Nepal: After the Uprising

For a leader who fancied his ability to outsmart and outmanoeuvre rivals,
Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli failed to read the force of the gathering storm. Typical of politicians who believe transactional arrangements and cutting deals is what it takes to remain in office, the communist leader felt the September 4 decision to ban social media like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, X and LinkedIn will prevent discontent over the venal, corrupt and pathologically inept government he headed from spreading. Official reasons apart, the real reason for the ban was a concern that the apps were amplifying rising public anger against the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist)-Nepali Congress coalition. 

Oli is not the first leader to have tried shooting the messenger. But he clearly did not anticipate the backlash as the ill-considered decision proved to be the trigger for massive street protests that swept aside the Nepalese state with ministers and leading politicians hounded and beaten in the streets by a lawless mob. There is no information about Oli’s whereabouts. Days after the violence broke out, student representatives—seen to be leaders of the “Gen Z” revolt—are in parleys with the Nepal army over an interim government to restore order till the democratic process is restored.  

There are similarities between the mobs that drove Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina out of office in Dhaka on August 5, 2024, forcing her to flee to India. The targeting of politicians aligned with CPN(UML) and the Nepali Congress is a reminder of what unfolded in Bangladesh though, mercifully, the world has been spared of public executions like those of the Awami League supporters in Dhaka. Though the youth is no doubt the spearhead of the tsunami of protests that ousted Oli and Co, the gun-wielding lumpen elements on the streets of Kathmandu are not exactly students. It is clear criminal elements are having a field day.

The sudden collapse of the state in Nepal should not surprise those who have followed events in the Himalayan nation over the past decade and more. Power sharing has been reduced to sordid dealmaking ever since elections failed to deliver clear verdicts. Older parties like the Nepali Congress lost their sheen by entering short-term arrangements with communists and smaller parties. None of their leaders command the respect of citizens. The disenchantment with established parties resulted in the communists being elected to office by a large majority in the 2017 polls that followed adoption of a new constitution in 2015. The communist factions that won were successors of the Communist Party of Nepal and by no means united in purpose and leadership.

The competition between Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” has riven the communist movement. They joined hands for a while before Oli accused Prachanda of conspiring against him. Oli conveniently dragged India into his political battles and raised a dormant dispute over the control of Lipulekh—a mountain pass near the trijunction of India, Tibet and Nepal—which has been under Indian control since Independence, to get the better of his rival. Seen as a wily and canny politician, Oli did not bat an eyelid in indulging in brinksmanship, irrespective of the damage to India-Nepal ties and the cost this imposed on Nepal’s own interests. More recently, he sewed a power sharing with the Nepali Congress to keep Prachanda and others at bay.

Oli is only the latest example  of how Nepal’s morally defunct  political class lost all credibility. Successive governments failed to work for the country’s economic and social progress and state capacity dwindled to the extent it was completely absent when violence broke out in Kathmandu last week. Instead, political parties and leaders found it useful to create diversions by raising bogeys of internal unrest and an Indian ‘hand’ rather than considering the benefits of convergence between neighbours over power generation, water management and free movement across the borders. More recently, India’s advances in digital economy could have proved beneficial to Nepal, which depends on tourism to provide livelihoods.

While the social media ban might have been intended to curb dissent, it also in one stroke hit thousands of businesses that run on applications like YouTube, Facebook and X. In the absence of state support and domestic digital capacities, social media is the means by which hotels, tour operators, exporters and other businesses conduct commerce. Banning the apps meant shutting them  down, cutting enterprises from clients and snapping vital means of communication. It speaks for how detached Oli was from ground realities that he failed to see the consequences of his actions. 

An unsettled neighbourhood is not in India’s interests.  The Modi government’s current efforts are aimed at encouraging restoration of peace and ensuring the safety of Indians in Nepal. There is also concern over a large Nepalese presence in India that includes students and workers. The discussions within the government have centred on doing everything to prevent a humanitarian crisis from developing in Nepal. This has meant that India will not offer any support to any of the factions that are slugging it out on the streets of Kathmandu and elsewhere. 

The silver lining in the events, if it can be called that, is the expected role of the Nepal army in stabilising the situation. The army is seen as a professional force and has maintained close links with the Indian military. Nepal army chief Ashok Raj Sigdel has been in touch with his Indian counterpart and the two sides are cooperating in containing the situation, which includes a close monitoring of the border with India to ensure no movement of criminal elements and illegal arms takes place. An orderly movement of people is also a matter of priority. 

In the immediate context, Indian and Nepalese interests lie in restoration of public order. An interim government, as and when it is formed, will be just that—a stop-gap arrangement. The Nepal army can be expected to oversee a free election in course of time. While all political parties suffer from a trust deficit, the communists have much to answer for. Their enthusiasm in doing away with constitutional monarchy—supported thoughtlessly by the Nepali Congress—failed to provide any egalitarian solutions. Worse, their acceptance of Chinese intervention in their internal politics amounted to foreign interference in domestic affairs, something that went down poorly in public perception.

The violent overthrow of the Oli regime will cause serious damage to Nepal’s tourism-based economy. The absence of any leader who can command confidence makes matters worse. The possibility of a populist like Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah heading the government is not encouraging. His election as an independent candidate was itself a sign of popular disenchantment with established political parties. A moderate figure like former Chief Justice Sushila Kharki might be a better choice to repair Nepal’s torn social fabric and allow the army time to bring order back to the streets and deal sternly with troublemakers.  

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