Bucking History

TWO OPINION POLLS, the Times Now-C-Voter one that came out recently, and Asianet-CFore in late February, have predicted that the Left Democratic Front will return to power in Kerala with a majority. That would be extraordinary in a state where two alliances have, with clockwork regularity, changed the reins in every election since the late 1970s. Voters in Kerala might have been clever in keeping their politicians unsettled, but are deciding otherwise now.

The primary reason is the decline in Congress, which is part of a larger national phenomenon. Just a couple of days ago, the party got a shock when one of its main state leaders, PC Chacko, left with bitter words. He lamented on the absence of democracy and factions ruining the state organisation. This might be the peeve of someone side-lined, but you have to contrast it with what someone side-lined would do in earlier elections. Coming to power is a good glue in keeping people together.

The face that Congress relies upon in Kerala is now Rahul Gandhi. His contesting from Wayanad in the General Election had the effect of them winning almost all Parliamentary seats in the state. But, just as the Narendra Modi effect does not always translate into state elections, the Gandhi factor is not a guarantee for repeat miracles. He is also the youngest face Congress has in a state where the leadership comprises ageing veterans who, by virtue of the very fact that voters always chose a different party, put faith in destiny. If all one had to do was wait to win, then why bother fixing anything—you could just leave it to the eventual order from chaos that emerges after the victory.

But, if the polls are true, then this is the god of politics signalling no trend lasts forever. And then there are many potential futures. BJP does not have enough grassroots organisation to be a viable contender for power, but it is inching ahead slowly and with deliberation. A lot of the votes that leave Congress, end up with them. And as West Bengal showed with the overnight decimation of the left, that once the limited pool that makes for political workers see the omens, ideology is inconsequential. They just take their wagon and hitch it to the train that is going to the promised land.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will be feeling sanguine. He has been bedevilled with crises ever since taking office, from historic floods to the fallout of the Supreme Court judgment allowing entry of women of all ages into Sabarimala. He turned many of them into opportunities, mobilising public support, and also giving vast amounts of free relief materials that always sit well with voters.

And for an ideology that has long lost steam, he has kept Kerala going as the last outpost of the communists.

Assembly Elections 2021KeralaLeft politicsPinarayi Vijayan