The Peace Dividend

THE RAMALA COOPERATIVE sugar mill in Chhaprauli, where a group of farmers is chatting under a pleasant winter sun at noon while waiting for heavy loads of sugarcane on tractors to be offloaded, provides a lens that looks both backward and forward on the political landscape of western Uttar Pradesh (UP), contextualising a significant election and a seething social ferment uncorked by a dramatic verdict in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

A part of Baghpat, not far from a meandering Yamuna that separates UP from Haryana, Chhaprauli was the karmabhoomi of Jat stalwart Charan Singh, a son of the soil whose success in forging a durable agrarian caste-community alliance helped him become India’s fifth prime minister. The Green Revolution that powered a wheat-sugarcane economy also created fertile soil for vigorous political mobilisation. Singh won his first election to the UP Legislative Assembly from Chhaprauli in 1937, even before India became independent, and went on to win four more between 1946 and 1967. And this is where, some five-and-a-half decades later, his legacy faces its sternest test, buffeted by an assertive saffron politics seeking to remix select elements of Singh’s formula to whip up an equally potent brew, but one based on a radically different vision.

An employee of the state electricity board—who has just finished fixing a glitch in a power cable outside the mill and who identifies himself as a likely Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) voter—nods towards the group of farmers. They are from nearby villages and can provide an insight into the discussion ahead of the polling for the first phase of the Assembly election covering most of west UP, often broadly referred to as the Jat belt. It doesn’t take long to begin a conversation and a couple of farmers soon declare support for Singh’s grandson Jayant Chaudhary, who now leads the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) after the death of his father Ajit Singh. One of them, Sudhir, says BJP’s claims of development are overblown and problems regarding arrears for sugarcane payments remain unresolved. Another joins in, vehemently dismissing the saffron party as a contender, saying the cost of utilities like power has gone up and the lot of farming communities has failed to improve under BJP raj. Some four or five others in the group, listening in for a while, offer a different take. One says the supply of electricity has improved dramatically and most agree that much improved “suraksha”, or law and order, is a major reason why voters will back BJP and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. As in other parts of the large swathe of rich alluvial land that stretches from Loni on Delhi’s borders up to Saharanpur, there is a clear and strong identification of the Adityanath government with effective policing that people aver has brought “goondagardi (hooliganism and crime)” to a halt. The refrain in nearby areas, whether Muradnagar, Baghpat or Shamli, is how unsafe it was to step out after sunset and how even a crowded bazaar offered no protection from women being molested. The refrain is no different in the home borough of “Chaudhary Sa’ab” (as Charan Singh is recalled), and where his political journey began.

The reference to law and order has come to be fused with identity politics inherent in rival appeals in a charged election. It is, for BJP voters, a transparent reference to criminal elements and party bosses seen as aligned with the previous Samajwadi Party (SP) government. The BJP government’s stern actions against SP leaders like Azam Khan, Lok Sabha MP from Rampur, resonate well with this section of voters that backs BJP and Adityanath. The flipside is all about ‘stopping BJP’, with the SP-RLD alliance presenting itself as the best choice for voters like Tasleem, who sells biryani and runs a tea stall in a crowded market on Rawli Road in Muradnagar. After a brief discussion on the merits of SP and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), he makes it plain that Muslims are rallying to the Samajwadi banner: a division in votes will only make BJP’s passage easy. The sharp polarisation threatens to undermine SP-RLD’s bid to undo BJP’s winning coalition that includes upper castes, Jats and other middle castes, and a section of Dalits. Memories of ‘SP tax’ or local exactions have not faded, nor has the impression that the previous government’s political hegemony was fashioned by privileging the interests of a few, generating popular resentment and sharpening communal divisions. RLD’s Jat-Muslim alliance, sundered by the Muzzafarnagar riots in 2013, remains broken. This is a stumbling block for SP-RLD despite the readiness of a section of Jats to consider Jayant’s claims.

IN 2017, EVEN as a Modi wave swept BJP to office in UP, Chhaprauli elected an RLD candidate, albeit by a thin margin of 3,842 votes. This time round, some Jat voters do feel that a party that gave voice to the community should not be obliterated. This would be more apparent in a state poll than a Lok Sabha contest that has become a presidential affair since Prime Minister Narendra Modi became BJP’s mascot in 2014. But while there might be some dip in support, a widespread disaffection is absent, indicating that the Jat affiliation with BJP seen in two Lok Sabha and one Assembly polls may not have changed much. There are indeed complaints about price rise and a lack of employment options, and these can sound insistent. At the same time, the narrative on this count is not undifferentiated, with people also pointing to improvements in roads, regular electricity, a more responsive government apparatus and delivery of welfare measures like free rations, scholarships, and subsidies and assistance for small businesses. And though Jats are a dominant community, other parts of BJP’s coalition seem charged up.

