‘Never before has the Pak army been held in such low public esteem – not even after 1971’

Pakistan-based nuclear physicist, peace activist, author and political commentator Pervez Hoodbhoy feels that former prime minister Imran Khan’s arrest is the final outcome of the Pakistan Army’s failed experiment to create a civilian-military hybrid government with the army making all the big decisions. Hoodbhoy, whose latest book is Pakistan: Origins, Identity, and Future, says he is worried that if the army splits into pro-Khan and anti-Khan factions, it could herald a descent into civil war. An alumnus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Washington, Hoodbhoy currently teaches physics at Forman Christian College and has previously taught physics at Quaid-e-Azam University. Excerpts from an interview:

What are the likely scenarios that you expect to emerge out of this chaos that has now engulfed Pakistan? 

My prognosis: in the days ahead, the protests at Khan’s remand will damp down. The fires will be doused but the acrid smoke will linger. While the much-feared second breakup of Pakistan is not going to happen, the downward descent will accelerate as the poor starve, the rich flee the country, and cities become unliveable. Whether or not elections happen in October and Khan rises from the ashes doesn’t matter. To fix what has gone wrong in 75 years is what is important.

‘While the much-feared second breakup of Pakistan is not going to happen, the downward descent will accelerate as the poor starve, the rich flee the country, and cities become unliveable.’

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What does this arrest remind you of from Pakistan’s long experiments with democracy? Are you worried?

Imran Khan’s arrest is the final outcome of the Pakistan Army’s failed experiment to create a civilian-military hybrid government with the army making all the big decisions. A romantic relationship has ended in enduring bitterness, weakening the army in a way never seen before. Never before has the army been directly attacked or held in such low public esteem – not even after 1971.

This represents an opportunity for democratic forces. But one worries that if the army splits into pro-Khan and anti-Khan factions, it could herald a descent into civil war. For now, this does not seem imminent but one has to anticipate what may lie after October, which is when the elections are scheduled to be held.

‘Pakistan is totally polarised into supporters and opponents of Imran Khan. There are scarcely any neutrals in the army or even the judiciary.’  

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Do you think Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif would regret ordering such a dramatic arrest of Imran from the premises of the Islamabad High Court and do you think the PM was under tremendous pressure from the army to do this? 

On the contrary, I think the prime minister was fully on board and may well have suggested the arrest. Khan has been so aggressive and abusive towards all his opponents, civilian and military, that this has degenerated into a visceral zero-sum fight. Pakistan is totally polarised into supporters and opponents of Imran Khan. There are scarcely any neutrals in the army or even the judiciary.

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