China Can’t Turn off Brahmaputra’s Tap: Assam CM

Ever since India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan after holding it responsible for the Pahalgam terror attacks, there was the question of whether this opens the door for China to do the same with the Brahmaputra, whose upstream is in their territory. Pakistan has been touting this possibility to its people. Like Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a close aide of Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, saying that India was setting a precedent for China.

On June 2, Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma put up a long post on the social media platform X dispelling any such equivalence. It was titled ‘What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India? A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare Narrative’. He termed it a myth and argued that the Brahmaputra might originate in China but it takes its real size in India and therefore China’s ability to reduce its waters is very limited. China only contributes 30 to 35 per cent of the total flow while the rest is from within India itself. And he gave a breakdown of how that happens. He wrote: ‘The remaining 65–70% is generated within India, thanks to:  Torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya; Major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili;  Additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi. At the Indo-China border (Tuting): Flow is ~2,000–3,000 m³/s. In Assam plains (e.g., Guwahati): Flow swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s during monsoon.’

in short, India is not dependent on the upstream of the Brahmaputra. And even if China reduces the flow, it might actually be good because it would decrease the annual flooding that happens in Assam causing destruction. And then there is also the fact that China itself has never explicitly threatened to make the Brahmaputra’s flow an issue.

AssamBrahmaputraHimanta Biswa SarmaIndia-China relationsNews BriefWeb Exclusive