Disruptor-In-Chief

DONALD J TRUMP’S RETURN TO power from the depths of lawfare and despair of political exile is remarkable by any definition. Once seen as fantastical, the idea became hard reality as Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the US.

“Many people thought it was impossi­ble for me to stage such a historic political comeback, but as you can see today, here I am. The American people have spoken,” he said in his inaugural address. That indeed is the essence of the story. Voters brought him back to fix an America gone wild—whether on cultural issues or bor­der security or funding of foreign wars. And to fix the economy.

Trump’s second coming is not an aberration, nor anomaly. It is a “vibe shift” in favour of what he called a “revolution of common sense” against an ever deepening bow to left-liberal ideas. Some call it a rightward move to rob it of legitimacy; oth­ers dismiss it as a pendulum swing and await his departure. But for the next four years, he is a fact of life. And because he is Trump, nothing will be muted or left unsaid. Everything will come in bold letters, loud and clear.

America First is the motto and it comes with no olive branch to the rest of the world. Countries, including India, will watch and assess before making up their mind on how to face, side step, duck, ignore or confront this version of Trump. He is more deter­mined, more experienced, and more ready to extract his pound of flesh from others. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was in Washington to attend the inauguration, meet and greet some of the new players, including his counterpart, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and to find clues.

Trump took the oath of office in the Capitol Rotunda, the same building where his supporters ran amok four years ago, attacking the police and destroying offices of members of Con­gress. One of his first acts as president was to pardon more than 1,500 of them, including those convicted of assault.

Was it an endorsement of political violence or revenge against the Democrats who hunted him for eight years? As president, Trump is free of multiple legal cases and he is going to make sure his “patriots” are too. Joe Biden did one better—he pre-emptively pardoned his siblings and their spouses in the last remaining minutes of his presidency in case Trump went after them for making money off the Biden name. This is America’s new reality.

Trump wants to reverse gear, change course, and usher in a “golden age of America” and halt the decline. In his inaugural speech he promised to declare an emergency on the southern border, deport “criminal aliens”, end gender and diversity initia­tives, drill for more oil and gas, get out of the Paris climate change agreement, collect tariffs and revenue from foreign countries through an External Revenue Service, rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, take back the Panama Canal, plant the US flag on Mars, save TikTok, and end automatic citizenship for children born in the US to non-citizens. The last will impact thousands of Indians on various kinds of temporary visas. And that’s not even all of it.

To show he meant business, Trump signed more than 26 ex­ecutive orders within hours of being sworn in. Curating a reality show of his own, he signed some in front of journalists while answering their questions and others in front of thousands of MAGA supporters gathered in a stadium. He made the MAGA people part of the Trump show so they wouldn’t feel deprived. Many had flown in from different cities to attend the outdoor in­auguration and walk behind him in the parade but cold weather forced the ceremony indoors to the Capitol Rotunda—a much smaller space—and suddenly their invitations were no good.

The new MAGA of tech bros (Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, et al) was invited indoors and played a visible role in the inauguration ceremony. But Vivek Ramaswamy, who too was there, had been iced out after a self-goal on X over Christ­mas when he denounced American work culture and by implica­tion, Americans, for “venerating mediocrity over excellence.” A good Tam Bram would never do that. Musk & Co enjoyed front-row seats. Incidentally, cabinet members were relegated to the back row and were craning to see and be seen. Tech titans over cabinet slogs may also be America’s new reality. For now.

What About India?

Trump by definition means disruption. He is the boss of it. Then there is unpredictability, a badge of honour he wears all the time to intimidate and coerce opponents and rivals. It helps that Trump enjoys a warm friendship with Narendra Modi and understands the Indian prime minister’s aspirations to make India a developed country. The problem is that Trump has his own aspirations to make America a manufacturing hub again. A clash of aspirations is likely, if not inevitable.

It also helps that India has the ability and willingness to de­fend itself—it’s not dependent on the US for security. Trump cannot accuse India of “freeloading” as he does European and other allies every chance he gets. If anything, India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has grown in recent years but especially since the Israel-Gaza war.

The most important signal from Delhi’s point of view would be Trump’s take on China. What policy the president finally adopts will determine the space and options India has going for­ward. Will he remain fundamentally adversarial to China—after all, Trump identified China as America’s main rival—or will he cut deals so long as he can create jobs at home and collect revenue from the Asian giant? It’s good to remember that Musk might be a factor given his deep investments in China.

