Raj Thackeray Chooses BJP

It is about 8 at night, on the first day of the Maharashtrian New Year, Gudi Padwa and the sky above Shivaji Park in Mumbai sparkles with fireworks. Raj Thackeray has just stepped up to the microphone, appearing just min­utes ago after keeping a crowd that probably numbers close to a lakh, waiting for over two hours. Around us, the high rises of central Mumbai disappear behind a thick haze of the fireworks, as Thackeray stares into the crowd. An unreal silence now descends as the crowd waits for Thackeray to speak.

For weeks now, ever since Thackeray met Amit Shah in New Delhi, intense speculation has arisen over whether he would formally join—and with what conditions—the Mahayuti al­liance of BJP and the two factions of Shiv Sena and the Nation­alist Congress Party (NCP), even though Thackeray himself has remained mum. Behind the scenes however, according to rumours, there have been intense backroom negotiations, with Thackeray demanding at least two or three Lok Sabha seats for his support, and the other constituents of the alli­ance finding this too steep a price. According to one particular rumour, Eknath Shinde was willing to offer two seats from his kitty, provided Thackeray’s candidates contest under his party’s symbols, something that was unpalatable to him.

Thackeray has now come, in his words, to clear the air. “Come to Shivteerth [Thackeray’s residence at Shivaji Park],” Thackeray and his party posted on X before the rally. “…[I] what to tell what exactly happened, what is hap­pening. I want to talk to you directly!”

On stage, Thackeray speaks with the same bluster he is known for. There are digs at the media and his cousin Uddhav Thackeray, anger at the rumours of him and his party leaders being asked to contest on another party’s symbol, fulsome praises for Narendra Modi and BJP, an explanation about why he is switching his opinion from campaigning against BJP in 2019 to one of praises now, a direction to his party to prepare for the state elections later this year, before a declaration of unconditional support for the Mahayuti alliance for this Lok Sabha election. “Let me be clear. The last seat-sharing talk I attended was in 1995. Never after that. That’s not my temperament… then somebody said to fight on a different symbol. That’s not going to happen. There will be no compromise,” he says at one point. “The country today needs strong leadership. When I met Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde, I told them that I was not interested in seat adjustment or Rajya Sabha or council. I told them that I have decided to extend unconditional support only to make Naren­dra Modi the prime minister for another term.” In almost 30 minutes, the speech is done, hands are shaken, some pictures taken, and before one knows it, Thackeray has left and disappeared to his house across the ground.

What does Thackeray’s endorsement mean to the larger po­litical alignment that has taken shape in the state? Just earlier that day, the opposing alliance of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), featuring Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-headed NCP group, an­nounced their seat-sharing arrangement, with Uddhav’s Sena taking the larger share of 21 seats, and Congress and Pawar getting 17 and 10 seats, respectively. Although there are reports of resentment amongst the local cadre, especially in Congress which was known to be fighting hard for a few more seats, this arrangement means Uddhav’s Sena will be the one to beat in particular for the Mahayuti alli­ance. The battleground in Mumbai will particularly revolve around Uddhav’s Sena since it is contesting four out of Mumbai’s six seats. And here is where Raj, with his appeal among young urban Maharashtrians, especially in Mumbai, is expected to chip in.

Every election is crucial, but the stakes are particularly high this time in Maha­rashtra. Several parties aren’t just fighting for power but for their very future. There is Uddhav and Sharad Pawar—whose parties have suffered a split, and in the latter’s case, even his family—for whom this election is critical for its survival. It is no different in the op­posite camp, where Shinde and Ajit Pawar, leading their parties for the first time, will need to show they really do carry the lega­cies of the parties they say they have inherited. At another time, Thackeray’s earlier campaigns against North Indians in Mumbai might have made him, politically, a contentious figure for BJP to court, but in such a high-stakes election, every form of support— especially Thackeray’s—matters.

Although it appears, by Thackeray’s speech, that he won’t have his candidates contesting in this election, and will prob­ably look at fielding them in the state elections and possibly Mumbai’s Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elec­tions later this year, the stakes aren’t any less for him and his party either. He may have made a splash when he broke away from Shiv Sena back in 2006—eating into the vote share of Shiv Sena and BJP during its maiden 2009 Lok Sabha polls, especially in Mumbai, and then winning 13 seats in the 2009 state As­sembly elections—and been viewed by many, especially in his belligerent attitude and nativist politics, as the true successor of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, unlike his less quarrelsome cousin.

But since then, Thackeray’s descent has been rapid. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, all his 10 candidates faced a drub­bing, and the party’s vote share dropped from 4.1 per cent to 1.5 per cent. In the state elections later that year, all his 209 candidates, except one, lost. The next state elections weren’t any better. Only one out of his 101 candidates managed to win. (It had sat out of Lok Sabha elections that year, although he campaigned against BJP.) Its fortunes were no different in various municipal elections, with the Maharashtra Navnir­man Sena (MNS) facing drubbings everywhere, including in Mumbai where it had once won 27 seats (in 2012). In the 2017 BMC elections, it won just seven seats, and six of those winners would defect to Shiv Sena in a couple of years. Faced with these humiliations, Thackeray has been viewed as becoming increas­ingly aloof and withdrawn. A few years ago, he tried to rebrand the party, redesigning his party flag and moving beyond the ‘Marathi manoos’ politics of its initial years to also embrace Hin­dutva, but so far, these haven’t had much impact on the party’s declining fortunes. Occasionally, his party will figure in the news, demanding the abolition of collecting tolls or removing loudspeakers from mosques, but these have had little purchase.

Despite his party’s growing insignificance, Thackeray himself remains a popular figure, especially in urban areas like Mumbai. His aggressive and straight-talking ways tend to draw large crowds of disenchanted youths. In an election where so many political parties in various arrangements are in the fray, his support, it is felt, could push some urban youths, especially supporters of Uddhav’s Sena, towards the Mahayuti alliance.

By pledging unconditional support—although he made it a point to specify it is only for this election—Thackeray also ensures he remains relevant in the state’s politics. He might not have got the seats he wanted, but if his bet on the likely winner pays off, he would hope to reinvigorate his party base, and perhaps turn the tide against his party in later elections.

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