The Nowhere Alliance

SINCE THE INDIAN National Developmen­tal Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) was crudely stitched together in July 2023, it has been obvi­ous that its ideologically variegated constitu­ents had no common ground. To be fair to them, none of them ever made any such tall claims and there was not even an effort from any partner to establish any semblance of political compatibility while they vied with one another in one-upmanship. Even diehard I.N.D.I.A. fans within and without could not deny that they had nothing to align about except for their dislike of Narendra Modi, personally and politi­cally. Which explains why, when it came to political expedien­cy, its architect and then convenor-in-chief of sorts, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, decided to snap ties, and realign with the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in February this year, stating that he had roamed “idhar udhar (here and there)” but had finally returned to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Cobbled together to fight the 2024 General Election and proj­ect themselves as a counterweight to the BJP alliance, I.N.D.I.A. has however held not a single meeting following the polls whose outcome was announced on June 4. This alone buttresses the argument against this combine which was at best adventurist if not opportunistic. In the absence of any cohesion or a common mini­mum programme, it ended up being a rainbow group longing for the spoils of office alone after being out of power for over a decade.

Over the past six months, this bloc of strange bedfellows has remained more dormant than it was slothful as it fought crucial elections, first in Jammu & Kashmir and then Haryana in October and now in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. All these elections proved to be a rejection of the slogans of Congress whose campaigns were steered by the leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi. In Jharkhand and J&K, the wins of I.N.D.I.A. were thanks exclusively to local players. Omar Abdullah, current chief minister of J&K and National Conference (NC) leader said that “NC would have won the seats without Congress, even Congress seats”.

The rout for Congress and I.N.D.I.A., especially in Haryana and Maharashtra, was proof that the issues raised by Rahul Gandhi and his men as high-wattage election rhetoric to checkmate the ruling front at the Centre turned out to be a damp squib as they repeatedly refused to click.

Take, for instance, the case of the Congress scion’s outbursts against the Agnipath scheme first introduced by the Modi govern­ment in 2022 promising short-term contracts for Agniveers, the new personnel who would serve on contract in the armed forces which are struggling to cut pension expenses. During rallies in Haryana, where Congress was destined to face a resounding drub­bing, Rahul Gandhi had criticised BJP for rolling out the Agnipath scheme, which he said would adversely affect pensioners among those recruited. As luck would have it, Gandhi Jr’s agenda got busted in a state that is the second-largest hub in the country. All prophecies of youth discontent in the state over the issue and pronouncements that the prime minister was out to “finish off” the Army ended up as glib talk without takers as 2024 threw up a historic victory for BJP in Haryana.

In April, Rahul Gandhi had posted on X that the Agnipath scheme was an insult to the Army and the brave youth who dream of protecting the country: “This is not a plan of the Indian Army but a plan made in Narendra Modi’s office which has been imposed on the Army. Martyrs cannot be treated differently, every person who makes the supreme sacrifice for the country should be given the status of a martyr. As soon as the Indian government is formed, we will immediately cancel this scheme and re-imple­ment the old permanent recruitment process.” Rahul Gandhi had promptly received support from fellow Congress leaders who came up with theories of law enforcement getting handcuffed thanks to the Centre’s priorities.

In hindsight, it is clear why there were differences of opinion within I.N.D.I.A. on a raft of issues even as Rahul Gandhi made state­ments as if on a whim about multiple subjects of public concern.

To begin with, there was no consensus in the alliance on a caste census, and it was after much dithering and persuasion that there was an appearance of convergence of opinion on the issue. Con­gress President Mallikarjun Kharge was not initially of the view that it was an issue to be raised at an I.N.D.I.A. meeting. He did not want it to be part of any joint statement of the bloc and wanted to consult other partners, especially West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee.

Another poll-time preoccupation of Rahul Gandhi that raised eyebrows among allies and elsewhere was his tirade against Gautam Adani, who had secured the redevelopment project deal of Asia’s biggest slum Dharavi. The Congress leader, who kept bran­dishing the map of the redevelopment plan at rallies in Maharash­tra, did not even do his homework well enough to know that the contract was given to Adani during the time of the previous Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in which Congress is a partner. The Congress campaign against the Gujarati businessman was immediately called out for duplicity by rivals and, in the process, Rahul Gandhi cut a sorry figure, appearing out of his depth.

The setback in Maharashtra, which comes after losses in Haryana and several other states where Congress has been ei­ther battered to submission or is clinging on as a junior partner thanks to strong regional allies, is a monumental reversal. Let us not forget that Maharashtra is a state with a rich history of social reform, led by pioneering figures such as Jyotirao Phule, Savitribai Phule, and BR Ambedkar. The Phules were trailblazers in the fight against caste discrimination and patriarchy, cham­pioning the cause of education for marginalised communities and women, a revolutionary act during their time. Ambedkar, a key architect of the Constitution and a crusader for Dalit rights, challenged the oppressive caste hierarchy by advocating for social equality and justice. These reformers not only worked to dismantle caste-based and gender-based inequalities but also laid the groundwork for progressive change, making Maharashtra a prominent centre of social and cultural transformation in India.

