The End of a Middle Eastern War

Late on Monday night the klaxons sounded out over Doha, the capital of Qatar. Just hours earlier, Qatar had closed its airspace to civilian air traffic even as alarm bells rang across the length of the Persian Gulf. Soon enough, Iran lobbed missiles at Qatar. A quick interception by its air defence system followed even as fears grew that this was the anticipated response by Iran against US assets in the volatile region.

In the event, it was the last shot fired by Iran.

Early on Tuesday morning, US President Donald Trump—as is his wont–announced a ceasefire on his social media account, well before Israel or Iran had said anything on the subject. The “12-Day War” had come to an end.

There is plenty that is left to parse, disentangle and analyse about these events but for now the world is breathing a sigh of relief. The more ominous consequences, such as the Iranian plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz–the constricted sea lane that is just 24 miles wide at its narrowest point—and through which the bulk of the world’s energy supplies pass, did not materialise. This was probably as important an issue as that of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

When the conflict began, there were two parties involved, Israel—which began the attacks—and Iran. By its end, the US had entered it with full force. The dispatch of B-2 bombers that traversed a huge distance from continental US all the way over Iranian skies to deliver massive munitions over the fortified and underground nuclear weapons facility at Fordow marked the coup de grace in the conflict. While the extent of the damage inflicted on the facility is not fully clear and it is speculated that Iran was able to take away a large part of its enriched Uranium, it sent an unambiguous signal to Tehran: It would not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.

That was sufficient for the clerical establishment to conclude that it could not continue for long. Iran had lost control over its airspace to Israel within days of the attack. It also lacked a viable air force: its fighter aircraft were of an ancient vintage and were taken out by Israel with ease. Iran’s excessive reliance on missile to do the heavy lifting in the war did not yield the expected results. The missile strikes inflicted considerable damage on Israel they did not change the trajectory of the conflict in Iran’s favour. The cost benefit ledger should have been drawn before the first missile was hurled at Israel but in Middle Eastern wars such calculations are seldom carried out in advance. Waging a war against a rival with which it shared no land border and one that was technologically much more superior should have given pause to Iran. It did none of that.

The US involvement in the conflict and the welter of confusing statements from Trump reflect the confused state of American politics. There is a very strong anti-war constituency in the US public in contrast to the still-strong “war party” in the country’s elite. After spending trillions of dollars in “forever wars,” Americans are exhausted. There are signs of economic strains in the US economy as well. Trump’s mercantilist inclinations are dictated to a great extent by the huge deficits and ballooning deficits being confronted by the country. If that were not enough, the President has unleashed his “Big Beautiful” spending Bill. That will only lead to a surge in debt over time, unless the tax cuts and other assorted measures pay themselves out over time.

There is plenty of disorder in the world even at the best of times but the past five years have been quite bad by recent historical standards. The end of the Israel-Iran conflict gives a much needed breather to all countries.

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