The Deccan Supremacy

SINCE THE RAM MANDIR MOVEMENT PROVIDED THE BHARATIYA Janata Party (BJP) an opportunity to mobilise votes in Karnataka and win four Lok Sabha seats in 1991 on the back of an impressive 29 per cent vote share, the party has entrenched itself in the state’s politics even as its fortunes ebbed and flowed. The domi­nance of Congress and legatees of the Janata Party was hard to displace but the emer­gence of Hindutva politics and BJP’s projection of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as the “Man India awaits” in the 1998 Lok Sabha campaign made Karnataka’s politics a triangular affair. The balance began to shift with the arrival of the next generation of BJP leadership after Narendra Modi was named prime ministerial candidate and the party won 17 of the state’s 28 seats in 2014 and then stamped its authority in 2019 by winning 25 seats.

But while BJP dominated the national elections, winning state polls has tested it. This is partly due to its missteps in managing intra-party rivalries that often pitted grassroots leaders against factional politicos who used their proximity to the party brass in Delhi to good effect. An adverse Lokayukta report led to the resignation of BS Yediyurappa (BSY) as chief minister in 2011, after BJP had outwitted Congress in a closely fought election in 2008. The Lingayat strongman’s prickly response to the controversy did not help, but the manner of his dismissal was ham-handed and the humiliated leader soon left to float a regional outfit that successfully put paid to BJP’s prospects in the May 2013 elections, with Congress forming the government under former Janata Dal (S), or JD(S), leader Siddaramaiah. The chance to consolidate and shut rivals out of the power stakes was lost and Congress got a gilt-edged opportunity to regain its lost influence. It was, however, Congress’ turn to fumble and its central leadership, particularly after the party’s rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, found itself unable to reconcile factional claims even as Yediyurappa returned to the BJP fold and the state’s governance record presented an average score.

Despite its upper hand in national elections, a majority has eluded BJP in state elections where, apart from Congress, JD(S) led by the father-son duo of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy has displayed resilience in the Old Mysuru region even as its numbers in the Assembly declined. After a strong showing in the 1996 General Election and fortuitous twists in the leadership race propelled Deve Gowda to the prime minister’s chair and national recognition, JD(S) has struck deals with both BJP and Congress. Its alliance with BJP in 2006 ended with JD(S)’s reluctance to honour a commitment to split the chief minister’s tenure. In 2018, Congress’ eagerness to prevent BJP from cobbling together a majority led to Kumaraswamy becoming chief minister again. Stranded nine seats short of a majority at 104, BJP was forced to watch from the sidelines as its efforts to win support failed and Congress with 80 seats, de­spite having clearly lost the election, propped up JD(S) which had 37 seats. The hastily struck alliance was promptly hailed as a ‘model’ for secular parties to halt BJP’s success under Modi.

Unwilling to sit it out on the opposition benches, BJP looked to tap discontent in the ruling coalition’s ranks with resigna­tions of Congress and JD(S) MLAs reducing the Kumaraswamy government to a minority. The elaborate process, sometimes referred to as “Operation Lotus”, led to the fall of the government followed by byelections whereby BJP successfully fielded the rebels. Though Yediyurappa was back as chief minister, the BJP leadership began to feel the necessity of a change of guard given his advancing years and the need for a churn similar to other states where the party has ushered in new leaders. The task was handled delicately with Prime Minister Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah ensuring the veteran did not feel slighted. Given that Yediyurappa had cited Modi’s projection as prime minister as a reason for his return to BJP, the prime minister has not missed an opportunity to emphasise his regard for the former chief minister. In 1990, Rajiv Gandhi’s flippant remark, dismissing an ailing Veerendra Patil as chief minister, led to the influential Lingayat community deserting Congress for good. Now that BSY is back with BJP, the party brass is intent on utilis­ing his acumen to the fullest (see interview).

