Jakarta Burning

Violent protests erupting across Indonesia took a lot of people by surprise, not least foreign investors riding one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies. But the trouble had been years in the making, only exacerbated by policies of President Prabowo Subianto. For one, Indonesia, despite 5 per cent growth, didn’t fully recover from the pandemic, with many sectoral jobs never returning and people struggling to make ends meet through gig work. Throw into that mix an insensitive decision to give parliamentarians a $3,000 housing allowance, more than the minimum wage, and one is asking for trouble. Subianto’s relief measures, including stimulus packages, suspension of planned hikes in taxes like VAT, and cash doles were not only short-term measures but were also belied by a 1,000 per cent increase in property taxes. Job losses jumped by 32 per cent this year as per official data; and 60 per cent of the workforce is now out of the formal economy.  

Yet, when protests erupted on August 25, they were peaceful. Things took a dangerous turn on August 28 when a motorcycle taxi driver was run over by an armoured police vehicle. The incident epitomised everything that was wrong in the eyes of the public. Even as women in pink with brooms took to the streets to ‘sweep’ the corrupt away, Indonesia started burning, unleashing violence not seen in the world’s third-largest democracy in a long time. Ten people had died before the government pulled back on the new perk for lawmakers and the seven police officers involved in the accident are under investigation, with one already dishonourably dismissed. After cancelling on Xi Jinping, Subianto did travel to China to witness its victory parade.

Even as things calm down, the underbelly of this Asian success story lies exposed. Quick fixes won’t do the trick. The rupiah slid 1 per cent and Indonesia’s credit ratings could still take a hit. The president doesn’t seem to have noticed that people aren’t really interested in his free school lunch programme.   ( By Sudeep Paul)

Ideas
Vaccine Scepticism

In a move that has caused much concern for public health, Florida is set to become the first state in the US to end all vaccine requirements. Currently, schoolchildren in Florida, like those in other US states, are required to be vaccinated for certain infectious diseases. But the new rule removes this requirement. During the announcement of the change of rules, Florida’s Surgeon General Dr Joseph Ladapo likened the mandates to “slavery”.  “Who am I to tell you what your child should put in their body? Your body is a gift from God… Every last one of them [vaccine mandates] is wrong and drips with disdain and slavery,” he said.

The Trump administration, especially under the US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr who is a known vaccine-sceptic, has however mobilised and politicised this issue. It initially began as a crusade against Covid-19 vaccines, but it is now beginning to ensnare other vaccines too. 

The new announcement has alarmed health experts. Mandates for immunisation against infectious diseases like measles, mumps and rubella; chickenpox; Hepatitis B; and others are believed to be critical in eliminating disease outbreaks. The new decision is of course political. Vaccine scepticism is said to be on the rise in the US, especially on the right. A lot of that arose as a response to strict mandates imposed during the pandemic. But whether the scepticism towards Covid-19 vaccines will extend to all other vaccines, which have been around and helped eliminate many diseases, is of course another matter.  

Newsmaker
K Kavitha: The Outcast

K Kavitha’s suspension from the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) feels less like a rupture than the culmination of her waning importance within Telangana’s first family over several months. Daughter of K Chandrashekar Rao, former chief minister and architect of Telangana’s statehood, she once commanded respect in party rank and among legislators. But now, that same lineage has become her undoing.

On September 2, BRS announced that it was suspending her for what it termed “anti party activities” after she publicly attacked cousins T Harish Rao and Joginapally Santosh Rao, accusing them of corruption linked to the troubled Kaleshwaram project and of colluding with the Congress establishment. The next day, she resigned from the party, from her MLC seat, and perhaps, from a destiny that had seemed predestined by blood. At a press meet, she fought back tears and scorned the betrayal: “Today it is me, tomorrow it will be KTR [her brother KT Rama Rao].” 

Her six page letter, leaked earlier in May, had already laid bare her disillusionment with the party, but accusing KCR of being too soft, too inaccessible, and too late in defending the “devils” closest to him cost her everything. She had once been the party’s cultural emissary, the face of Telangana Jagruthi, a Lok Sabha MP with an assured place in the dynasty. After months of legal entanglements and imprisonment in the Delhi liquor case, when she returned to the party, the ground beneath her feet had already shifted. Whether her ouster marks the quiet end of her career or the first step to an independent path, it has ensured that her name will no longer be read only in the shadow of her father. ( By V Shoba)

  Noisemaker
Mallikarjun Kharge

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s bid to claim that the Goods and Services Tax reforms were the party’s brainchild rings hollow. In fact, Congress has led a trenchant political attack on GST despite its state governments being party to hundreds of decisions by the tax governing council. Further, if a rival implements your idea, it’s not useful to cry copyright. Remember Aadhaar?

Money Mantra
Where Policy Meets Profit
The next decade of Indian equity returns

Investing is about the future. And over the next decade, Indian equity returns are likely to be concentrated in a few policy-accelerated corridors.

When the state rewires incentives—be it through procurement priorities, capex, standards, or subsidies—the earnings power of entire value chains can shift. 

The investing edge, then, will come from reading the gazettes and programme memos like a project manager: Where is the money flowing? What bottleneck is being relieved? And which suppliers will become price-setters as rules change?

Energy is the first structural seam. New transmission plans built specifically to absorb a step-up in renewable capacity indicate the government’s intent to push non-fossil generation to 500GW by 2030. That creates a five-to-ten-year runway for grid EPCs, towers and conductors, transformers, high-voltage equipment, utility software, and storage integrators. Add to this the National Green Hydrogen Mission’s production and demand-creation schemes, and you get a second derivative theme across electrolyser OEMs, green ammonia handling, and port logistics. 

Defence and aerospace are the second seam. The “positive indigenisation” lists have steadily expanded the set of platforms, sub-systems, and munitions that must be sourced domestically. This creates opportunity for Tier 2 and 3 vendors in sensors, composites, propulsion components, harnesses and machining. 

Third, electronics and semiconductors are shifting from aspiration to anchored incentives. The India Semiconductor Mission provides up to 50 per cent fiscal support for fabs and display lines, with additional approvals in 2025 extending the pipeline. 

So, how should you act: Don’t chase every press conference; map policies to cash flows. Prioritise businesses whose addressable market expands because a bottleneck is removed (grid, logistics), whose pricing power rises due to localisation (defence, APIs), or whose unit economics structurally improves on new rails (DPI). 

In a market that will always have noise, policy clarity is your compass; over the next five to 10 years, it’s where the compounding lives.  (By Ramesh Singh)

Viral
Happy Ending of a Hat-Snatching Scandal

As the Polish player Kamil Majchrzak was making his way out of court after defeating his Russian opponent Karen Khachanov at the US Open, he stopped to sign a few autographs and gift memorabilia to the fans gathered. It’s a common enough moment, with fans crowding the rails and doing their best to draw the players’ attention. In a video that went viral rapidly online, Majchrzak can be seen participating in this ritual, when he passes on his hat to a young fan who seemed he could not believe his luck, only for a much older man standing nearby to swoop in and snatch the hat away. The man named Piotr Szczerek eventually had to issue an apology and is believed to have returned the hat to the young fan. As luck would have it, even Majchrzak learned of the incident, and invited the young fan to meet him, where he gifted him a bunch of memorabilia, including a new hat. 

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