Furthermore, it is also a state that Congress has lost in addition to dominant and electorally preponderant ones such as Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal, J&K, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and others. From a heady tally of 388 seats once upon a time in UP, Congress is now languishing at its lowest tally at two in the Assem­bly. What this brings to the fore is the abysmal failure of its multiple narratives to browbeat the Modi-led BJP besides misplaced priorities that do not strike a chord with the masses and are incongruous with the changing dynamics of job prospects in the country.

While reservation in jobs was a hot potato in the time of Licence Raj and pre-liberalisation India, the entry of the private sector as employers of choice has changed the rules of engage­ment forever. Which was why the caste census conducted in Bihar did not create ripples.

RAHUL GANDHI CAPITULATED on the values cham­pioned by his own family, including his great grandfather, grandmother, and his father. In 1961, in his letter to then chief ministers, Nehru had said: “I dislike any kind of reservation, more particularly in services. I react strongly against anything which leads to inefficiency and second-rate standards. I want my country to be a first-class country in everything. The moment we encourage the second-rate, we are lost. The only real way to help the Backward group is to give opportunities of good education… But if we go in for reservations on communal and caste basis, we swamp the bright and able people and remain second-rate or third-rate. I am grieved to learn of how far this business of reservation has gone based on communal considerations. It has amazed me to learn that even promotions are based sometimes on communal and caste considerations. This way lays not only folly, but disaster. Let us help the back­ward groups by all means but never at the cost of efficiency. How are we going to build our public sector or indeed any sector with second-rate people?”

More importantly, Rahul Gandhi brought up the issue when it did not have the heft to create political waves that would fetch him electoral divi­dends. For a person who is known to listen less and talk more, contrived messaging has so far proved to be Rahul Gandhi’s undoing.

Much to his anguish and that of his I.N.D.I.A. allies, many of whom he may face in the elections due early next year in Delhi and in UP in 2026, Rahul Gandhi’s outreach to the Other Backward Classes(OBCs) also failed to translate into votes as the Haryana and Maharashtra results confirmed.

Even as the Congress leader doubled down on his demand for a caste census—hoping to divide Hindus along caste lines in a ruse to take on the might of BJP, which wants the Hindu vote base to be intact—he has been unsuccessful in wooing potential and likely beneficia­ries of the caste census such as OBCs, Dalits, and tribal groups. By finding common cause with Muslim groups, some with dubious reputations, he was hoping for a larger Muslim-OBC-Dalit combine to back his party. But of that dream came a nightmare, most likely because the consolidation of Muslim votes generated a counter-po­larisation among Hindus who stood together. Blatantly indulging aggres­sive posturing by Muslim clerics like Maulana Khalil-ur-Rahman Sajjad Nomani of the All-India Muslim Per­sonal Law Board (AIMPLB) also did not help Congress. The AIMPLB had pledged its support to MVA in the just-concluded election. Overall, aligning with groups perceived to have radical Islamist leanings proved counterproductive for Congress, as it not only failed to attract significant voter support but also alienated broader seg­ments of the electorate. On the other hand, in both Haryana and Maharashtra, OBCs and Dalits powered BJP’s spectacular wins.

Rahul Gandhi, who is lost in his own thoughts and deeply dis­tracted, also seemed to have been carried away by the narrative sewed up by a section of pundits that somehow the 99 seats Con­gress won in the Lok Sabha polls this year were way higher than the 240 seats BJP raked in under Modi, who had already served two terms as prime minister. This at a time when all conven­tional wisdom said anti-incumbency would weigh down both Modi and his party. Which meant that where there wasn’t even a flicker of hope for Congress and its allies, Rahul Gandhi and his team saw a landslide and reversal of their sagging fortunes. Such notions of self-importance gave the Congress grandees a sense of daring before hitting the campaign trail. They were seen as endorsing quotas for Muslims in jobs and educational institutions. Rahul Gandhi himself was upbeat that wooing social groups across the spectrum—like the populists of the 1930s in Italy did—would ensure electoral victory.

In the end, however, what remains is a quasi-fictional alliance whose framer is in the opposite camp and whose partners cannot decide who will lead them and what their areas of convergence are. In the absence of a structure or any indication of a sense of purpose or a Lutyens’ Delhi address, in addition to distrust of each other what remains of I.N.D.I.A. is just a brand name. As they say in business, a hollow brand neglects its customer service, fails to meet expectations, and ignores feedback because its primary objective is mere visibility, not long-term goals. What puts the future of this alliance in jeopardy is more than a mere lack of any existing joint sense of purpose. Rahul Gandhi’s impulsive nature and one-track mind form a significant liability that stands in the way of allies coming up with collective aspirations, besides disrupting the process of building consensus.

Assembly elections 2024BJPCongressHaryanaI.N.D.I.A. allianceJharkhandMaharashtraRahul Gandhi