All this has meant that BJP played a high-risk game, first by accepting Congress and JD(S) deserters and then bringing out a change of leadership. In choosing Basavaraj Bommai, BJP opted for another Lingayat and a leader felt to have the tem­perament to deal with competing factional and caste interests. The challenge before BJP was to overcome the handicaps of a regime wherein ministerial representation was skewed due to the exigencies of government formation. The role of powerful MLAs was another limiting factor in BJP’s efforts to unfurl its agenda even as powerful ‘maths (religious congregations)’ raised demands for representation. The party is now in the midst of its most challenging battle—to break the hoodoo that has denied it a majority, making it dependent on crutches provided by de­fectors or unstable alliances. To achieve this, the party needs to overcome dissonance in its ranks which surfaces in the form of sniping among leaders and incumbency caused by the cumber­some process by which the government was formed.

BJP’s poll spearhead is clearly the prime minister who has vis­ited the state with increasing frequency, inaugurating projects and laying the foundations of many others. BJP leader CT Ravi says there is no anti-incumbency against the BJP government and the party has the “people’s support” evident from Modi’s rallies. At a rally at Devangere, culminating the party’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra on March 25, Modi said that the public response showed that voters wanted the return of the “double-engine” govern­ment. BJP is banking on Modi’s image to overshadow incumbent disadvantages. Ravi, however, says even the state leadership is at the forefront of the campaign. “But because Modi is like the sun, his impact was bound to be much more than diyas (lamps)”.

ACCORDING TO RAVI, there are 80 per cent labhartis (ben­eficiaries) of government schemes in Karnataka. In a recent media interaction, Karnataka ministers said conventions of beneficiaries will be held in every district. The Central and state schemes include PM Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Arogya Karnataka, PM Kisan Samman, Raitha Vidyanidhi scholarship, distribution of title deeds to people from nomadic communities, Samman Yojana for weavers, Matru Vandana Yojana, Bhagyalakshmi and Sukanya Samriddhi and Yeshasvini Yojana. The ministers also highlighted schemes like Jan Sevak, Gram One and amendments to the Land Conversion Bill. In its version of social engineering, BJP is looking for a winning formula in reallocating the 4 per cent backward class quota previously slotted for Muslims to two socially influential com­munities—Lingayats and Vokkaligas. While doing away with the Muslim quota under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) head, the community remains eligible to access the 10 per cent reservations for economically weaker sections (EWS) without any caste bar other than an income criterion. BJP leaders point out that an income bar applies to the OBC quotas as well. The government has also fixed “quotas within quotas” for Scheduled Castes (SCs) whose shares have been hiked too. BJP calculates that the changes could lead to crucial gains in vote shares in about 150 of the 224 seats. Asked if the decision came too close to the elections, Ravi, who belongs to the Vokkaliga community, says, “For over a decade it has been debated, but we fulfilled the demand ensuring justice to all communities. Neither Congress nor JD(S) did anything about it.” Since it has bitten the bullet, BJP hopes to reap the benefits.

In the 1970s, Congress leader Devaraj Urs fashioned a caste formula that banked on forging OBCs, Dalits and tribals into a powerful socio-political block. In the more recent past, Con­gress has sought to consolidate the Muslim vote to take on BJP. The basic building blocks for Congress remain the same but the benefits of the Urs blueprint have been uneven. At different times, the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities have contin­ued to enjoy influence. And, most significantly, BJP has begun to rework the social faultlines to overcome the limits of its social base and counter the en bloc voting of Muslims. The saffron outfit’s ambitious play is a likely tipping point in the election which Congress is seeking to counter by pointing to its promo­tion of backward community leaders like Siddaramaiah and allegations of corruption against the government.

So far, BJP has depended on Yediyurappa’s leadership and there are concerns about losing the Lin­gayat community’s allegiance. “BJP is no longer popular among just one commu­nity or only the upper castes. It has the support of every community now,” says BY Vijayendra, BJP state vice president and son of the former chief minister. BSY has maintained that his son will fight the election from family bastion Shikaripura in his place and not from Varuna, where Siddaramaiah is contesting. Fissures were evident with Ravi having said that ticket distribution would be decided by the party’s central leadership although he has not repeated the statement while BSY said he would put the request before the BJP parliamentary board of which the senior leader is a member. BJP is yet to an­nounce its candidates, with sources say­ing that the state level exercise is almost complete. On opposition allegations of corruption against it—a BJP MLA was recently arrested in a bribery case—the party leaders are trying to counterattack by pointing to scams dating to Congress’ terms in office. “Congress is talking of corruption but the people know who is really corrupt. Congress is not just corrupt, it is also morally bankrupt. There are no promising leaders left in the Kar­nataka Congress. When senior leaders fight it out in public, it does not inspire hope. It is no wonder the youth of the state stand by BJP,” says Vijayendra.

