UPset and SetUP

Political strategist Prashant Kishor’s previous survey on Uttar Pradesh (UP) consistently demonstrated to the Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee that BJP will return to power in the state. That explains why Banerjee didn’t contest any seat in UP despite visiting the state twice in recent times. But will BJP’s victory mood sustain until the 2024 General Election? Banerjee believes it won’t—after the BJP victory in UP, the real opposition consolidation will take place. But why did she go to UP at all? Because she wanted to show solidarity with Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, and possibly pave the way for a national career down the line.

Hidden Agenda

Satyapal Malik started his governorship with Bihar and later got the prize posting of Jammu & Kashmir. In Jammu & Kashmir, he toed the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) line and even dissolved the Assembly in 2018 without allowing the opposition to prove their claim on the floor of the House. Later, however, as governor of Goa, he pointed out that the BJP government there was corrupt. Malik is continuing his tirade as governor of Meghalaya, where BJP is part of the ruling coalition. Earlier, he even criticised BJP over the farmers’ protests and is known to publicly rebuke Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government over its policies. Though Malik’s retirement is due in September, rumour has it that he is desperate to stay relevant—this time, as the opposition candidate for the president or vice president’s chair. So, he may even resign in protest before completing his term as Meghalaya governor.

The Pitfall.

Congress’ overall failure in the just-concluded Assembly elections has given rise to the question of who will lead the party—Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. While Priyanka’s outgoing nature and efforts have been appreciated, Rahul’s reluctance to go to UP has also been noticed. There is talk inside Congress that Priyanka should now take over the party leadership. However, a few days back, her husband Robert Vadra declared that he will be fighting the General Election in 2024 from his hometown, Moradabad. The announcement has divided opinion in Congress as many workers feel that Vadra’s ambition may give BJP a weapon to smash Priyanka’s ascendency—the ruling party may go hammer and tongs in the alleged DLF land grab case where Vadra stands co-accused.

Vote Bank Politics

Prior to the UP election results, there was stiff competition between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress for the third position in the state. Though both BSP and Congress fared miserably in the polls, ranking far below the coveted third position, the duo was seen fighting for vote banks on March 9, a day before the results were declared. Insiders say both Congress and BSP were thrashing out how much Muslim or Jat votes they had garnered despite their eventual whitewash at the hustings.

A Calibrated Move

During the recent evacuation of students from Ukraine, Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi was rather active as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was busy with meetings across Europe. She met the students on their arrival at the country’s airport, as did other Union ministers Jyotiraditya Scindia, VK Singh and Hardeep Singh Puri. It was a well-orchestrated move by the Prime Minister’s Office, which constantly relied on inputs from Vijay Chauthaiwale, the foreign department head of BJP who played a key role in organising Modi’s NRI outreach.

The Good Neighbour

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called up Narendra Modi.to express her gratitude after India’s successful evacuation programme, which also airlifted several students from neighbouring countries, including Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Hasina is learnt to have praised Modi’s bold move, giving a fillip to India-Bangladesh ties.

Man of the Moment

In the just-concluded Assam municipal elections, BJP bagged 77 out of 80 seats. And with Congress making the grade in only one seat, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has again become the toast of BJP. He’s already heading BJP’s forays in the Northeast, and is known to have scripted the party’s recent victory in Manipur. BJP is now banking on Sarma to retain power in Tripura as it goes to the polls next year.

The Consensus Man

As BJP’s poll in-charge of UP, Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan has earned plaudits from both Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. After all, he spent sleepless nights trying to resolve conflict and brought regional leaders together. And having chemistry with Modi, Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, he became the consensus man in Lucknow.

Assembly election 2022Mamata BanerjeepoliticsPrashant KishorUttar Pradesh