Sheikh Hasina: False Bravado

A RELATIVE CALM PREVAILS in Bangladesh since the Supreme Court pared down a 30 per cent quota for relatives of freedom fighters in the 1971 war of liberation to 5 per cent and reset the overall merit-based recruitment to government jobs to 93 per cent. The students who protested against the Sheikh Hasina government are demanding the reopening of varsities and the removal of police from campuses but street-level violence is down. The decision of a lower court restoring quotas scrapped in 2018 earlier this month sparked a furious conflagration that took the government by surprise and presented the prime minister with her sternest test to date.

The Hasina government had in fact done away with the quotas that set aside 56 per cent government jobs for categories such as descendants of freedom fighters, women and under-developed areas, but the high court decision was seen to benefit her Awami League. Her father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman led the struggle for Bangladesh’s freedom and the resistance force of Mukti Bahini that fought Pakistani troops was closely associated with him and the League. The restored quota was therefore seen to benefit the prime minister and her party. The quantum of reservations as well as the perception that government jobs offer security inflamed sentiments. The unemployment situation is seen by some as having contributed to the protests but the data is not conclusive. Some estimates peg unemployment as high as 20 per cent but World Bank data shows a declining trend with a 5 per cent rate for 2023. What is, however, apparent is that quotas have been touchy subjects since they were established in the early 1970s and need astute handling.

The prime minister’s remark, referring to protesters as “Razakars” and seeming support for the high court order might have been avoidable. The descriptor refers to Islamists like the Jamaat-e-Islami who opposed the independence of Bangladesh and collaborated with the Pakistani army in crimes against nationalists and freedom fighters. The derogatory reference is not altogether incorrect and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has allied with the Jamaat in the past, supported the protests. There were reports of protesters shouting that they were Razakars. This was a riposte to the question Hasina tossed to the media—should the grandchildren of the freedom fighters avail of the quotas or the descendants of the Razakars? The protests in Bangladesh needed deft handling and a death toll of more than 200 and arrests of thousands do not present the Hasina government in good light.

The crisis erupted not long after Hasina won a fourth consecutive term in office in January even as BNP boycotted the polls. The win has made her one of the most successful politicians in Asia. Her re-election was particularly crucial for India-Bangladesh ties as the prime minister has taken a tough line on controlling extremists and terror cells allied to Pakistan, including against those who plotted violent acts in India. She has been a responsible interlocutor in discussing the management and the return of Rohingyas displaced from Myanmar, much to India’s relief. Though a major agreement on managing the waters of the Teesta remains elusive in view of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition, India and Bangladesh have progressed on achieving closer synergy in connectivity projects that can benefit millions of their citizens and bind the countries in ties that can survive political ups and down. In a regional scenario where Myanmar is under a military junta close to China and Nepal is gripped by periodic political uncertainty, Bangladesh is an important and reliable partner under Hasina.

The protests should serve as a warning for Hasina which she can ignore only at her peril. The forces she has kept in check have not gone away. An issue like the quota controversy provides her opponents an opportunity to expand their reach beyond committed anti-Awami League voters. Often enough, politicians do not see the moment of their comeuppance. Margaret Thatcher, one of England’s most successful prime ministers, made a serious miscalculation over poll tax—a new system of local taxes that riled public opinion as it was seen to unfairly equate the less well off with richer property owners. It ended Thatcher’s career. Of course, missteps do happen, but when they do, the savvier politicians look to retrace their steps rather than persist with a bad option.

BangladeshBangladesh Nationalist PartyRazakarsSheikh HasinaSupreme Court of Bangladesh