The Winning Factor

THE BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY’S (BJP) decision to field MPs and ministers in the forth­coming round of five Assembly elections has been interpreted variously, with political rivals claim­ing this is evidence that the party faces an uphill task and some commentators seeing a plan to project alterna­tives to existing leaderships in poll-bound states. It is indeed true that BJP has not named a chief ministerial choice in Raj­asthan, has stopped short of endorsing Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh or former Chief Minister Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. In Telangana, too, where the par­ty is perceived to be lagging after having showed early promise, three MPs have been asked to contest along with three former MPs. It remains to be seen if a minister is asked to contest in the seats that are still undeclared.

This is not the first time BJP has asked MPs and former MPs to stand in state polls. Although sometimes seen as a ‘demotion’, MPs who moved from Parliament to state Assemblies have been made ministers. Yashodhara Raje, currently sports minister in Madhya Pradesh, was a Lok Sabha MP. The late Kiran Maheshwari, who made her mark as an articulate Lok Sabha MP, returned to the Rajasthan Assembly to become a member of the Vasundhara Raje ministry and won the Rajsamand seat even when BJP lost the 2018 election. Yet, BJP’s selections have caught attention for the num­ber of MPs asked to contest (seven each in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh) and the party’s decision to do so despite dissent among local candidates and hopefuls. There was speculation that more MPs could be sent to the polling fields and that BJP held its hand after the first round of announcements. The party seems to have taken a call not only about the number of MPs it has picked for the state elections but also on their winnability and ability to convey a political message and influence nearby seats. The BJP leader­ship understands the importance of polls in these states which are scheduled ahead of the Lok Sabha polls (barring a disruption in the electoral cycle), even if the results reflect regional consid­erations. The party faces tough challenges that include beating incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and facing a skilful opponent in Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. Even in Rajasthan, despite the infighting that has detracted from governance, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s ability to mix populism with shrewd electoral strategies cannot be underestimated. The BJP leadership is aware that every seat counts and the MPs who are contesting are expected to prove their worth.

In Madhya Pradesh, Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, MoS for Food Processing Prahlad Singh Patel, and MoS for Rural Development Faggan Singh Kulaste are contest­ing in their ‘home’ seats. Tomar is seen to wield influence in the Bhind-Morena region and has been hitting the campaign trail hard since his candidature was announced. With a low profile, he comes across as a leader with a grassroots connect and has sometimes been spoken of as a likely chief minister. Kulaste is contesting a reserved seat and Patel has the reputation of an ener­getic leader in Mahakaushal. The picks among MPs also reflect a consideration of factors like BJP’s wooing of the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and women. Riti Pathak, MP from Sidhi (a former bastion of the Arjun Singh clan) is in the fray. Among the young­er BJP leaders in Parliament, Pathak has a good electoral record, winning elections to panchayat posts before being elected to Lok Sabha. Among the factors influencing the BJP leadership is a desire to ensure the party fights as a unit without significant dissidence. The decision to pitch some heavyweights into the poll arena could be a means to ensure they deliver as their own fortunes ride on the results. They would be under pressure to get themselves and their supporters elected in order to retain clout in the party or be eligible for higher responsibilities. Factional divisions in BJP have often hurt the party in Madhya Pradesh and reports indicate that dissonance has declined and all key players are busy working for electoral success.

In Rajasthan, the decision to field Diya Kumari from the Jai­pur royal family is BJP’s latest experiment with royals whom it has often chosen for electoral contests. Some see it as a signal to former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, herself from the Scindias of Gwalior and ‘daughter-in-law’ of the erstwhile Jat kingdom of Dholpur. It would be premature to reach a conclusion on Raje’s status in BJP even though she has not been named the chief min­isterial face. The experienced leader is, like other state leaders, under the tap and will need to prove that her clout counts with voters. Whether she will remain confined to her base or asked to campaign in other parts of the state will be watched closely. But Diya Kumari’s candidature can be seen as a bid to freshen the mix in a state where BJP veterans have ruled the roost. It is certainly a test for her to win a seat in Jaipur having previously been MLA from Sawai Madhopur before being elected to Lok Sabha in 2019. Former Union Minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore will contest from Jyotwara, a rural seat in Jaipur. He has not had much to do since he was excluded from the Modi government in 2019. This is seen as an opportunity to get into the rough and tumble of state politics and a window to new responsibilities if the party does well. In Madhya Pradesh, senior leader Kailash Vijayvargiya has been asked to con­test, a decision he is not comfortable with. As the party sees it, the BJP senior should do his bit or—if he feels done with elections— announce that he is stepping out of electoral politics.

The elections have another bearing for the MPs and ministers who have been given party tickets. Failure could not only be a setback for their careers in state politics but also impact their candidature for Lok Sabha even though the ma­jor factor that powered BJP to two successive Lok Sabha wins was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the endorsement of voters who see him as a strong and decisive leader. While encouraging a new leadership is certainly an objective, the strategy can vary, as in Chhattisgarh where Raman Singh’s candidature could mean he remains a contend­er for the top job. It has certainly resulted in Baghel spending time countering Singh’s statements which the chief minister seems to regard as a political challenge that requires a response. In the mix of strategies and objectives, the BJP brass looks to use MPs as force multipliers and give them more productive roles. With Lok Sabha elections round the corner, vacancies in the House will not matter as no by-election will be scheduled now.

2024: CountdownFaggan Singh KulasteGeneral election 2024Kailash VijayvargiyaNarendra Singh TomarPrahlad Singh PatelRajyavardhan Rathore