Maha Tsunami boosts BJP, JMM wins a keen contest in Jharkhand

In a dramatic turnaround from the Lok Sabha elections held less than six months back, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti scored a stunning victory in Maharashtra, crushing the Congress-Uddhav Sena-Sharad Pawar NCP alliance by winning more than 220 seats that adds up to a staggering three-fourth majority in a House of 288. At the time of publication Mahayuti was leading on 223 seats.

There was succour for the Opposition INDIA alliance in Jharkhand where pollsters had been divided with the Hemant Soren-led alliance set to return to office powered by an impressive tally that could cross 50 seats in a House of 81. It was apparent BJP’s pitch to raise infiltration of illegal migrants from Bangladesh and allegations of corruption and non-governance against the Soren government did not work. BJP did poorly in the Santhal areas and populist schemes such as the Rs 1,000 a month cash transfer to women under the Maiya Yojana helped the JMM beat incumbency.

A political Tsunami wiped out the INDIA alliance in Maharashtra where the Opposition had worsted the National Democratic Alliance by winning 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. The Mahayuti decisively wrested the mandate by re-configuring its narrative to ensure the Opposition charge that NDA will do away with reservations – something that hurt BJP in the Lok Sabha election – is comprehensively countered. A slew of welfare-populist schemes delivered cash in bank accounts to various sections of voters underlining the message that NDA is pro-poor and pro-women.

As it was in the Madhya Pradesh elections last year, when the Ladli Behena scheme worked for BJP, the Ladki Bahin payout of Rs 1,500 to eligible women was a stitch just in time. The move came to be associated with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and succeeded in turning many voters towards NDA. Progress on urban infrastructure in Mumbai was an important factor that helped retain middle class support and the set back in the city for INDIA allies is particularly alarming for the Uddhav Sena. The results may well mean the outfit might lose its traditional perch in the BMC whenever elections are held.

There was a prominent — and successful — Hindutva tone to the BJP campaign and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Ek hain to Safe hain (We are safe if we are united)” poll slogan conveyed the message of a unified response to Muslim consolidation against the BJP, a critical factor in the party’s losses in the Lok Sabha election. This time around, BJP’s voters turned out in large numbers and the sweep was across all regions, including Marathwada where the Maratha reservation agitation was expected to hurt the party.

BJP’s succeeded in neutralising Maratha anger over the quota issue – by arguing that it is in fact the only party to have delivered benefits to Kunbi Marathas – and ensuring the Other Backward Classes did not feel alienated by the agitation and concessions the Mahayuti had to make. The grassroots discussion on the Maratha community’s aggressive quota demand consolidated OBC support for the BJP alliance and reduced the potency of the challenge in Marathwada. The strong urban and rural wave in favour of Mahayuti is a riposte to Congress’s promises to conduct a caste census to deliver non-forwards there “rightful share” in the structures of politics and governance.

The arrest of Hemant Soren in a corruption case clearly generated sympathy for him, and the court comment in his bail order, which did not have any conditions as in the case of Aam Admi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal, that the evidence against him is insufficient, helped him at the hustings. Soren is now a “tribal” leader in his own right and has stepped out of the shadow of JMM founder Shibu Soren or “Dishom Guru” or “Guruji” to his followers. With a solid majority, Soren can expect to have a free hand running Jharkhand and pursuing policies that will bolster JMM’s grip on a state rich in minerals and forest resources.

The polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will add to the “feel good” BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi experienced after the Haryana win which is also where the Congress narrative began to unravel.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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