Not Even the Consolation of Baked Alaska

THE ERA OF WAR MAY NOT BE OVER JUST YET. The summitry in Alaska, the show of transatlantic unity in Washington and the frantic phone parleys were important steps forward but many more are necessary before any prospect of peace becomes greater than a collective hallucination and the Russia-Ukraine war comes to a definite end.

Team Europe, worried that President Donald Trump had crossed over to the ‘dark side’ after his three-hour meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, rushed to the White House to say its piece—ceasefire first, agreement later. Putin had reversed the sequence in Trump’s mind. The leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany, Britain, Fin­land, Italy, NATO, and the European Commission gathered on short notice, played as one, took a group photograph and paid homage to Trump for getting them to a point from where peace is vaguely visible.

Alas, for New Delhi, there was no baked Alaska—the sword of additional 25 per cent tariffs for buying Russian oil still hangs. If the original goal was to squeeze India to increase pressure on Russia to come to the table, it was achieved. Why not sheathe the sword? Perhaps the threat of extra tariffs serves other undefined US objectives vis-à-vis India. The positive vibes between Trump and Putin did not extend as far as Delhi to douse the diplomatic and political fires. Well-wishers in Washington are mourning the needless sacrifice of US-India relations at the altar of whatever goes in the name of the Great Game these days.

The Europeans, trying to play the game on the same side as the Americans, staged an emergency family intervention, spooked as they were by the red-carpet optics in Anchorage. Trump had welcomed Putin warmly, given him applause and a ride in The Beast. With all the smiles and handshakes, the political theatre of menacing B-52 bombers flying overhead and F-22s standing poker-faced below seemed more attendant pageantry than a show of power.

It was time to abandon the August break, don the suits and fly over—Presi­dent Volodymyr Zelensky was advised to be sartorially wise and ‘thankful’ in the presence of Trump. Zelensky was both, avoiding a repeat of the last time when he was literally shunted out of the White House after an acrimonious public encounter. Trump had told him he had “no cards” to play.

Zelensky still does not, but this time he was received with warmth. It is an­other matter that the US president can change his view of the warring countries on a whim. In the current window of opportunity, Trump seems well inclined towards both Putin and Zelensky and eager to forge/force a peace agreement. The quest for a Nobel peace prize is obvious and if the Norwegians want to make a real contribution, they should set the ball rolling.

On a more serious note, as things stand, Zelensky and Putin are expected to meet in the next two weeks at a venue yet to be decided. Budapest is an option although Switzerland is desperately pitching Geneva, hoping its hospitality can ease the high Trump tariffs. If all goes well, the first meeting might be followed by a trilateral with Trump. While the Kremlin has not committed to third-party mediation, Zelensky publicly requested the US president to attend. The diplomatic dance is on with all parties assessing each other’s moves while maintaining commitment phobia.

THE TWO BIG ISSUES

The two main issues at the heart of the matter are difficult questions about secu­rity guarantees for Ukraine and territorial concessions by Kyiv. Putin apparently showed openness to some manner of security guarantees but whether he would agree to troops from NATO countries on Ukrai­nian soil is unclear. One of the main causes of the war was Russia’s anger at Europe openly flirting with the idea of offering NATO membership to Ukraine and bringing the Western military alliance to the borders of Russia.

On the question of security guarantees for Ukraine, Trump said the idea of European “boots on the ground” was not going to be a problem for Putin. Call them by another name—Reassurance Force—as the British have suggested. Would that satisfy Putin who is allergic to any sound or sight of NATO and prefers UN peacekeepers? Trump has ruled out sending American troops but he was open to providing intelligence and other support. “Europe is the first line of defence but we will help them out,” he said.

European leaders also talked about “Article 5-like” NATO protections for Ukraine during their visit. The part of Article 5 cited most says: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an  attack against them all….” But the second half of the article is more interesting—it gives the parties an option to do very little if they so choose. It says each NATO member will take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force to restore security of the North Atlantic area.” A country can mere­ly express distress and be done or it can send troops. American lawyers helped draft the language and kept exit routes open.

As for territorial concessions, Russia is demanding what a former ambassador termed “occupation plus”—Putin not only wants areas already under his control but the entire Donbas region along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukrainian forces control around 20 to 30 per cent of Donbas which Zelensky is unwilling to simply give away. But Nandan Unnikrishnan, a respected Russia analyst with ORF, said, “Even Putin has to sell the war to his people. He has to make it look like a victory after so much death and destruction. He has to show gains.”

