises to a shrill whine. The day has not ended and there are a couple of meetings in Lucknow before the campaign ends at 6PM. As the pilots set course, an aide briefs the chief minister on engagements later in the evening. Soon the helicopter settles on a field adjacent to the chief minister’s official residence and Adityanath quickly alights. Shortly, a radio message informs he has entered his quarters.

Akhilesh YadavAssembly electionBJPElection 2022Uttar PradeshYogi Adityanath