The Peace Deal

NINETY-FOUR IS THE NEW COUNT OF HOSTAGES held by Hamas. Of these, about 50 are believed to still be alive. To date, Hamas has not provided a status list of the hostages in its custody for the past 15 months. Tragically, it is estimated that the two red-haired children among the hostages are no longer alive. US President Donald Trump has entered the White House only on Monday, January 20, but the very clear warning that he had sent to Hamas in Gaza immediately after the election of November 5 had reached the ears of its leaders. The message was very typical of Trump: “All hell will break out if Israeli hostages are not released before my inauguration.” The message had also reached Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu faced a critical decision: to side with his far-right allies in the Knesset who opposed the pact, or to align with Trump. In the end, Trump’s influence prevailed. His ultimatum to Hamas—and perhaps to Netanyahu as well—proved effective. The truce was signed before January 20. The first phase of a more comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release agreement began just one day before the inauguration. Three young female hostag­es—Romi, Doron, and Emily—were freed from the clutches of Hamas. These three were the first of 33 hostages scheduled to be released within the next 42 days. When viewing the broadcast of the release, the hostages were seen carrying bags gifted by Hamas. Inside these bags, it was evident that Hamas treated the release as if it were a graduation ceremony. The three girls received ‘Gradu­ation Certificates’—documents titled as release-from-captivity certificates that included their names, the time and place of their abduction, and even photographs taken during their captivity. The irony of such a gesture, given the horrific circumstances, could not be more striking.

While Trump takes credit for the truce, the significant efforts of the team appointed by Joe Biden, who worked for months to craft the agreement’s modalities, should not be overlooked. Even before officially entering the Oval Office, Trump had appointed his close friend Steve Witkoff, a Jewish real estate investor, as his envoy to the Middle East and the ceasefire talks. Witkoff ar­rived in Israel almost unannounced and went directly to meet Netanyahu. During their meeting, he emphasised that the truce needed to be signed before the inauguration. Within hours, Netanyahu had dispatched the head of Mossad and the head of the General Security Services (Shin Bet) to the negotiations in Qatar, granting them full authority to finalise the deal.

Trump had invited hostage survivors and the families of hostages with dual Israeli-American citizenship to his inaugu­ration. While he remains dedicated to securing the release of all hostages, Trump’s commitment to American citizens holds particular significance.

If this truce is successfully implemented and leads to a full ceasefire, Trump could emerge as a strong contender for the Nobel Peace Prize. While he has not explicitly stated it, it is evident that he has his sights set on the honour. The Middle East conflict has long served as fertile ground for Nobel Peace Prizes, from Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1978 to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and former President Shimon Peres, who were awarded the prize in 1994. If the Middle East does not serve this purpose, Trump could set his sights on the Russia-Ukraine war instead.

Trump’s support for Israel was unmistakable in his first term. He relocated the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, making a bold statement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel— something no other country had done before. Following this move, several nations, including Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay and Kosovo, followed suit. Additionally, Trump recognised Israel’s sov­ereignty over the Golan Heights in northern Israel. In his honour, a village in the Golan Heights was named ‘Trump Heights’.

The new Trump administration is strongly pro-Israel. The appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, has been highly active in the congressional hearings targeting university deans for their failure to combat anti-Semitism and anti-Israel protests on Ivy League campuses such as Harvard and MIT. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has issued bold statements holding Hamas accountable for the dire conditions in Gaza, and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz declared this week that the US will not allow Hamas to maintain control over Gaza.

One of Israel’s key expectations from a second Trump adminis­tration is the continuation of the Abraham Accords. In his first term, Trump had played a pivotal role in facilitating the normalisation agreements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. A draft agree­ment for normalisation with Saudi Arabia was already in place before the October 7, 2023 attack. It was halted due to the war. With Trump’s return and the strong ties the US has forged with Saudi Arabia, Israel is eager to normalise relations with the kingdom. There isalsohopefordevelopingrelationswithQatar, whichplayedacru­cial role in facilitating the current truce. This week in Davos, Israeli PresidentIsaacHerzogmet Qatar’sPrime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to thank him for his support in reaching the truce, signalling the potential for further diplomatic progress.

The terms of the truce include the release of Pal­estinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons—many of whom were involved in terrorist attacks over the last 20 years. In Israel, these individuals are referred to as having “blood on their hands”. In 2011, Israeli sol­dier Gilad Shalit, who had been held by Hamas, was released in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian pris­oners. Among them was Yahya Sinwar, who later became the mastermind of the October 7 massacre. Moreover, it was found that approximately 80 per cent of released Palestinian prisoners returned to terrorism after their release. The far-right parties, led by former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have urged the government not to release the prisoners and to continue the fight until what they call “Total Victory”, a term originally coined by Netanyahu but later adopted by them. However, these parties have other unhidden agendas. They believe in the vision of a ‘Greater Israel’, which includes not only the West Bank but also the Gaza Strip. This vision, which diverges from the government’s current stance, adds complexity to their position in the ongoing conflict.

Another problematic aspect of the truce is the increase in hu­manitarian aid to Gaza. On the surface, humanitarian aid seems beneficial, as long as it reaches the people in need. However, the problem lies in how these truckloads of food and supplies are being used. Rather than reaching the Gazan population, Hamas has been exploiting this aid, selling it at inflated prices and using the proceeds to fund its military plans. This misuse of aid only strengthens Hamas’ hold on power while doing little to alleviate the suffering of the general population.

The approval of the truce within the Israeli government was a dramatic one. According to Jewish law, Jews are prohibited from working from sunset on Friday until sunset on Saturday, a period known as Shabbat. However, an exception is made when lives are at stake. Last Friday, January 17, with the lives of the hostages in jeopardy, the government held an extended meeting that stretched into Shabbat. The far-right ministers who opposed to the truce resigned in protest. On the Israeli street, it was said that Netanyahu, too, was held hostage by his far-right allies—and was released from those fanatics, along with the hostages.

Donald TrumpIsrael-HamasIsrael-Palestine conflictMiddle EastNoa ArgamaniUS president