A Muddled Message

AMIDST THE QUARREL AND WAR OF words among its key constituents, the Indian Na­tional Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) bloc, which comprises 28 non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties, including Congress, faces all the worst prospects this year for any poll battle. Ancient Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu had proposed in his work, The Art of War, when not to engage in a conflict. One such condition, according to him, was “if you know neither the enemy nor yourself”. The outcome, he says, is that “you will succumb in every battle”. Underrating the enemy is what BJP’s opponents have invariably done over the past several years. Overestimating one’s strength—meaning not know­ing what you are capable of, or what you are—appears to be a characteristic of the alliance formed in mid-2023 to take on the might of the ruling dispensation, vowing to unseat it in this year’s General Election. The best-case strategic scenario Sun Tzu advocates for battle readiness encapsulates the federal ruling alliance’s understanding of the political situation in the country: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”

In the opposition camp, major players are vying for domi­nance with political one-upmanship, both inside and outside of the alliance’s meetings, which have taken place four times so far. Conceived as a counterweight to the BJP-led National Democrat­ic Alliance (NDA), it is in disarray with charges being hurled at one another, especially since the humiliating drubbing the main opposition Congress received in three of the four state elections held recently. Congress had hoped to use any poll triumph as a bargaining tool in seat-sharing negotiations for the 2024 national elections. But the loss has emboldened regional allies to flex their muscles and assert themselves. On the other hand, NDA remains a cohesive political force under the captaincy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and is forging ahead with its outreach to people, including its Vikas Bharat Sankalp Yatra to connect with the ben­eficiaries of government schemes. In sharp contrast with the clarity with which the ruling front is bracing for the polls due this year, the I.N.D.I.A. grouping comes across as an alliance of convenience with neither message nor messenger.

The strange, garbled agenda of the alliance is for all to see thanks to a kangaroo group within it, led by the likes of Trin­amool Congress (TMC) leader and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. The fourth meeting of I.N.D.I.A. held on December 19 is an indicator of what lies ahead for the anti-BJP combine this year.

Banerjee proposed the name of 81-year-old Congress presi­dent Mallikarjun Kharge, who is also the leader of the opposi­tion in Rajya Sabha, for prime minister. As is well known, such suggestions don’t go down well with the first family of Con­gress, comprising Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Kejriwal, who has a long history of hostile ties with Congress, backed Banerjee, stating that he too had a vision of sorts about the propriety of fielding Kharge as the prime min­isterial candidate. He argued that there are only three solid vote banks in India, namely Brahmins, Dalits, and Muslims, and that Kharge was the man of the moment. Kharge responded by saying that he had never asserted his Dalit identity. Talking to reporters after the meeting, he said, “First we have to win and get a majority, then MPs will decide democratically about who will be the prime ministerial face.”

What ensued was disenchantment among other aspirants to the throne. Although no public statements were made, sev­eral insiders say that the likes of Rahul Gandhi and Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar were not pleased with Banerjee and Kejriwal rooting for Kharge. Amidst a flurry of such reports that confirmed internal bicker­ing, Kumar spoke to reporters and said that he was not upset with the proceedings at the I.N.D.I.A. meeting in New Delhi. He said he had no personal ambition and was only interested in uniting the opposition parties ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

But the December 19 meeting was followed by the pub­lic display of disaffection among I.N.D.I.A. partners, hinting that such differences are par for the course in an alliance cobbled together for the sole purpose of taking on Modi. On December 31, 2023, West Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury sharply attacked Banerjee, saying that she has ruined the prospects of the alliance in West Bengal. “Didi [Mamata Banerjee] is ruining the prospect of the alliance in the state. If you listen to what she said, it will be clear that she did not want an alliance. Her party says that it is interested in the alliance nationally, but not in Bengal,” he said, referring to a statement by the West Bengal chief minister. TMC is averse to offering anything more than two seats to Congress in the national polls—Berhampore and Malda South—which the latter had won in the 2019 polls. Banerjee contends that only her party can defeat BJP in the Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, a claim Congress finds a rigid stance. The choice of words is proof of the lack of trust and cohesion among some of the major partners. Chowdhury used expressions such as “afflicted with the cancer of corruption” to describe TMC, his I.N.D.I.A. ally.

The loud declarations of multiple constituents of the bloc suggest that thrashing out a seat-sharing formula among them will be easier said than done. More parties have come forward to say they will go it alone in states where they claim they are a force to reckon with. Shiv Sena (UBT) lawmaker Sanjay Raut indicated in late December that seat-sharing talks won’t be a smooth af­fair when it comes to Maharashtra and that fresh cracks have appeared within I.N.D.I.A. “We have always said that Shiv Sena has always been fighting on 23 seats in the Lok Sabha elections including Dadra and Nagar Haveli and that will be firm,” Raut said. Congress leaders from the state responded sharply to his remarks, saying Congress has a crucial role to play in the state.