“BJP has meddled with reservations just to confuse people ahead of elections, and it has already backfired, with a Banjara seer attempting to hang himself. BJP knows well they cannot implement the new quota matrix. Meanwhile, corruption and law and order remain the real issues in the state,” says Congress MLA Priyank Kharge. “Even Amit Shah, when he addressed the people of Sandur, promised that BJP would deliver a corruption-free government if elect­ed—which means he is acknowledg­ing that corruption is a hot poll issue. How can this party, which stands accused of charging 40 per cent com­missions, be expected to deliver cor­ruption-free governance?”

But the challenge before Congress is, if at all, even more daunting. The Congress-JD(S) experiment had failed to enthuse any of the party leaders, in­cluding Siddaramaiah and his in-house challenger DK Shivakumar. None of the others, such as Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge or M Veerappa Moily, had any affection for the Gowdas. This does not mean that Congress will spurn an al­liance again post-elections but it underscores the forced nature of the previous arrangement. This time round, much of the pre-poll chatter has been about where Siddaramaiah would contest from and the number of loyalists various factional leaders could prop up. “It’s a close contest. As of now Congress seems to have an upper hand, but 35 days is a long time. The big bug for Congress is to see if it can remain united or whether the feud between its leaders, Shi­vakumar and Siddaramaiah, would intensify after the announce­ment of candidates,” says Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst and researcher. A hurdle before Congress is that its central leadership is currently distracted by Rahul Gandhi’s conviction in a defamation case and subsequent disqualification from Parliament. Congress leaders argue the party will not be bogged down by the issue, contending that other opposition parties have lent support over broader concerns re­garding BJP’s high-handed behav­iour and targeting of rivals. But it is unclear how much Rahul Gandhi’s troubles will resonate with voters and unless he received relief in court soon, his own campaigning might be hamstrung. There are similar doubts about the leader’s efforts to raise alle­gations relating to the Adani Group’s overseas holdings and claims that it was helped by the Centre. So far, Con­gress has promised dole for unem­ployed youth, financial assistance to women heads of households, and 200 units of free electricity.

BJP is now in the midst of its most challenging battle—to break the hoodoo that has denied it a majority, making it dependent on crutches provided by defectors or unstable alliances. To achieve this, the party needs to overcome dissonance in its ranks and incumbency caused by the cumbersome
process by which the government was formed

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Political pundits describe the Karnataka battle as a “tough” one, in a state where the ruling party has never returned to power in the last 38 years. BJP, which has never won a clear majority of 113 seats in the state, got 104 in 2018 with a vote share of 36.35 per cent while Congress had a higher vote share of 38.14 per cent with a much smaller number of seats, indicating a concentration of its sup­port in pockets. In 2008, BJP had won 110 seats. Shastri says BJP is focus­ing on Central leaders and schemes; Congress has taken up local issues, making it a fight between two nar­ratives. But BJP leaders say they have not neglected local issues and, as its focus on welfare schemes shows, the party is looking to stitch larger issues, including polarising ones like attacks on Hindu leaders by the banned Popular Front of India (PFI) in coastal Karnataka. The region rooted for BJP in 2018 as well and the party hopes to maintain its edge. Meanwhile, it is assidu­ously working to overcome its weakness in the Mysuru region and in Bengaluru itself where its performance has been below par. To this end, the party is banking on development projects like the new Bengaluru-Mysuru highway and the re-jigging of caste quotas. Minister of Medical Education and Health K Sudhakar says the move to hike reservations for Vokkaligas, taking into con­sideration the “hardships” of the farming community, will yield results in the Gowda belt. “JD(S) claims to be a party for Vokkaligas but they only used caste for their advantage. Here is a party that, at the doorstep of an election, has not shied away from the consequences of giving the community its due. You are bound to see the result of this gesture in Hassan, Mysore, Mandya, Ramanagara, Chikballa­pura, Kolar and Bengaluru Rural— a total of 80-plus seats,” he says.

