Water As Weapon

WAR, TO THE population of the countries that are partici­pating in it, is often experienced like that famous Ernest Hemingway line on becoming bankrupt—gradually and then suddenly. It begins with just some parts of the standing armies having engagements on border regions, then it spreads, there is mass mobilisation and the theatre ex­pands until no part of the population remains untouched. That is how the Ukrainians woke up to a dam being destroyed and vast swathes below being inundated, a markedly different horror to missiles raining down. The trajectory of such escala­tion is not surprising either. War is a zero-sum game as long as both parties refuse to temper their expectations—one’s survival is dependent on the other’s total defeat. Mankind is fortunate that at present the stakes are considerably lesser. In earlier ages, defeat meant populations being massacred or sold into slavery. Now, civilisation has progressed just about enough for mainline nations to be slightly more civil. They are usual­ly satisfied with territory and repara­tion is the word for what used to pass for plunder earlier. Until that point, which eventually Russia and Ukraine must hopefully reach, the scale of the actions will keep increasing.

Destroying a dam is almost epic in its fallout to innocents, killing and uprooting ordinary families who want nothing more than to lead their lives. Yet, it is not even clear whether this was Russia’s doing or whether the Ukrainians did it to themselves after a failed counteroffensive. Last year in the Washington Post, a Ukrainian general had stated that they had such a strategy as a last resort and had even tested it. Russia now touts it as proof. Dams are good targets in war because one relatively small successful event can lead to outsized damage. In World War II, the Russians and the British targeted dams for military objectives. In recent times, even the US is said to have done it. The NGO International Rivers in its website has an article on the weaponisation of water, and it mentions: “In March 2017, the Pentagon bombed Syria’s largest dam on Euphrates, Tabqa. The disaster was only averted by workers at the dam’s hydropower plant risking their lives to prevent the dam from overflowing.”

If ever India has a war with Pakistan or China, it doesn’t take too much to imagine what will happen to dams; all sides have the missile power. What is a deterrent is the tit-for-tat nature of such attacks but that, as we see in the Russia-Ukraine war, only lasts up to a point. Human societies have evolved beyond barbarism, but all wars tell you that is just a façade. Soon, countries run out of patience and rationality to hurtle towards mutual doom. It took 15 months in this war for a tipping point to be reached and eventually there will be another and then one more, until the nuclear option becomes ominously closer.

damsmissile attacksRussia invades UkraineWar timewater bodies