Youth Power Won’t Wither Away

It is a tale of two trends. Since 2018, democracy in Nepal has been backsliding. Elected governments were more intent on maintaining political control over society, curtailing freedoms and persecuting political opponents rather than on delivering economic growth and strengthening democratic institutions.

Then in July 2024, when the two largest parties in the parliament, differing in ideology but united by self-interest, forged a power-sharing agreement, things took a turn for the worse.

For the last two decades, Nepal has been stuck in what experts call a “low growth, high migration” trap. Nepal’s average growth rate in the last two decades has hovered around 4 per cent. The low growth has led to insufficient jobs, forcing youth to migrate abroad while dampening the demand for political and economic reforms. As of now, remittance constitutes more than 25 per cent of GDP, shoring up an economy strained by misrule.

A related trend was growing public discontent generated by perceived corruption, impunity from accountability and youth migration. Public discontent soared when people saw the lavish lifestyle of the “nepo kids”, who were flaunting their wealth on social media. Inspired by events in Indonesia, social media users in Nepal started a campaign against the nepo kids on TikTok.

On the other side, leaders of the ruling regime were increasingly infuriated by the constant criticism on social media and the government’s inability to curb it. The government had been trying for some time to register social media platforms in Nepal so as to monitor and censor them. 

According to people with direct knowledge of the facts, then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s action was finally triggered by a letter sent by X to the Nepal government. In response to the Nepal government’s request to register, X had apparently refused, terming Nepal a “corrupt” country. Oli took it as an affront to Nepal’s “sovereignty” and imposed a blanket ban on 26 social media sites that refused to register.

This became the final straw.

Gen Z, already fed up with the corruption and arrogance of the rulers and the lack of employment, felt it was too much. On Monday, September 8, they decided to hit the streets.

Exit Government

A series of events led the protesters towards a convention centre converted into the parliament building where the police shot 19 people, hitting many of them in the head and chest. It was one of the most heartbreaking moments in Nepali history. By evening, when the news spread, the regime became more entrenched while the rest of Nepal united in sadness and anger.

Yet, nobody could foresee the explosion of discontent and the anarchic turn of events that would topple a powerful government in less than two days. By Monday evening, change was imminent as Nepal came together in a manner rarely seen before, but very few could foresee a swift and decisive change in government leading to the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the dramatic reshaping of the nation’s political landscape.

During the protests, severe differences emerged between security agencies and the ruling coalition. While the army acknowledged the true nature of a spontaneous people’s movement and refused to shoot its own people, the government thought the security agencies did not do enough to suppress the demonstrations and protect the government.

The protests, a culmination of long-simmering public discontent, aggravated by government overreach and corruption, demonstrated that state institutions had been hollowed out by misrule. Two days of protests brought down the house of cards.

Interim Government

The key question that emerged in the aftermath of the demonstrations and deaths of more than 72 individuals, was how to reconcile the aspirations of Gen Z while protecting the existing constitution. Nepal has already lost almost 20 years in Maoist conflict and post-conflict transition and it does not make sense to enter another phase of political instability.

Another question, one that remains unanswered, is how to reform mainstream political parties which have deviated from the democratic path. It seems almost incomprehensible that the parties were so completely unable to fathom the aspirations of the youth.

It was largely happenstance that former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Sushila Karki, turned out to be the person to bridge the gap between the state that had failed its people and a people who had risen in revolt.

In the public eye, Karki has been a crusader for justice and the rule of law, a vocal critic of the established political parties and their kleptocratic ways. It was thus with a willing heart that the youth chose her as their representative to push for change.

Karki is leading an interim government trying to forge an apparatus for political transition as well as political and economic reforms. Not only is she intent on delivering elections by March 7, a deadline set by the constitution, she is also keen on punishing those guilty of killing and maiming civilians and taking action against the corrupt. In the process, she needs to ensure mainstream political parties take part in the elections.

Challenges of Transition

Following the swift, youth-led revolution, Nepal is going through a fragile and uncertain political transition. The new interim government faces significant challenges as deep-seated institutional and political factors could derail the transition. 

The future depends on two key factors: the internal state capacity and the external environment. While internally the quality of the cabinet of ministers, the Election Commission, security agencies, bureaucracy, and the availability of resources matter, the external environment is much more diverse. This ranges from the potential role of the main political actors to public discontent, from the state of the economy to geopolitics.