TRUMP’S EFFORTS TO save TikTok, despite the app being a spying tool for Beijing and despite a US law requiring the company to sell to a US buyer and the US Supreme Court unanimously upholding the law, are troubling. He seems not to be bothered by the national security implications of who TikTok’s owners are and that they are answerable to China. The company comes under Chinese laws on intelligence, cyberse­curity, state secrets and encryption. Trump delayed the ban on TikTok for 75 days through an executive order. It was among more than 26 he signed on the first day.

Indian diplomats are hopeful that key officials in his cabinet, most of whom are critical of China, will hold sway. Rubio and Na­tional Security Advisor (NSA) Mike Waltz are both China hawks and have spoken extensively about Beijing’s all-encompassing plans to influence, penetrate and undermine US society while expanding its military strength. Rubio said China was “the most potent, dangerous and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted” during his Senate confirmation hearing last week.

Since China tends to overplay its hand and under-deliver on its promises, it might push Trump to join the Washington consensus. Delhi will prepare for both possibilities and everything in between while building its own military capabilities to better deter China.

Officially India is not anxiety-ridden about Trump 2.0 main­ly because the relationship did well and grew during the first Trump administration in ways no one could have predicted. While there was acrimony over trade issues—and there likely will be again—his administration delivered on several important strategic fronts. It approved the sale of armed Predator drones to India, a deal the Biden team concluded; it shared real-time intelligence during the 2020 Galwan crisis; it revived the Quad, the group comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India aimed at countering China; and it crafted the early Indo-Pacific policy which today is a byword for a better balance of power in Asia.

That the first foreign policy engagement of the second Trump administration was a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting chaired by Rubio signals continuity from Trump to Biden to Trump again. As Jaishankar said, the Tuesday meeting “underlines the priority it [Quad] has in the foreign policy of member states.” It seems the dominant idea to emerge was to think bigger, deepen the agenda and intensify collaboration. In other words, India will be asked to do more burden-sharing and develop more stakes in the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.

STRATEGIC ISSUES MAY not pose immediate problems but trade and immigration will be challenging for India from the start. Trump has called India the “tariff king” and worse in the past. His threat to impose 10-20 per cent tariffs on all imports and hit those who enjoy a trade surplus—India does— even harder has probably woken up the commerce ministry in Delhi. During the first Trump administration, India and the US came close to a trade agreement after a series of long and painful negotiations but things fell apart in the end for which the US side blamed Indian negotiators. And Trump has an elephantine memory about why he could not get a “big deal” with India.

Trade experts and former officials say India should make an of­fer and get ahead of the problem. Trump has already announced a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico from next month and put China’s trade policies under review. No one is going to escape the dragnet. All the talk about “friend-shoring” under Biden is likely to become “re-shoring” back to the US under Trump; not that India exploited the opportunity effectively.

The immigration issue will be another challenge on the bilat­eral front. Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigrants is expected to start this week with thousands in danger of being deported. Indians have become the third-largest group of illegal immigrants in the US. The Pew Research Center estimates the number to be around 725,000 but it is likely higher because not all cases are recorded.

More than 1,100 Indians were deported under Biden and reports say thousands more have been identified by the US Im­migration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Most of the illegals come from Punjab and Gujarat—one India’s breadbasket and the other the celebrated home state of the prime minister. Delhi appears to be proactive on this issue lest it become a source of friction early in the Trump administration. Reports say Delhi is prepared to cooperate on taking back 18,000 illegal Indian migrants already in the US system and slated for deportation.

The hope is that repatriating the unwanted would reduce the heat on Indians working legally on H-1B visas. India has been the largest beneficiary of the programme for years, making Indians a target of wrath. Long a divisive and sensitive issue, H-1B visas caused a virtual intra-MAGA war on X in December, making Ramaswamy a casualty. Broadly speaking, those opposed say the H-1B programme is abused, rigged, and robs “real” Ameri­cans of jobs because Indians are willing to work for lower wages. Those in favour say the H-1Bs fill a gap because there is a shortage of talent. The truth lies some­where in between.

Indian politicians and diplo­mats will have to navigate the difficult issues skilfully while being prepared for surprises. The truth is that both countries need each other but “the art of the deal” is making the other feel they need you more. In many ways, Trump is more transparent and direct in his demands than most others and once convinced he has got a good deal, he should be willing to strengthen and deepen the India partnership.

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