No give on ties unless border tensions resolved, India will tell Wang

The forthcoming visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi later this week has raised considerable speculation over whether it may signal a thaw and what might the possible outcomes be, given that it was the Chinese who sought the engagement.

With the military face off in the eastern Himalayas nearing two years, the most obvious question is if there might be any steps towards a resolution of the confrontation and what the terms of such a discussion can be in the midst of the global crisis over Ukraine.

The immediate point is that India will clearly tell Wang that there can be no departure from its position that there will be no restoration of normal bilateral engagement until border tensions are unresolved. A restoration of status quo as of March, 2020 is the bottomline for normalisation of ties, a message that India has consistently offered and will reiterate.

While opinion has differed over the advantages or handicaps of the two sides in the light of the Himalayan contest and the Ukraine war, it is increasingly clear that China vastly miscalculated in provoking the showdown with India. Whatever be its intent — broadly seen as a desire to show India its place — the Modi government’s response across economic and military spectrums was not anticipated by Beijing.

The likely impact of Ukraine on the India-China situation is not easy to gauge but the longer the war drags on the more hard choices Chinese leader Xi Jinping will face. So far, the commitment to stand by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, to use Wang’s words, is “rock solid”. Indeed there is strong convergence over a desire to confront the US and NATO.

But Xi also has an important date on his political calendar in the second half of this year when the 20th national party congress is to meet and, importantly for him, sanction a third term in office besides ensuring key posts for his loyalists. Xi would want the least dissonance at the time, and a militarised border is avoidable.

As for India, though the stand off saps energies and keeps the security establishment on edge, the inherent risks of two militaries being in close proximity cuts both ways.

Border disputeChinese Foreign MinisterIndia-China relationsUkraine crisisWang Yi