Nepal’s bureaucratic capability is poor and the recent protests have weakened it further. The Election Commission is filled with loyalists of major political parties. The government’s ability to maintain peace and security will be tested in the coming days, especially in view of the weakened capacity and morale of security agencies and the likelihood of future protests by the opposition. 

Two days of protests left the Nepal Police in tatters, battered the force’s morale and public trust in it. Thousands of prisoners have escaped. The interim government is also strained for resources and, given the damage, may struggle to finance the rebuilding and elections.

The largest parties, unceremoniously ejected from power overnight by the people, are regrouping. The unhealthy linkages between politics, power and money make this a high-stakes game. In such a scenario we are sure to see heightened political tensions. Throw in extremists, monarchists and leftists, and we have a highly volatile political landscape. 

A careful analysis of these factors indicates Nepal will struggle to transition. The stagnant economy, a primary factor in people’s discontent, will remain weak for the next six months, adding to the discontent. The overall health and stability of the national economy was already under stress and the current instability could further depress it.

The government enjoys widespread support from the public and this is evident on social media platforms too. But this support may not be sustained in the future. The media, similarly, is giving the benefit of the doubt to the new setup, but they may begin to grow more critical as the days go by, especially since many are closely linked to established political forces. Though a majority of the public appears to support the current political transition, voices of dissent are likely to increase. Public support for the interim government could wane in the coming days.

The selection of the cabinet shows the ministers have the capability to govern effectively and take sound decisions. The recognition and support of the international community is another positive factor. There is also hope that the capability of the Nepal Police and the Armed Police Force will improve, preventing a complete collapse of order and marginally improving the security situation. However, they will struggle to contain unrest. The only positive in this situation is that Prime Minister Karki is selecting highly capable individuals as cabinet ministers.

Elections might be held, but the process will be fraught and subject to various pressures. Political parties ousted from power will question the fairness of the election and the public may also find some aspects difficult to accept. The role of the Election Commission will be critical, especially as its code of conduct will also govern the interim government. Despite the chaos, it is the only functional body capable of moving the country towards elections. 

The Road Ahead

There is a strong possibility that Nepal’s political landscape will continue to remain deeply fragmented even after the elections. Nepal is likely to avoid outright collapse, but the transition will be bumpy and uncertain.

Even if Nepal manages to hold elections successfully, the future political course is still uncertain. At the moment, new political forces are unorganised, youth voices are still coming to terms with their ideological divisions, and many new voters are unregistered.

If elections were held today, we are likely to have mixed results. Monarchists and supporters of a Hindu state remain a significant force, though their actual support among votes is unmeasured. If a well-organised new party emerged, it could get a substantial share of seats in parliament. But the old parties cannot be discounted: they still have substantial support throughout Nepal. 

It is difficult to guess who can assume leadership after elections. There is still a possibility that leftist forces will continue with their old leaders while the Nepali Congress could switch to a new face. The prospect of reform and change in the old parties is unclear, and it will take some time before a new generation can have a say in these outfits.

Despite all the challenges, Nepal does not have the luxury of failing. Improving the chances of Nepal’s successful transition depends on ensuring government resilience, containing unrest, limiting polarisation, and re-engaging the public. To improve the chances of success, Nepal must leverage positives through governance resilience. We need continued and strong international backing through financial and technical aid, which can boost the availability of resources and capability of the Election Commission.

Only an effective Election Commission can build public confidence and pressure political parties towards compliance. Similarly, even slightly improved policing could stabilise law and order if it is strategically deployed and is supported by community engagement or political dialogue. If things continue to worsen, we might arrive at a situation where international actors and civil society might need to play a more active role.

If the situation worsens and the government is unable to tackle the challenges, there is a possibility that Nepal could spiral out of control, entering a phase of high instability and governance failure.

Nepal is now at a critical and volatile crossroads where it needs to halt political decay and contain public discontent and acknowledge the power of the youth. The transition will be fragile and the future is tense. So, for the new government, it all boils down to one thing: setting the foundations for a new beginning, one that can reverse the trends of the last two decades. 

Given Nepal’s history, it will be a difficult task.  

aspirationscorruptionGen ZNepal politicsNepal unrestsocial mediayouth