Global Alert

SPACE ODDITIES

With more than 13,000 satellites orbit­ing Earth, the space race has become complex far beyond governments, with the private sector, advancing technology and declining costs helming it. Accord­ing to one estimate, $445 billion of a total $570 in space industry revenue came from commercial activities in 2023. The space economy could be $1 trillion by 2030. While the US still remains at the head of the race, it is no longer alone. True, India has only 110-odd satellites up there compared to America’s 8,679 or China’s 1,057, and its overall ranking is 10, with a low 21 for space tech trade pulling down its far better 6 and 6 for activity and funding (data from the Economist Intelligence Unit). But industrial changes will make India’s space sector steadily complex too. Globally, as the focus shifts from infra­structure to overtly commercial purposes like tourism and mining, India is already in top gear for usage of Earth observation data. The zero possibility of cooperation between the US-EU on one hand and China-Russia on the other can slow things down but it could be just what helps India speed up.
Probability HIGH

CAPTAIN AMERICA

After 250 years in the wilderness, the bald eagle is finally America’s national bird. There couldn’t be a more fitting welcome for Trump 2.0. Donald Trump’s salience as a cultural warrior is dismissed as championing either kitsch or America’s worst instincts. A pro­vocative piece in UnHerd last week said: “It is indeed the adherence to and championing of the uniqueness of the American covenant that separates Donald Trump from both his ostensible allies such as Tucker Carlson and J.D. Vance on the Right, and his anti-exceptional­ist opponents and critics such as Barack Obama and his progressive allies on the Left.” What if Trump is that president who can navigate cultural America between the cesspools of woke extremism on the left and hate-mongering on the right?
Probability LOW

GOING ROGUE

Move over North Korea and Iran. Russia and China are the G2 of wannabe rogue states. Russia’s shadow oil fleet has been cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Led by Finland, Estonia, Germany and Denmark, the EU is battle-ready to nail what’s evidently too much of a pattern to be accidents. Ships in Russia’s shadow fleet, flying false flags or re-registered elsewhere to evade sanctions, and apparently a few Chinese vessels too, have been dragging their anchors on the shallow sea bed of the Baltic and repeatedly damaging vital infra­structure. Coupled with revelations about a GRU (Russia’s military intelligence agency) plot to place incendiary devices on cargo planes flying to the US and Western Europe, it seems Moscow has abandoned its last scruples and the Chinese are learning fast. If this is the latest chapter in hybrid warfare, we will see more, not less, of it.
Probability HIGH

WINDS OF WAR

More than half the world is geopolitically hot at present. The two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, one static and the other dynamic, need just another flashpoint to make 2025 the year of the long-dreaded global war. Chinese aggression around Taiwan, with intrusive naval exercises, and North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine are by themselves not heralds of World War III. Yet a mistake or complication in one the­atre could trigger things on a bigger scale. Much depends on the Trump administration’s success in de-escalating the Middle East conflict, helped by good sense in Jerusalem and Tehran. But de-escalation will not reduce the threat to global energy supplies and trade. Meanwhile, as Ger­many votes right in February’s federal elections and France continues to fight itself, what the political turn in continental Europe and Trump’s priorities do to the Ukraine war could have conse­quences elsewhere. Now, is a ceasefire in Ukraine, and a Russia that has quietened down, good or bad for Taiwan? Only Xi Jinping knows.
Probability MODERATE

NUCLEAR RESCUE

If communism was the biggest failure of the last century, the EV is of this one—to date. But clean energy cannot be stillborn given imminent Climate Armageddon. If battery instability and range are the EV’s bane, what about a small reactor in your car that can power you across the planet? Clean energy from nuclear fusion, not dependent on weather and sunlight, might be the best long-term solution and our shared future. Elon Musk reportedly has plans to build such mini-reactors but China is already testing them. Even as Trump is vilified for turn­ing the clock back on clean energy, he could greenlight nuclear fusion for commercial use. It’s a long and winding road but the time to start was yesterday.
Probability MODERATE

Donald TrumpForecast 2025nuclearspace explorationVladimir Putinworld affairsXi Jinping