JD(S)’s strength in the Assem­bly has certainly fallen from the 54 it had in 2004 and it too faces a fight for survival. The loss of the Mandya Lok Sabha seat where Sumalatha Ambareesh defeated Kumaras­wamy’s son Nikhil rankles and the prospect of more reverses will worry the party. Leaders like Sud­hakar claim that Bommai has the support of significant sections of Vokkaligas and adds that BJP will set a new precedent by assimi­lating Hindu support across Vokkaligas and Lingayats. Sudhakar, the MLA from Chikballapur, was among the 15 legislators who resigned in 2019, bringing down the Congress-JD(S) coalition. “I expect us to go from zero to five-to-eight seats out of 15 in these districts. If I cannot add value to the party, I cannot call myself a leader. Only BJP has the organisational structure and clarity to inspire leaders like me who were outsiders,” he says. Settling the tussle with JD(S) in the Gowdas’ backyard is a crucial test for BJP, one which can make the difference between emerging as the single-largest party and gaining a clear majority. But BJP functionaries said the party is paying equal importance to other regions, such as north Karnataka where Congress won seats in 2018 and this has led to a saturation ap­proach where concrete deliverables in terms of welfare schemes and cultural-emotional matters like the Belagavi issue were being ad­dressed with equal alacrity.

The Karnataka election has a significant bearing on Congress’ fortunes; it is mostly a direct clash with BJP and comes after a near-wipeout in state polls in the northeast where the party once held unquestioned sway. If it checks BJP in Karnataka, Congress’ stock will rise, forcing regional opposition parties that have been largely dismissive of the party to take it more seriously

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In the Congress ranks, Siddara­maiah remains its most popular face with a pro-poor appeal. But it does not seem likely that he will be given the charge of the party’s campaign with his influential rival and state Congress chief Shi­vakumar occupying a prime perch. Congress cannot do without the resourceful Shivakumar who has declared assets of more than `840 crore and has been arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money-laundering case. He is currently out on regular bail. The tussle for control of the party’s affairs has meant that Siddara­maiah has been caught in an unnecessary speculation over which seat he would contest, having expressed a preference for Kolar. The Congress first list has named him as candidate from Varuna, currently held by his son Yathindra. The Karnataka election has a significant bearing on Congress’ fortunes as it is; for the most part it is a direct clash with BJP and comes after a near-wipeout in state polls in the Northeast where the party once held unquestioned sway. If it checks BJP in Karnataka, Congress’ stock will rise, forc­ing regional opposition parties that have been largely dismissive of the party’s claim to be the fulcrum of anti-BJP politics to take it more seriously. Amit Shah made a sharp point when he told ral­lies recently that Congress was looking to turn Karnataka into its “ATM” and should be rejected, indicating that BJP is keenly aware of the importance of the outcome of the polls. BJP’s burdens of running a coalition government offer Congress an opening but the party needs to build a viable narrative once the campaigning heats up and the Modi bandwagon rolls into the state. “At the end of the day these are all perception battles. As I have said before, Congress has the knack of snatching defeats from the jaws of vic­tory,” says Shastri.

BJP is focused on putting together a rainbow social coalition and this includes efforts to get popular celebrities to support it. The decision of popular actor Kichcha Sudeep to campaign for BJP is touted as an example of the party’s growing support in contrast to the opposition it has faced in intellectual and cultural circles. The actor hails from the Valmiki Nayaka community, categorised as an ST in the state. BJP has been working to loosen Congress’ tra­ditional grip on Dalits and tribals who have been the opposition party’s mainstay. To this end, BJP has organised major rallies where Modi has given hakku patras, or property ownership documents, to members of the Banjara tribes considered to suffer from historical development deficits. The other Nayaka tribe sub-sects Parivara and Talawara, previously excluded from the ST list, have been included since 2018. Such micro-planning touches on specific social groups, many of which have been in the rain shadow of development and economic progress. As the prime minister has emphasised during his visits to Karnataka, BJP has taken up basic health, housing and educational needs, along with building modern infrastructure, while Congress has been more interested in filling its coffers than catering to the needs of the people of Karnataka.

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‘The decision to hike reservations for almost all communities has struck a chord’ ~ by V Shoba
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Rajeev Deshpande

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Amita Shah

V Shoba

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