At village Khatta Prahladpur, not far from Baghpat town, a bus ferrying people to a rally by Union Home Minister Amit Shah has just left. A would-be attendee is complaining that it left early, stranding him. Some suggest a car may be departing soon and he could get on it. A poster of Maharana Pratap hangs from a lamppost and a group of youngsters, identifying themselves as Thakurs, say that they see the election as one about “being Hindu” along with other, more conventional, reasons. Nagendra, Nirbhay, Saurav and Rajesh point to plans to improve the road connecting the village to Baghpat along with better power supply as positives. Near Surana village, a few Yadavs sit on wooden cots near a pile of sugarcane to be weighed. A fairly large crushing unit speaks of farmers with some means. An older man is not enthused about BJP, perhaps seeing a sense of kinship in SP and its leader Akhilesh Yadav. A younger man, Dharmendra, feels differently. He thinks there is progress in terms of civic amenities and that “loot” has been curbed and he is willing to consider BJP. An elderly Brahmin, also sunning himself, keeps his counsel but nods in assent to the younger man’s remarks.

Not too far away, the argument at Dheda is sharp and combative. In a group of about a dozen, there are partisans on both sides. Satpal is clear that the vote will be for RLD, his motives stemming from the need to support local boy Jayant and a litany of complaints about the state government. An RLD flag planted nearby signals his affiliation as he finds the support of a couple of others. Soon, the issue is well and truly joined and the talk becomes heated with others contending that the scoreboard is not as bare. Again, an enhanced sense of security is quoted as a major reason for general well-being. There are complaints about delays in payments related to sugarcane dues, but resonate more or less depending on political inclinations. In fact, current dues are often reported as a backlog of a couple of months and the Ramala mill saw the local administration and Member of Parliament (MP) Satyapal Singh initiate operations in November last year with some fanfare. There have been no disruptions in harvest, weighing and transport despite Covid while farmers have received the tri-yearly transfer of ₹ 2,000 under PM Kisan Samman Nidhi. In a rural economy based on multi-cropping, a lack of business connected to food processing limits options leading to a demand for government jobs and migration to nearby cities like Delhi. Interestingly enough, there is little talk of the farm laws and the agitation. It would seem the decision to scrap them has deflated the issue and it does not come across as a cause for resentment. Many people have been to the protest sites but do not reflect any activist zeal. On the other hand, the ‘tough’ approach to law and order, which includes an ‘encounter’ policy against criminals wanted for serious offences, and more recently the decision to impose costs for damages during protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), have contained typical cribs about jobs and inflation. Even on these counts, there is unhappiness but not distress that could alter voting preferences on a scale that changes the poll math. Recruitment to the armed forces, paramilitary and police is a big draw in these parts and it is common to see young men running and jogging along rural roads, huffing and puffing to ensure they meet the selection criteria. Blessed with a rugged build and a healthy rural lifestyle, many make it and provide an inspiration to others. Just as much, the success of Indian athletes in sports like javelin, shot put and wrestling is opening venues with initiatives like new sport academies and stadiums nurturing hopes of success and wealth.

LOCALS AT A CROSSING at Lalu Kheri on Shamli Road, in Cherthawal Assembly constituency, warn the road ahead could be blocked due to an RLD rally. Some of them are headed that way even as a few vehicles bearing the flag of Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad’s party go by without attracting much notice. It is a small, dusty and bustling square. A young couple alight from a car with purchases made at a nearby town and pick their way home. A clutch of women and some older men wait for a bus. A tea and samosa place is doing brisk business with the fried snack finding many takers. The tea is strong and sweet but not in a saccharine-like way. A boy manning a mobile crusher sells fresh juice and at a chemist shop Sudhir Kumar tends to customers. He is not terribly busy and is ready to chat about the election which he feels, going by what he is hearing, might favour BJP candidate Sapna Kashyap whose late husband held the seat before he succumbed to Covid. At the next shop, a younger man says Covid has hit sales but agrees that the rural economy has remained afloat despite the pandemic even though it has exacted a cost. Businesses have turned conservative and consumers are watching their pennies. People returned from cities where work was suspended. There is, however, a sense that things could be looking up. And that seems to flow from Adityanath being seen as a doer and a decisive leader. Asked whether he might be considered a “purab (east) UP” leader, they quickly refute the suggestion. “You see, this vote is for Yogi. He is the reason why people are voting BJP,” Sudhir Kumar says.

In a state where Modi has stamped his imprimatur, imposing a larger-than-life image that has put Mandal champions like SP’s father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh and a Dalit icon like Mayawati to shade, the chief minister is making a mark that can set him apart as a satrap of his own accord, something BJP has missed since the decline of the late Kalyan Singh. As Yogi Adityanath seeks to make his mark, it might also mean the fading of an older political tradition in west UP, one where an inheritor fights for redemption.

Also Read: More stories on Assembly Elections 2022

Akhilesh YadavAssembly electionElection 2022MayawatiUttar PradeshYogi Adityanath