Perhaps the logic worked with Trump when he met Putin— he understood that Russia can continue this war of attrition and Ukraine cannot. Trump is willing to sell arms to Europe and they can keep at it but he does not want to stay involved if the talks do not move at a pace he likes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned Europeans in the past that if a peace agreement was not “doable in the short term… then I think we are just going to move on” because there are “a lot of things go­ing on in the world right now that we need to be focused on.”

THE MANY GAMES BIG POWERS PLAY

The churn of events is not easy to untangle because multiple compulsions and interests are at work. In the great power com­petition of the big three—the US, Russia and China—each leg of the triangle may be working against the other while giving the opposite impression. The end goal for the US is to preserve its primacy, for Russia to grab more geopolitical space and re­gain stature so it does not have to declare war to be relevant, and for China to sideline both and rule supreme into the future.

Trump by his own admission is trying to drive a wedge between Russia and China by courting Putin and resisting the entrenched anti-Russia mindset at home. He believes the US should never have alienated Russia to the extent it did, thus driving Moscow closer to Beijing. Trump called Russia “a big power… No 2 in the world”—as Putin stood next to him in Anchorage. The Russian president, too, laid it on thick when he uttered the words Trump most wanted to hear—the Ukraine war would not have started had he been in the White House.

The mutual stroking does not necessarily mean that either wants to lose ground to the other in the bigger game. Trump does not want to help Russia become more powerful in the Indo-Pacific or in its near abroad. Take the example of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace declaration signed in the White House on August 8. It includes something called the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” or the TRIPP cor­ridor located on Armenia’s border with Iran. The professed idea is to better connect the two countries to shipping and energy networks overseen by America’s friends. Azerbaijan is rich in natural gas and the potential for lucrative deals is high.

It is a bold American play in the South Caucasus, long con­sidered Russia’s backyard. But Moscow has been busy warring in Ukraine and unable to mind all its stores. Armenians feel that Russia failed as a security guarantor in the 2023 war when Azerbaijan wrested back control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The region was ripe for the picking as Trump’s deal makers were hungrily scouting around. Billionaire Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Türkiye, is working on the US signing a 100-year lease on the TRIPP corridor while helping Türkiye become the new regional power in the South Caucasus.

None of this is helpful from India’s point of view or Russia’s. Türkiye is hostile to New Delhi and any decline in Russian influence in the region does not augur well. But India is not at the table or even in the room and may continue to be collateral damage in the multiple, simultaneous and fast-moving plays.

WHAT ABOUT INDIA?

While Trump basks in the glory of being a “peacemaker”, the India relationship burns in the background with new kindling thrown into the fire on a daily basis. Purchase of Russian oil is the latest lightning rod—White House resident tariff crusader Peter Navarro and Senator Lindsey Graham have used the most incendiary language to denounce India for buying cheap oil. They do not mention China, the largest buyer, or Türkiye, the third largest. As for the European Union (EU), last year the group imported $41.9 billion of natural gas, iron, steel, fertiliser, and nickel from Russia.

You can cry hypocrisy and vent but the stark truth is that China has tremendous leverage and India does not. Beijing’s monopoly hold on critical minerals and rare earth materials is but one example of US dependence on Chinese imports. In addition, Trump wants a trade deal with China followed by a victory tour to Beijing. He has already done a deal with the EU, the other consumer of Russian exports.

The main problem? India “does not figure in the top 5 partners of the US in the Indo-Pacific, which itself is 3rd (in) priority after Europe and the Middle East,” Kunal Singh, a research scholar at the Belfer Center, recently wrote on X. “If the US needs to put pressure on Russia, targeting China & India makes sense. Since the US relies much more on Chinese imports, targeting India is easier.” And the political cost is low, one might add.

As US-India relations deteriorate, Delhi is reaching out to foes and friends alike, from China to Russia to Brazil and others to cover the hurt and humiliation doled out by Trump & Co. It is hard to imagine a return to warmer days anytime soon—too much has been said and done over the past months.

More may come. Sentiment is building on Capitol Hill to provide extra leverage to Trump through legislation calling for 500 per cent tariffs on goods from countries that buy Rus­sian oil. The bill proposed by Graham, a Republican, and Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat, has 85 co-sponsors and will likely pass if the White House gives the go-ahead. So far, nego­tiations with Russia have kept the bill in abeyance under orders from Trump. If Putin plays hardball as many in Washington fear he might, US officials say they would have no choice but to impose further sanctions on Moscow and its friends.

Hard times could get harder.

Alaska meetLindsey GrahamNATOPeter NavarroRussia-UkraineRussian oilTrump-Putin meet