Meanwhile, Banerjee’s proposal that Priyanka Gandhi con­test from Varanasi against Modi was also not seen by Congress as a viable option. The fourth meeting of the bloc made no deci­sions on having a prime ministerial face or on a collective set of agendas to take on the incumbent government in the 2024 polls. The two-hour-long meeting merely resulted in the deci­sion to hold joint protests against the mass suspension of oppo­sition MPs during the Winter Session of Parliament. This was besides adopting a resolution that expressed doubts about the electronic voting machines (EVMs) and suggesting that voter-verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT) slips should be handed to the voters. As many as 142 opposition MPs were suspended from both Houses of Parliament for their conduct while rais­ing the issue of the December 13 Parliament security breach.

Along expected lines, harsher words were exchanged be­tween AAP and Congress members after Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann made a scathing attack on Congress, spurring further escalations in the rift among I.N.D.I.A. partners. Mann took a dig at Congress on January 1 by saying that the shortest story that a mother can narrate to her child in Delhi or Punjab will be “Ek thi Congress (Once there was a Congress).” Congress leader Sandeep Dikshit on January 2 responded to Mann by saying that soon, mothers would say that there was a party that could now be found in Tihar Jail. With only a few months left for the 2024 national polls, such fissures threaten to endanger the alliance stitched up with the ambitious goal of battering BJP at the hustings. The bloc doesn’t have much time left to finalise its seat-sharing arrangement and begin campaigns. BJP, on the other hand, has been in a perpetual campaign mode and is exuding confidence, especially after its recent electoral triumphs.

Worse, compared with the 2019 polls, BJP has had a win­ning streak and the sway of Modi as a campaign spearhead of the ruling party seems to have only grown. Optics also favours the ruling combine in most parts of the country, especially the Hindi heartland that accounts for a large chunk of Lok Sabha seats. Before the 2019 polls, BJP had lost power in the states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. It has won them this time round. A triumphant BJP feels that being in power at the Centre has only strengthened it as an electoral force. In short, the opposition has not been able to mobilise the masses against the ruling government at the centre. Much to the anguish of the opposition, its recklessness as a coalition has scared off potential voters, as recent state elections prove. Pundits say voters are likely to sense a high level of insecurity among I.N.D.I.A. constituents thanks to internal squabbling. Simply put, the opposition parties are much less prepared than they were five years ago.

CONGRESS SCION Rahul Gandhi has not been able to step into the role of a contender after failing to make an impact in elections with the issues he has brought up and the marches he has led. Gandhi relies on the likes of former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan, former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Kaushik Basu, and Sam Pitroda on economy and technology. None of the subjects the Congress leader raised with the hope of upsetting the ruling party has clicked so far. That ranges from the attack on the Adani Group, EVMs, the South vs North debate, and so on. In fact, on January 3, a three-judge Bench of the Supreme Court refused to order a probe by a Spe­cial Investigation Team (SIT) into the allegations levelled in the Hindenburg Research report that the Adani group indulged in stock price manipulations. It said there was no ground to doubt the probe into the matter by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The court added, “The SEBI, as an investigative agency of the Union government, shall probe into whether the loss suffered by Indian investors due to the conduct of the Hin­denburg research and any other entities in taking short position involved any infraction of law, and if so, suitable action shall be taken.” Earlier in September, the Supreme Court had declined to entertain a plea seeking an independent audit of the source code of EVMs used by the Election Commission. It said that no “actionable material” was placed to indicate that the poll panel was in breach of its “constitutional mandate”, according to reports. In November 2019, the apex court had rejected all the petitions related to the Rafale jet deal, another charge brought to public attention by Rahul Gandhi with minimal impact. A year before that, the court had given a clean chit to the Modi govern­ment on allegations of irregularities in the procurement of 36 Rafale fighter jets by India from France.

Apart from Instagrammable photographs from different locations, Rahul Gandhi has not been able to strike a chord with the people and influence voters. Besides having non-political advisers for company, he is surrounded in the new bloc by lead­ers like Sharad Pawar, Lalu Prasad, and Nitish Kumar, all seen as politicians past their expiry date, adding to the woes of any contrived effort to create an anti-Modi entity and still hope to pull in votes. None of his programmes stopped BJP from breezing to victory in multiple elections. It is not that there aren’t formidable headwinds against BJP, but Congress lacks the imagination and political heft to tap them. The trend shows no signs of changing.

Analysts also forecast that the newly constituted alliance will not only cannibalise each other in some states but will also have to shoulder the blame for statements made by their partners. Attacks by allies against Sanatana Dharma and North Indians are not going to be taken kindly by voters in the elec­tions this year, they aver.

Thanks to the development efforts of the Central govern­ment across states acting as a driving force for the economy and its performance-linked incentives schemes (PLIS) promoting domestic production, the average Indian is looking to climb the social ladder and embrace stability, note pundits. A laidback and crisis-ridden opposition with a muddled message is no threat to a vibrant ruling entity and its unchallenged reign.

Arvind KejriwalForecast 2024I.N.D.I.A.Mallikarjun KhargeMamata BanerjeeNitish KumarOpposition partiespoliticsRahul Gandhi